Why did IMD declare monsoon early?
Has the monsoon arrived? Here’s what the norm has been: If, after May 10, at least 60% of 14 stations — Minicoy, Amini, Thiruvananthapuram, Punalur, Kollam, Allapuzha, Kottayam, Kochi, Thrissur, Kozhikode, Thalassery, Kannur, Kudulu and Mangalore — report rainfall of 2.5 mm or more for two consecutive days, the onset of the monsoon over Kerala will be declared on the second day, provided the wind pattern is south-westerly and Outgoing Longwave Radiation is low. IMD in a statement on Sunday said the depth and strength of westerly winds had increased; that cloudiness over southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining areas of Kerala had improved meeting the outgoing long wave radiation criterion; and that there has been widespread rainfall activity over Kerala during the previous 24 hours and that out of 14 rainfall monitoring stations evaluated for declaring onset of monsoon over Kerala, 10 stations received rainfall of 2.5 mm or more. There is political pressure to declare monsoon onset but these aspects are important.” “Declaring a weak onset of the monsoon could be a challenging task since the rainfall criterion often remains on the borderline. However, the onset criteria must not be overlooked since it could affect research and planning of agricultural activities in India,” added Deoras who also analysed data from IMD’s 14 stations on Sunday and Monday.
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