Why Reform will struggle to win any seats – despite beating the Tories in the polls
6 months, 1 week ago

Why Reform will struggle to win any seats – despite beating the Tories in the polls

The Telegraph  

In a situation where, uniformly across all seats, each vote gained by Reform was stolen solely from the Conservatives, the party would need to see its share increase by 12 points before it started picking up seats. If every Conservative voter abandoned the party and threw their weight behind Reform, its share would rise to 30 per cent. If there was a uniform 12-point swing to Reform in every seat from current polling levels, Reform would return three MPs: Mr Farage in Clacton, Richard Tice in Boston and Skegness and a third in New Forest East. In a second scenario, where for every two votes Reform steals from the Conservatives, it takes one from Labour, Reform getting an MP elected is more within reach.

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History of this topic

Mapped: Reform won five seats, but made gains in hundreds
5 months, 2 weeks ago

Mapped: Reform won five seats, but made gains in hundreds

The Independent  

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inbox Get our free View from Westminster email Please enter a valid email address Please enter a valid email address SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Please try again later {{ /verifyErrors }} Reform made gains …

Nigel Farage just 364,474 votes shy of becoming leader of the opposition, analysis shows
5 months, 2 weeks ago

Nigel Farage just 364,474 votes shy of becoming leader of the opposition, analysis shows

The Independent  

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inbox Get our free View from Westminster email Please enter a valid email address Please enter a valid email address SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Please try again later {{ /verifyErrors }} Nigel Farage’s Reform …

Revealed: The real extent of Reform’s damage to the Tories
5 months, 2 weeks ago

Revealed: The real extent of Reform’s damage to the Tories

The Telegraph  

Applying this logic to the full results from election night lays bare the toll caused by the splitting of the Right-wing vote. Labour’s landslide 411-seat haul drops to 349 without Reform on the ballot paper, reducing their majority by almost three-quarters from 172 to just 48. Reform had been gaining ground in voting intention polls for months – usurping the …

UK election results 2024: Why do some popular parties win so few seats?
5 months, 2 weeks ago

UK election results 2024: Why do some popular parties win so few seats?

Al Jazeera  

Reform UK has won just four seats with 14 percent of the vote, while Conservatives got 121 seats on 24 percent – why? Conversely, Reform UK, the far-right party campaigning on issues such as immigration, has received 14 percent of the votes so far, but only four seats, or 0.6 percent of the total. Labour Party: 35 percent vote share, …

'This is huge': Nigel Farage claims Reform is on course to win six million votes as exit poll suggests he will lead a 13-strong group of party MPs in the Commons - with right-wingers finishing above C
5 months, 2 weeks ago

'This is huge': Nigel Farage claims Reform is on course to win six million votes as exit poll suggests he will lead a 13-strong group of party MPs in the Commons - with right-wingers finishing above C

Daily Mail  

Nigel Farage claimed a 'huge' win tonight as an election exit poll suggested he will lead a squad of 13 Reform UK MPs in the Commons, causing a crisis for the Tories. It has been said that Reform's wide but thin support would not help their success in a first-past-the-post system and Mr Farage has been vocal about the need …

Our new “mega-poll” gives Labour an expected majority of 280 seats
5 months, 4 weeks ago

Our new “mega-poll” gives Labour an expected majority of 280 seats

The Economist  

N ATIONWIDE OPINION polls in Britain have long made clear that the Labour Party is on track to win the overall popular vote by a thumping margin. Using these data, we built a statistical model—the “multi-level regression” of MRP —to predict voting intentions for each of 16m possible unique combinations of voters’ age group, sex, ethnicity, education level, constituency and …

Reform UK makes gains as Tory losses mount in double by-election drubbing
10 months, 1 week ago

Reform UK makes gains as Tory losses mount in double by-election drubbing

The Independent  

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inbox Get our free View from Westminster email Please enter a valid email address Please enter a valid email address SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Please try again later {{ /verifyErrors }} Right-wing challenger party …

Tories losing more voters to Farage’s Reform UK than Labour, poll finds
1 year, 1 month ago

Tories losing more voters to Farage’s Reform UK than Labour, poll finds

The Independent  

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inbox Get our free View from Westminster email Get our free View from Westminster email SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Read our privacy policy Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives are losing more of their 2019 voters to …

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