A reliable pandemic forecasting model says cases will nearly double by Inauguration Day
4 years, 4 months ago

A reliable pandemic forecasting model says cases will nearly double by Inauguration Day

Salon  

A COVID-19 forecasting model that accurately predicted the coronavirus' spread over the summer anticipates that the number of people who will contract the disease will nearly double between now and President-elect Joe Biden's inauguration on Jan. 20. In a paper published on Monday in the scholarly journal Scientific Reports, three researchers from Washington University in St. Louis' Olin Business School describe how their COVID-19 forecasting model projects there will be an explosion of new cases after a major "contagion event or right after a reopening" before settling into a period of stable and slightly declining disease spread. One of the paper's co-authors, marketing professor Raphael Thomadsen, told the college newspaper The Source that "one of the key reasons for the increased accuracy of this model over other COVID-19 forecasts is that this model accounts for the fact that people live in interconnected social networks rather than interacting mostly with random groups of strangers." In June, the Olin scholars' model accurately predicted that, because contagious individuals were more likely to repeatedly expose the same people due to "overlapping social connections," the summer and early fall would see "a brief period of exponential growth in the beginning or after reopening." Operation Warp Speed chief advisor Dr. Moncef Slaoui has admitted that he has had "no contact" with Biden transition officials about addressing the pandemic and Biden chief of staff Ron Klain told ABC that "our transition isn't getting access to agency officials to help develop our plans, and there's a lot of focus on that vaccine roll out plan that's going to be critical in the early days of a Biden presidency – we have no access to that."

History of this topic

Under Trump, we could be flying blind when it comes to bird flu, other infectious diseases
2 months, 1 week ago
Biden health officials say they built up US pandemic defenses. Trump promises changes
2 months, 2 weeks ago
Biden health officials say they built up U.S. pandemic defenses. Trump promises changes
2 months, 2 weeks ago
Trump’s botched COVID response has been largely forgotten, but it's crucial we remember
5 months ago
Anthony Fauci Worries About the Next Pandemic—But Worries More About Democracy
8 months, 1 week ago
Biden tests positive for COVID-19: White House
8 months, 2 weeks ago
President Joe Biden tests positive for COVID-19 while campaigning in Las Vegas, has 'mild symptoms'
8 months, 2 weeks ago
President Joe Biden tests positive for COVID-19 while campaigning in Las Vegas, has ‘mild symptoms’
8 months, 2 weeks ago
The best jabs from Biden-Trump debates in 2020
9 months ago
Biden administration partners with 50 countries to stifle future pandemics
11 months, 2 weeks ago
White House lifting its COVID-19 testing rule for people around Biden, ending a pandemic vestige
1 year ago
Biden ends COVID national emergency after Congress acts
1 year, 11 months ago
President Joe Biden ends US Covid emergency status after 3 years
1 year, 11 months ago
President Biden to end COVID-19 emergencies on May 11
2 years, 2 months ago
Biden administration to end COVID public health emergency in May
2 years, 2 months ago
President Biden to end COVID-19 emergencies on May 11
2 years, 2 months ago
Biden said the pandemic is over, but the pandemic won’t cooperate
2 years, 2 months ago
Joe Biden’s ‘ticking time bomb’: Can the White House win the war against Covid-19?
2 years, 2 months ago
How scientists trained computers to forecast COVID-19 outbreaks weeks ahead
2 years, 2 months ago
Biden administration extends COVID public health emergency
2 years, 5 months ago
Biden sent the wrong message on COVID. He can still fix it
2 years, 6 months ago
Dr Fauci pushes back on Biden’s claim the Covid pandemic is over
2 years, 6 months ago
Joe Biden says the Covid pandemic is ‘over’. Is he right?
2 years, 6 months ago
White House says Covid-19 policy unchanged despite Biden’s comments that the ‘pandemic is over’
2 years, 6 months ago
Biden’s comments about pandemic widen public health split over how US should respond to Covid-19
2 years, 6 months ago
Anthony Fauci announces he’ll step down in December
2 years, 7 months ago
Joe Biden tests negative for Covid after week-long rebound case
2 years, 7 months ago
Biden tests negative for COVID, but stays in isolation until 2nd test can confirm result
2 years, 7 months ago
Joe Biden tests positive for COVID-19 again; says 'feeling fine, everything's good'
2 years, 8 months ago
Biden emerges from COVID isolation and tells public: Get your shots
2 years, 8 months ago
Biden finishes Covid drug treatment Paxlovid and feels well enough to exercise, White House physician says
2 years, 8 months ago
Biden ‘feeling better every day’ as he recovers from COVID
2 years, 8 months ago
Joe Biden likely infected with BA5 COVID-19 variant - responsible for maximum infections in US
2 years, 8 months ago
‘I feel much better than I sound’: Biden continues working despite COVID-19
2 years, 8 months ago
EXPLAINER: What’s known about Biden catching COVID-19?
2 years, 8 months ago
Biden tests positive for COVID-19, has ‘very mild symptoms’
2 years, 8 months ago
Why Biden’s bout with COVID-19 is likely to be easier than Trump’s
2 years, 8 months ago
Moving beyond masks: Biden toils to put pandemic behind him
2 years, 11 months ago
Coronavirus is no longer a top issue for Americans. That’s good news for Republicans
3 years ago
Biden gets his 2nd booster shot and urges Congress to spend more on pandemic: ‘We can’t wait’
3 years ago
News Analysis: COVID-19 surge abroad, high-profile cases serve as reminder to Biden: Pandemic isn’t over
3 years ago
'Prepare for new COVID-19 variants': Joe Biden tells pandemic-weary Americans
3 years, 1 month ago
White House outlines new plan to combat COVID in US
3 years, 1 month ago
Voters Fed Up With Covid Are Turning Against Biden and the Democrats
3 years, 1 month ago
Jan. 20, 2022 coronavirus pandemic and the Omicron variant news
3 years, 2 months ago
COVID leaves lasting scars as Biden marks first year in office
3 years, 2 months ago
Biden hails ‘enormous progress’ during first year in office
3 years, 2 months ago
‘They underestimated this virus.’ Omicron cuts through U.S. defenses despite Biden’s efforts
3 years, 2 months ago
Biden’s COVID response comes under fire in Senate hearing
3 years, 2 months ago
Biden: COVID-19 'Probably Here To Stay' In The World
3 years, 2 months ago

Discover Related