
A reliable pandemic forecasting model says cases will nearly double by Inauguration Day
SalonA COVID-19 forecasting model that accurately predicted the coronavirus' spread over the summer anticipates that the number of people who will contract the disease will nearly double between now and President-elect Joe Biden's inauguration on Jan. 20. In a paper published on Monday in the scholarly journal Scientific Reports, three researchers from Washington University in St. Louis' Olin Business School describe how their COVID-19 forecasting model projects there will be an explosion of new cases after a major "contagion event or right after a reopening" before settling into a period of stable and slightly declining disease spread. One of the paper's co-authors, marketing professor Raphael Thomadsen, told the college newspaper The Source that "one of the key reasons for the increased accuracy of this model over other COVID-19 forecasts is that this model accounts for the fact that people live in interconnected social networks rather than interacting mostly with random groups of strangers." In June, the Olin scholars' model accurately predicted that, because contagious individuals were more likely to repeatedly expose the same people due to "overlapping social connections," the summer and early fall would see "a brief period of exponential growth in the beginning or after reopening." Operation Warp Speed chief advisor Dr. Moncef Slaoui has admitted that he has had "no contact" with Biden transition officials about addressing the pandemic and Biden chief of staff Ron Klain told ABC that "our transition isn't getting access to agency officials to help develop our plans, and there's a lot of focus on that vaccine roll out plan that's going to be critical in the early days of a Biden presidency – we have no access to that."
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