Why the Fed is reading US labour market wrong
2 years, 3 months ago

Why the Fed is reading US labour market wrong

Live Mint  

At this year’s Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming, US, a major event on the calendars of the world’s central bankers, US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered an uncharacteristically strong message about how the Fed plans to combat today’s high inflation. A strong India decoupling from emerging peers How Enam AMC’s Jiten Doshi picks stocks How Russia snapping gas line to EU affects India For women’s incomes, flexible work is no magic bullet The Fed’s error reflects a misreading of the US labour market, which Powell noted “is particularly strong." But if hourly wages were substantially higher, the adults would choose to work fewer hours, so that they could take turns to be at home in order to attend better to their children’s needs. Once this new equilibrium is reached, even though wages are high, the country’s labour market will be tight, with no glut of job seekers, and it will remain there.

India Pandemic Labour Work Interest Rates Wages Fed Wage Powell Equilibrium Market Wrong Hourly Wages  economy  reading  wage  market  wrong  fed  strong  labour  equilibrium  work  wages  pandemic

History of this topic

U.S. job growth outperforms expectations as hiring resurges and unemployment drops
2 months, 3 weeks ago

U.S. job growth outperforms expectations as hiring resurges and unemployment drops

LA Times  

A hiring sign is displayed at a grocery store in Deerfield, Ill. “The report doesn’t single-handedly change the landscape for the economic outlook, but it does provide reassurance that there’s still plenty of life in the jobs market,” said Jim Baird, chief investment officer with Plante Moran Financial Advisors, a major accounting firm based in the Detroit area. The strong …

Job growth blows away expectations, in boost for Harris
2 months, 3 weeks ago

Job growth blows away expectations, in boost for Harris

Politico  

The surprisingly solid jobs number puts Fed Chair Jerome Powell on course to cut interest rates by a modest quarter of a point when the central bank holds its next meeting on Nov. 6-7. Just 22 percent of Americans said the economy is in “excellent” or “good” shape in the latest Gallup poll, compared with 77 percent reporting it to …

US Hiring Rebounds Slightly And Unemployment Rate Dips In Sign Of Still-Slowing Job Market
3 months, 2 weeks ago

US Hiring Rebounds Slightly And Unemployment Rate Dips In Sign Of Still-Slowing Job Market

Huff Post  

A linesman works on power lines under the morning sun, July 12, 2024, in Phoenix. via Associated Press WASHINGTON — Hiring by America’s employers picked up a bit in August from July’s sluggish pace, and the unemployment rate dipped for the first time since March in a sign that the job market may be cooling but remains sturdy. In a …

Employment worries rise for Fed as inflation challenge is ‘becoming history’
3 months, 3 weeks ago

Employment worries rise for Fed as inflation challenge is ‘becoming history’

Politico  

Friday’s inflation data will solidify Powell’s resolve to lower borrowing costs next month, a move that’s poised to bring some relief to businesses and consumers just weeks ahead of the November elections. The Commerce Department said Friday that the annual personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, was just 2.5 percent in July — a sign that …

US employers scaled back hiring in April. How that could let the Fed cut interest rates
7 months, 3 weeks ago

US employers scaled back hiring in April. How that could let the Fed cut interest rates

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The nation’s employers pulled back on their hiring in April but still added a decent 175,000 jobs in a sign that persistently high interest rates may be starting to slow the robust U.S. job market. Even with the April hiring slowdown, last month’s job growth amounted to a solid increase, though it was the lowest monthly gain since …

Relief for Brits as wages outstrip inflation by biggest margin since 2021 despite signs jobs market is weakening… but inactivity crisis deepens
8 months, 1 week ago

Relief for Brits as wages outstrip inflation by biggest margin since 2021 despite signs jobs market is weakening… but inactivity crisis deepens

Daily Mail  

Brits have been offered some much-needed relief as figures showed wages outstripping inflation by the biggest margin in two and a half years. Regular pay rose by 2.1 per cent year-on-year in real terms in the three months to February. The Office for National Statistics said the jobless rate jumped to 4.2 per cent in the three months to February …

The U.S. created an extraordinary number of jobs in January. Here's a deeper look
10 months, 3 weeks ago

The U.S. created an extraordinary number of jobs in January. Here's a deeper look

NPR  

The U.S. created an extraordinary number of jobs in January. The job market has held up remarkably well, despite the Federal Reserve's effort to fight inflation with the highest interest rates in more than two decades. Enlarge this image toggle caption Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images But the sizzling job market could delay a cut in interest rates Powell …

US employers added a solid 199,000 jobs in November in sign of a still-sturdy labor market
1 year ago

US employers added a solid 199,000 jobs in November in sign of a still-sturdy labor market

Politico  

Still, the job market is gradually decelerating along the lines that Fed officials have wanted to see. The Fed has raised its key short-term rate from near zero to about 5.4%, a 22-year peak, leading to higher borrowing rates for consumers and businesses and lower inflation. When the Fed meets next week, it is considered sure to keep its benchmark …

US labor market added 336,000 jobs in September - DOUBLE analysts' predictions - sending markets plunging as investors fear more Fed rate hikes for overheated economy
1 year, 2 months ago

US labor market added 336,000 jobs in September - DOUBLE analysts' predictions - sending markets plunging as investors fear more Fed rate hikes for overheated economy

Daily Mail  

Despite the job gains, wage growth was down and unemployment steady September's labor report showed a sharp uptick in new jobs, heating up the Fed's battle to curb inflation. The US economy added 336,000 jobs last month, nearly twice economists' expectations of 170,000, and the largest jump since January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Following Friday's report, markets …

A surge of hiring in September defies predictions, pointing to US job market’s enduring resilience
1 year, 2 months ago

A surge of hiring in September defies predictions, pointing to US job market’s enduring resilience

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — An unforeseen burst of hiring last month has lifted hopes that the economy will prove durable once again, even as an array of threats lie ahead. Friday’s government report raised hopes for a notoriously difficult “soft landing,” by which the Federal Reserve would manage to curb high inflation with a series of rate hikes without derailing the economy. …

Here’s why the shockingly good jobs report is going to cost you
1 year, 2 months ago

Here’s why the shockingly good jobs report is going to cost you

CNN  

New York CNN — The US economy feels lousy for so many people. So you’d think some really, really, shockingly good news about the job market would give Americans’ spirits a boost. When you see gas prices at $3.75 on average, mortgage rates above 7% and at a 23-year high, food prices going up at the grocery store, and a …

More evidence that the US job market remains hot after US job openings rise unexpectedly in August
1 year, 2 months ago

More evidence that the US job market remains hot after US job openings rise unexpectedly in August

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — U.S. job openings unexpectedly rose in August, another sign the U.S. labor market remains strong despite higher interest rates — perhaps too strong for the inflation fighters at the Federal Reserve. American employers posted 9.6 million job openings in August, up from 8.9 million in July and the first uptick in three months, the Labor Department said Tuesday. …

Why the US job market has defied rising interest rates and expectations of high unemployment
1 year, 2 months ago

Why the US job market has defied rising interest rates and expectations of high unemployment

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Last year’s spike in inflation, to the highest level in four decades, was painful enough for American households. Grim forecasts from economists had predicted that as the Federal Reserve jacked up its benchmark rate ever higher, consumers and businesses would curb spending, companies would slash jobs and unemployment would spike as high as 7% or more — twice …

Hiring slowed in July, but U.S. employers added a still-solid 187,000 jobs
1 year, 4 months ago

Hiring slowed in July, but U.S. employers added a still-solid 187,000 jobs

LA Times  

Jose Viveros delivers beverages in Los Angeles’ Little Tokyo on July 27. U.S. employers added 187,000 jobs last month, fewer than expected, as higher interest rates continued to weigh on the economy. Increasingly, economists are expressing confidence that inflation fighters at the Fed can pull off a rare “soft landing” — raising interest rates just enough to rein in rising …

The US labor market cooled off in June, adding just 209,000 jobs
1 year, 5 months ago

The US labor market cooled off in June, adding just 209,000 jobs

CNN  

Minneapolis CNN — The US job market cooled back down in June, adding just 209,000 jobs, and fueling optimism that the economy is on course to nail that elusive soft landing of lowering inflation without triggering a recession. The June job gains, released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, were nearly 100,000 positions below May’s stronger-than-expected showing of 306,000 …

US job growth slows in June; unemployment rate falls to 3.6%
1 year, 5 months ago

US job growth slows in June; unemployment rate falls to 3.6%

Al Jazeera  

Despite the lower numbers, the labour market remains resilient, even as Fed predicts more rate hikes. Job growth in the United States slowed more than expected in June after surging in the prior month, but labour market conditions remain tight, with the unemployment rate retreating from a seven-month high and fairly strong wage gains continuing. Though job growth is slowing, …

US job openings hit 10.1 million and labor market still strong despite Fed efforts to cool economy
1 year, 6 months ago

US job openings hit 10.1 million and labor market still strong despite Fed efforts to cool economy

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — U.S. job openings rose unexpectedly in April, illustrating the resilience of the American labor market and complicating Federal Reserve efforts to fight inflation. Employers posted 10.1 million job openings last month, up from 9.7 million in March and the most since January, the Labor Department said Wednesday. Layoffs fell, but the number of people quitting their jobs — …

Inflation stayed high last month, compounding the challenges facing the U.S. economy
1 year, 7 months ago

Inflation stayed high last month, compounding the challenges facing the U.S. economy

NPR  

Inflation stayed high last month, compounding the challenges facing the U.S. economy Enlarge this image toggle caption Justin Sullivan/Getty Images Justin Sullivan/Getty Images Inflation remained stubbornly high last month after more than a year of rising interest rates. "My feeling is that there's a gradual slowdown here, but March seemed a little too good to be true," said Omair Sharif, …

April hiring gains reflect a still-resilient US job market
1 year, 7 months ago

April hiring gains reflect a still-resilient US job market

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — America’s employers added a healthy 253,000 jobs in April, evidence of a labor market that still shows surprising resilience despite rising interest rates, chronically high inflation and a banking crisis that could weaken the economy. The job market has remained durable despite the Fed’s aggressive campaign of interest rate hikes over the past year to fight inflation. Looked …

April hiring gains reflect a still-resilient U.S. job market
1 year, 7 months ago

April hiring gains reflect a still-resilient U.S. job market

LA Times  

Construction workers install roofing on a high-rise in Manhattan’s financial district. America’s employers added a healthy 253,000 jobs in April, evidence of a labor market that still shows surprising resilience despite rising interest rates, chronically high inflation and a banking crisis that could weaken the economy. The job market has remained durable despite the Fed’s aggressive campaign of interest rate …

US hiring slows in March as world's largest economy shows signs of cooling as authorities battle inflation
1 year, 8 months ago

US hiring slows in March as world's largest economy shows signs of cooling as authorities battle inflation

Firstpost  

The labour market data is highly followed for its possible influence on the Federal Reserve’s policy choices, but analysts predict the most recent results will not be enough to cause the central bank to suspend its interest rate rises Washington, United States: US employment growth slowed for the second month in a row in March, according to government statistics released …

US adds a healthy 236,000 jobs despite Fed’s rate hikes
1 year, 8 months ago

US adds a healthy 236,000 jobs despite Fed’s rate hikes

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — America’s employers added a solid 236,000 jobs in March, suggesting that the economy remains on solid footing despite the nine interest rate hikes the Federal Reserve has imposed over the past year in its drive to tame inflation. We do see that the job market is cooling, but it’s still resilient.’’ In another sign that might reassure the …

An unexpected job surge confounds the Fed’s economic models
1 year, 10 months ago

An unexpected job surge confounds the Fed’s economic models

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Does the Federal Reserve have it wrong? “Like $20 bills on the sidewalk and free lunches, falling inflation paired with falling unemployment is the stuff of economics fiction.” In economic models used by the Fed and most mainstream economists, a job market with strong hiring and a low unemployment rate typically fuels higher inflation. Chair Jerome Powell has …

A surprising burst of US hiring in January: 517,000 jobs
1 year, 10 months ago

A surprising burst of US hiring in January: 517,000 jobs

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — For nearly a year, the Federal Reserve has been on a mission to cool down the job market to help curb the nation’s worst inflation bout in four decades. Still, the Fed’s inflation watchers might be reassured somewhat by January’s wage data: Average hourly pay rose 4.4% last month from a year earlier, slower than the 4.8% year-over-year …

January may have delivered lower, if still solid, job growth
1 year, 10 months ago

January may have delivered lower, if still solid, job growth

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Read our privacy policy The American economy has an …

US adds a surprisingly strong 517,000 jobs despite Fed hikes
1 year, 10 months ago

US adds a surprisingly strong 517,000 jobs despite Fed hikes

Al Jazeera  

The labour force participation rate is at its highest since March but still below pre-pandemic levels. Employers in the United States added 517,000 jobs in January, a surprisingly strong gain in the face of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive drive to slow growth and tame inflation with higher interest rates. Friday’s government report added to the picture of a resilient labour …

US job openings stayed high in sign of economic resilience
1 year, 11 months ago

US job openings stayed high in sign of economic resilience

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — U.S. job openings slipped in November but remained high, suggesting businesses are still determined to add workers, a blow to the Federal Reserve’s efforts to cool hiring and wage gains. Such a high number of job openings suggests the economy is not yet in recession or close to falling into one. “For Fed officials, these data support the …

A diminished US workforce could lead Fed to keep rates high
2 years ago

A diminished US workforce could lead Fed to keep rates high

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Still eager to hire, America’s employers are posting more job openings than they did before the pandemic struck 2½ years ago. “This labor shortage that we have,” the Fed chair said, “it doesn’t look like it’s going away anytime soon. “It’s hard enough finding workers, but a bench jeweler is a dying breed,” said Moriarty, referring to an …

US hiring stays strong, complicating Fed’s inflation fight
2 years ago

US hiring stays strong, complicating Fed’s inflation fight

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The nation’s employers kept hiring briskly in November despite high inflation and a slow-growing economy — a sign of resilience in the face of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes. All year, as inflation has surged and the Fed has imposed ever-higher borrowing rates, America’s labor market has defied skeptics, adding hundreds of thousands of jobs, month …

U.S. Labor Market Continues To Defy Skeptics
2 years ago

U.S. Labor Market Continues To Defy Skeptics

Huff Post  

LOADING ERROR LOADING WASHINGTON — The nation’s employers kept hiring briskly in November despite high inflation and a slow-growing economy — a sign of resilience in the face of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes. All year, as inflation has surged and the Fed has imposed ever-higher borrowing rates, America’s labor market has defied skeptics, adding hundreds of thousands …

A job-market riddle for the recession
2 years ago

A job-market riddle for the recession

Live Mint  

The global economy is stuttering, and some of the world’s biggest names are already laying off thousands of employees. “I think there’s a much bigger conversation about the labor market and jobs and how we attract people back into work." Central bank Governor Adrian Orr said the shortage of workers means it’s all about “labor labor labor." Without measures such …

Fed voiced determination at last meeting to curb inflation
2 years, 2 months ago

Fed voiced determination at last meeting to curb inflation

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Federal Reserve officials at their last meeting stressed their commitment to taming “unacceptably high’’ inflation before announcing that they were raising their benchmark interest rate by a substantial three-quarters of a point for a third straight time and signaling more large rate hikes ahead. In minutes from their Sept. 20-21 meeting released Wednesday, the Fed policymakers judged that …

Lower US job gain in August could aid Fed’s inflation fight
2 years, 3 months ago

Lower US job gain in August could aid Fed’s inflation fight

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — America’s employers added a healthy number of jobs last month, yet slowed their hiring enough to potentially help the Federal Reserve in its fight to reduce raging inflation. “It’s a very positive report and still holds open the possibility for a soft landing,” said Ellen Gaske, an economist at PGIM Fixed Income, referring to the Fed’s goal of …

Slowdown or not? How the US job market walks a tight rope
2 years, 3 months ago

Slowdown or not? How the US job market walks a tight rope

Firstpost  

The unemployment rate fell to a historically low 3.5 per cent as the 22 million jobs lost due to COVID-19 returned. Job creation, on the other hand, is expected to have slowed sharply, falling to 300,000 — almost half of July’s number Washington: The number of “Help Wanted” signs may have decreased across the United States in August, but the …

US job growth surges, cooling recession fears
2 years, 4 months ago

US job growth surges, cooling recession fears

Al Jazeera  

The United States unemployment rate is at a 50-year low of 3.5 percent, data showed on Friday. US employers added more than double the number of jobs forecast, illustrating rock-solid labor demand that tempers recession fears and suggests the Federal Reserve will press on with steep interest-rate hikes to thwart inflation. Nonfarm payrolls jumped 528,000 in July, a broad advance …

US economy sending mixed signals: Here’s what it all means
54 years, 11 months ago

US economy sending mixed signals: Here’s what it all means

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy is caught in an awkward, painful place. Here’s a look at the economic vital signs that are sending frustratingly mixed signals to policymakers, businesses and forecasters: ___ THE OVERALL ECONOMY As measured by the nation’s gross domestic product — the broadest gauge of output — the economy has looked positively sickly so far this year. …

US economy sending mixed signals: Here’s what it all means
2 years, 4 months ago

US economy sending mixed signals: Here’s what it all means

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy is caught in an awkward, painful place. Here’s a look at the economic vital signs that are sending frustratingly mixed signals to policymakers, businesses and forecasters: ___ THE OVERALL ECONOMY As measured by the nation’s gross domestic product — the broadest gauge of output — the economy has looked positively sickly so far this year. …

EXPLAINER: Why US inflation is so high, and when it may ease
2 years, 5 months ago

EXPLAINER: Why US inflation is so high, and when it may ease

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Inflation’s relentless surge didn’t merely persist in June. Even if you toss out food and energy prices — which are notoriously volatile and have driven much of the price spike — so-called core inflation soared 5.9% over the past year. The inflation of the 1970s and early 1980s peaked at 14.8% in March 1980 before the Fed exorcized …

Why Fed worries about the strongest US job market in decades
2 years, 8 months ago

Why Fed worries about the strongest US job market in decades

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Chair Jerome Powell isn’t as pleased with the robust U.S. job market as you might think he’d be, and he and the Federal Reserve plan to do something about it: Take it down a notch. With the highest inflation in four decades hurting households and businesses, the Fed chair regards the job market’s strength as a key driver …

EXPLAINER: Why US inflation is so high, and when it may ease
2 years, 8 months ago

EXPLAINER: Why US inflation is so high, and when it may ease

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Another month, another four-decade high for inflation. Back in December 2020, the Fed’s policymakers had forecast that consumer inflation would stay below their 2% annual target and end 2021 at around 1.8%. For months, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and some others characterized higher consumer prices as merely “transitory” — the result, mainly, of shipping delays and temporary shortages …

The economy is recovering fast. But we need to ensure it works for everyone
2 years, 9 months ago

The economy is recovering fast. But we need to ensure it works for everyone

CNN  

Editor’s Note: Elise Gould is a senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute. When the coronavirus pandemic shut down businesses across the US in spring 2020, the labor market lost 22 million jobs in just two months — more than twice as many jobs lost during the entire Great Recession and financial crisis of 2008-2009. Given that a full labor …

‘People are unhappy’: Fed official warns on high inflation
2 years, 10 months ago

‘People are unhappy’: Fed official warns on high inflation

CNN  

New York CNN Business — High inflation is making Americans unhappy, and the Federal Reserve must step up its campaign to get prices back under control, a top Fed official said Monday. “This inflation we’re seeing is very bad for low and moderate-income households,” St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard told CNBC. However, I think we can do it …

Fed’s Powell: High inflation poses a threat to job market
2 years, 11 months ago

Fed’s Powell: High inflation poses a threat to job market

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Warning that high inflation could make it harder to restore the job market to full health, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday that the Fed will raise interest rates faster than it now plans if needed to stem surging prices. But Powell argued that rising inflation, if it persists, also poses a threat the Fed’s goal of …

Fed sees three rate increases in ’22 as inflation battle begins
3 years ago

Fed sees three rate increases in ’22 as inflation battle begins

The Hindu  

The Federal Reserve, signalling its inflation target has been met, said on Wednesday it would end its pandemic-era bond purchases in March and pave the way for three quarter-percentage-point interest rate increases by the end of 2022 as it exits from policies enacted at the start of the health crisis. In new economic projections released following its policy meeting, Fed …

Why the Fed feels now is time to tighten credit more quickly
3 years ago

Why the Fed feels now is time to tighten credit more quickly

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — For months, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell responded to surging inflation by counseling patience and stressing that the Fed wanted to see unemployment return to near-pre-pandemic levels before it would raise interest rates. But he said “rapid progress” had been made toward the Fed’s target of “maximum employment.” And if inflation is still running high next year, he …

US economists see higher wages feeding inflation for 3 years
3 years ago

US economists see higher wages feeding inflation for 3 years

Al Jazeera  

A new survey shows nearly three-quarters of US economists don’t see inflation falling to the Fed’s target 2-percent rate until the second half of 2023 or later. Nearly three quarters – 71 percent – of the 48 economists surveyed see the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge – Personal Consumption Expenditures minus food and energy – not falling to or below …

EXPLAINER: Why are fears of high inflation getting worse?
3 years, 7 months ago

EXPLAINER: Why are fears of high inflation getting worse?

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Gas prices are rising. Not since the late 1960s and early ‘70s has the United States endured chronic high inflation, with consumer prices rising at or near double-digit percentages from one year to the next. Under Chair Jerome Powell, the Fed is betting that it can keep rates ultra-low even as the economic recovery kicks into high gear …

The Fed’s new strategy could keep rates low for longer than you think
4 years, 3 months ago

The Fed’s new strategy could keep rates low for longer than you think

CNN  

New York CNN Business — The Federal Reserve announced a major strategy shift Thursday that will likely keep interest rates low for longer to let prices rise and jobs flourish. The new strategy, unexpectedly laid out in detail in a speech by Fed chief Jerome Powell, declares that the central bank will now seek to achieve inflation that average 2% …

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