
China’s Boom Is Over—Beijing Is Making It Worse
Live MintChina’s fundamental challenges—including weak demographics and heavy debts—are indeed tough. The big targets themselves didn’t contain any surprises: Like last year, Beijing is aiming for “around" 5% growth, 3% inflation and 12 million new urban jobs. But it Given how bad things have been, Chinese short-term interbank rates and government bond yields have remained notably high over the past half year: about level with where they sat during the last big downturn in early 2016, when both growth and inflation were still considerably higher. Economists at the French bank Natixis estimate that China’s real, inflation-adjusted interest rates have since late 2021 been well above the “neutral rate" which would encourage full employment and stable inflation—and that it may take a reduction of close to a full percentage point in real rates to rectify that. Much of China’s real fiscal spending is done off budget by local governments and state-run policy banks, but financing that may be difficult without lower rates—especially if Beijing wants to avoid crowding out already-weak private investment.
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