Treasury Yields Edge Higher With Long-Term Debt Out of Favor
3 months ago

Treasury Yields Edge Higher With Long-Term Debt Out of Favor

Live Mint  

-- Treasury yields rose on Monday as traders continue to see a slower pace of interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve next year and the potential worsening of country’s fiscal backdrop under President-elect Donald Trump’s administration. The moves Monday built on a rise in yields last week following US central bank officials latest quarterly projections — dubbed the dot plot — in which they halved estimates for the total amount of rate reductions next year. “In its latest dot plot, the Fed has implicitly outlined a real neutral policy rate of 100 basis points, a rate it has raised successively this year. While the real neutral rate may not be that high, Treasury 10-year yields need to reflect both the skepticism that the Fed policy is on auto pilot and that the real neutral rate may be more elevated than its dot plot estimate.” — Ven Ram, Cross-Assets Strategist, Dubai Treasury securities received solid demand at a $69 billion sale of two-year notes on Monday and ahead of the sale of $70 billion in five-year notes on Tuesday and $44 billion in seven-year notes on Thursday. “Despite the suggestion from the dot plot that the Fed may decelerate the pace of easing over the course of 2025, the 2-year versus 10-year yield curve did not re-flatten,” said Chris Ahrens, a strategist at Stifel Nicolaus & Co. “This may be signaling that there is a transition occurring whereby fiscal concerns and general policy uncertainty will lead investors to demand a higher term premium on long-term Treasuries,” he said.

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History of this topic

US Bonds’ Best Gain This Month Comes as Fed Cut Bets Mount
6 days, 21 hours ago

US Bonds’ Best Gain This Month Comes as Fed Cut Bets Mount

Live Mint  

The US Treasury market is heading for its best weekly gain this month as economic angst reinforces bets on interest-rate cuts. I won’t be surprised if they end up cutting three times this year.” For bond investors who’d been piling into Treasuries over recent weeks, Wednesday’s Fed policy announcement offered vindication. The market is signaling that there’s more concern about …

US Bonds’ Best Gain This Month Comes as Fed Cut Bets Mount
6 days, 21 hours ago

US Bonds’ Best Gain This Month Comes as Fed Cut Bets Mount

Live Mint  

The US Treasury market is heading for its best weekly gain this month as economic angst reinforces bets on interest-rate cuts. I won’t be surprised if they end up cutting three times this year.” For bond investors who’d been piling into Treasuries over recent weeks, Wednesday’s Fed policy announcement offered vindication. The market is signaling that there’s more concern about …

US 10-year yields rise as Powell signals patience on rate cuts
2 weeks, 6 days ago

US 10-year yields rise as Powell signals patience on rate cuts

Live Mint  

* Labor market data shows nonfarm payrolls below expectations * 10-year Treasury yield poised to snap five-week streak of declines * Powell signals no rush to cut rates amid tariff concerns By Chuck Mikolajczak NEW YORK, March 7 - U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose on Friday, reversing earlier declines after comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated the central …

US yields rise as bond market steadies ahead of payrolls
1 month, 3 weeks ago

US yields rise as bond market steadies ahead of payrolls

Live Mint  

* US jobless claims rise in latest week * US productivity slows in Q4 * US rate futures price in 46 bps of easing in 2025 * US 2/10 yield curve hits flattest since December 23 By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss NEW YORK, - U.S. Treasury yields edged higher on Thursday, recovering from sharp declines in the previous session, as the bond …

Why are interest rates rising when the Fed has been cutting them?
2 months, 1 week ago

Why are interest rates rising when the Fed has been cutting them?

Associated Press  

NEW YORK — What’s shaking Wall Street seems so backwards. The bond market’s moves might seem strange given that the Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates three times starting in September. But the Fed’s influence is limited when it comes to the interest rates that are currently knocking the stock market around, chiefly the 10-year Treasury yield. And the 10-year …

India bond yields to track rupee’s moves for direction
Trending News
2 months, 2 weeks ago

India bond yields to track rupee’s moves for direction

Live Mint  

By Dharamraj Dhutia MUMBAI, Jan 14 - Indian government bond yields are expected to be largely unchanged in early deals on Tuesday as it awaits the direction of the local currency, while U.S. yields remain elevated on dwindling bets of a rate cut in the world's largest economy. The Indian rupee ended at a fresh record low of 86.5750 and …

A bond selloff is rocking the world. You might want to take the other side.
Trending News
2 months, 2 weeks ago

A bond selloff is rocking the world. You might want to take the other side.

Live Mint  

Wall Street is really worried about bonds. On Friday, a jobs report that blew past expectations pushed yields on 10-year Treasurys to 4.772%, the highest close since Nov. 1, 2023, and those on 30-year paper to 4.962%. Rather, it might be the result of investors applying a higher discount or “term premium" to hold long-term bonds, estimates by the Federal …

Jobs report fuels Treasury yield surge as markets brace for 5% threshold
2 months, 2 weeks ago

Jobs report fuels Treasury yield surge as markets brace for 5% threshold

Live Mint  

* Strong economic data raises prospect of yields surging further * Some fear inflation rebound, see risk of Fed hike * Higher yields could further wobble stocks * Some see 5% yield as threshold for allocation shifts By Davide Barbuscia NEW YORK, - A recent surge in U.S. Treasury yields may gain even more momentum after a strong jobs report …

Last Time Bond Yields Surged Like This, Stock Markets Sank
Trending News
2 months, 2 weeks ago

Last Time Bond Yields Surged Like This, Stock Markets Sank

Live Mint  

There’s room for stock markets to fall further as bond yields approach levels that have been painful for equities in recent years. The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to levels just shy of 4.7%, the highest since April after an almost uninterrupted surge of more than one percentage point since mid-September. “Equity/bond yield correlations have turned negative again,” Goldman Sachs …

US yields rise on strong data amid supply
Trending News
2 months, 2 weeks ago

US yields rise on strong data amid supply

Live Mint  

* US job openings grow, exceeding forecasts * Market anticipates Fed rate cuts will be less than previously expected * Fiscal trajectory has pushed up long-term yields By Karen Brettell NEW YORK, Jan 7 - Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields hit an eight-month high on Tuesday after better than expected data pointed to a strong economy and as the Treasury auctioned …

Longer-dated yields rise amid supply
2 months, 3 weeks ago

Longer-dated yields rise amid supply

Live Mint  

By Karen Brettell NEW YORK, Jan 6 - The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield hit the highest since May on Monday while the 30-year yield posted a 14-month high before the Treasury's auction of longer-dated debt over the next two days. Trump's aides are exploring tariff plans that would be applied to every country but only cover certain sectors deemed critical …

Treasuries Post Annual Gain as Fed Starts Interest-Rate Cuts
2 months, 3 weeks ago

Treasuries Post Annual Gain as Fed Starts Interest-Rate Cuts

Live Mint  

The US Treasury market ended 2024 with a small gain as inflation resumed edging lower after the first quarter and the Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times. The gain was smaller than the market’s 2023 advance, which followed two straight annual losses for an asset class whose interest payments normally offset price declines caused by rising yields. But the …

Dollar edges up on bets of US growth, inflation
3 months ago

Dollar edges up on bets of US growth, inflation

Live Mint  

By Karen Brettell NEW YORK - The U.S. dollar edged higher on Thursday on expectations the currency would be boosted next year by policies by the incoming Donald Trump administration that are expected to boost growth and lift inflation. Looser business regulations and tax cuts are expected to help propel U.S. growth next year while analysts say that a clamp-down …

Bond Market Has Worst Week in Months With Less Fed Action Seen
3 months, 2 weeks ago

Bond Market Has Worst Week in Months With Less Fed Action Seen

Live Mint  

An orderly selloff in the US government bond market continued for a fifth straight day, with the 30-year bond’s yield posting its biggest weekly increase of the year. Inflation, if anything, is bending up.” The extra yield offered by long- versus short-maturity yields “is not enough at this point of time.” Next week’s Fed meeting includes an updated summary of …

US 10-year yields fall to six-week low after payrolls, markets see green light to December cut
3 months, 3 weeks ago

US 10-year yields fall to six-week low after payrolls, markets see green light to December cut

Live Mint  

* Odds of 25-basis point rate cut this month rise to 87% according to FedWatch tool * Two year yields fall to five-week low after payrolls report By Tatiana Bautzer NEW YORK, Dec 6 - U.S. Treasuries yield fell to a six-week low after the release of November payrolls data, as investors considered the numbers as a green light to …

India bond yields to track US rates; downside largely capped
4 months ago

India bond yields to track US rates; downside largely capped

Live Mint  

By Nimesh Vora MUMBAI, Nov 26 - Indian bond yields are likely to open little changed on Tuesday following the dip in the previous session, with traders keeping an eye on U.S. Treasury yields. The benchmark 10-year bond yield is expected in a 6.81%-6.84% range, having dipped about two basis points on Monday to 6.8226% largely due to a dip …

US yields rise, weak demand for 20-year auction
4 months, 1 week ago

US yields rise, weak demand for 20-year auction

Live Mint  

By Karen Brettell and Tatiana Bautzer NEW YORK, Nov 20 - U.S. Treasury yields moved higher on Wednesday as the Treasury Department saw weak demand in an auction and traders assessed when the Federal Reserve may pause its interest rate cutting cycle as U.S. economic growth remains above expectations. Investors correctly betting that Republican Donald Trump would win the U.S. …

Traders Ramp Up Bets on a Treasury Selloff After Trump’s Win
4 months, 2 weeks ago

Traders Ramp Up Bets on a Treasury Selloff After Trump’s Win

Live Mint  

Traders are loading up on bets for further losses in the Treasury market in anticipation that Donald Trump’s pledged policies will rekindle inflation and keep US interest rates high. In two-year note futures, open interest has climbed by approximately 132,000 contracts over the past four sessions — equivalent to roughly $8.4 million per basis point in risk added into the …

Sharply rising bond rates could stem Wall Street's 'relief rally' and push interest rate cuts further into the future
4 months, 3 weeks ago

Sharply rising bond rates could stem Wall Street's 'relief rally' and push interest rate cuts further into the future

ABC  

The apparent roar of approval was almost deafening. It's a world that, down the track, promises a return of inflation and permanently higher interest rates as America shifts to a more protectionist global stance that punishes China and, by extension, hurts Australia. Since mid-September, US money markets almost inexplicably have begun forecasting a rise in interest rates. The bond is …

US yields post sharp gains as Trump victory triggers caution about deficits
4 months, 3 weeks ago

US yields post sharp gains as Trump victory triggers caution about deficits

Live Mint  

* Longer-dated US bond yields surge * Trump win seen widening deficits * Tariff plans could also increase inflation * US yield curve hits steepest since late September * Focus shifts to Fed meeting By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss NEW YORK, - U.S. Treasuries fell sharply on Wednesday, propelling yields to multi-month highs as Donald Trump's presidential election victory ignited bets on …

US yields mixed as election risks rise after solid 10-year note auction
4 months, 3 weeks ago

US yields mixed as election risks rise after solid 10-year note auction

Live Mint  

* Online betting odds favor Trump victory * US services index rises, helps extend earlier gains in yields * US yield curve flattens * US Treasury 10-year auction shows solid results By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss NEW YORK, Nov 5 - U.S. Treasury yields were mixed on Tuesday, with longer maturities reversing earlier gains, as volatility intensified toward the market close and …

Stocks rise, Treasuries steady as markets brace for US vote
4 months, 3 weeks ago

Stocks rise, Treasuries steady as markets brace for US vote

Live Mint  

By Koh Gui Qing and Lawrence White NEW YORK -World stocks rose and Treasury yields rebounded on Tuesday while an index of market volatility retreated, as markets awaited early indications of the outcome of the knife-edge U.S. presidential election, with only currency markets showing some jitters. Yields spiked higher earlier even as investors widely expect the Federal Reserve to cut …

US yields dip as ’Trump trades’ unwind in tight presidential race
4 months, 3 weeks ago

US yields dip as ’Trump trades’ unwind in tight presidential race

Live Mint  

* Iowa poll shows Harris ahead of Trump, weighs on yields * US 10-year yields on track for largest fall since early Sept. 4 * US two-year yields show biggest decline in three weeks * US 2/10 yield curve bull flattens * US Treasury three-year notes auction show weak results By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss NEW YORK, - U.S. Treasury yields slid …

Bond Yields Soar After Fed's Interest Rate Cut, Raising Concerns
4 months, 3 weeks ago

Bond Yields Soar After Fed's Interest Rate Cut, Raising Concerns

Live Mint  

US bond yields have surged after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, with the 10-year bond rising by more than 60 basis points since the last policy meeting. This surge has been attributed to several factors, including data surprises suggesting a stronger economy, political 'betting market' movements, and a backtracking of policy signals from the Fed. While the relative importance …

Yields Soar Before Jobs Report, But Fed's Hands Remain Tight
4 months, 3 weeks ago

Yields Soar Before Jobs Report, But Fed's Hands Remain Tight

Live Mint  

U.S. Treasury yields rose on Thursday, with two-year yields reaching a three-month high before Friday's jobs report. The data could create a large market reaction and potentially make some Federal Reserve interest rate cuts less likely if it comes in much stronger than expected. However, the number is also expected to be negatively impacted by strikes in the aerospace manufacturing …

Dollar Soars to 2-1/2-Month Peak as US Rates, Election Eyed
Trending News
5 months ago

Dollar Soars to 2-1/2-Month Peak as US Rates, Election Eyed

Live Mint  

The US dollar has been on a strong upward trajectory in recent weeks, driven by positive economic data and expectations of a Fed pause in interest rate cuts. The greenback has reached a 2-1/2-month high, with the market pricing in an 89.6% chance for a 25 basis point cut at the Fed's upcoming meeting. However, the dollar's rise is also …

Longer-dated yields climb as investors consider recession outlook
7 months ago

Longer-dated yields climb as investors consider recession outlook

Live Mint  

* U.S. two-year note auction better than expected * U.S. 2/10 year yield curve inversion narrowest in 3 weeks * Investors await PCE data due Friday By Caroline Valetkevitch NEW YORK, Aug 27 - U.S. Treasury longer-dated yields edged higher on Tuesday, as investors assessed the likelihood that the U.S. economy will be able to avoid a recession, while a …

India bond yields seen marginally lower as Fed rate cut bets improve
7 months, 1 week ago

India bond yields seen marginally lower as Fed rate cut bets improve

Hindustan Times  

By Dharamraj Dhutia India bond yields seen marginally lower as Fed rate cut bets improve MUMBAI, - Indian government bond yields are expected to trend lower in early trading on Wednesday, tracking a fall in U.S. Treasury yields amid rising prospects of a deeper interest rate cut next month. "The odds of a larger than 25 basis point cut by …

Treasuries Surge as Traders Bet Big on a Fed Rescue Mode
7 months, 3 weeks ago

Treasuries Surge as Traders Bet Big on a Fed Rescue Mode

Live Mint  

Bond traders are piling into bets that the US economy is on the verge of deteriorating so quickly that the Federal Reserve will need to start easing monetary policy aggressively to head off a recession. “Treasuries are a good buy here because I do think the economy will continue to slow.” Bond traders have repeatedly misjudged where interest rates have …

High US interest rates forever: Do not count on this scenario
9 months, 3 weeks ago

High US interest rates forever: Do not count on this scenario

Live Mint  

In spite of the highest Federal Reserve policy rates in two decades, the US economy grew about 2.5% last year, unemployment remains low and stocks are near all-time highs, leading many observers to conclude that the economy has become less interest-rate sensitive—and probably needs permanently high benchmark rates to prevent overheating. Once inflation had been beaten, economists assumed that policy …

The New Normal for Mortgage Rates Will Be Higher Than Many Hope
1 year ago

The New Normal for Mortgage Rates Will Be Higher Than Many Hope

Live Mint  

Interest rates are likely to come down later this year, with the Federal Reserve on track to start cutting rates. “There is further room for tightening spreads," says David Finkelstein, chief executive and chief investment officer of Annaly Capital Management, a real-estate investment trust that invests in mortgage bonds and other strategies across residential mortgage finance. Even if the Fed …

Decoding the (Almost) 5% 10-Year Treasury Yield
1 year, 4 months ago

Decoding the (Almost) 5% 10-Year Treasury Yield

Live Mint  

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note touched 5% for the first time in 16 years last week, spurring debate about whether it has peaked or just taken another step in its long and disruptive climb. Here is a look at how yields got here and their possible paths forward: The Fed sets the tone Yields on Treasurys …

The 10-year US Treasury note rout was not a wild aberration
1 year, 5 months ago

The 10-year US Treasury note rout was not a wild aberration

Live Mint  

The recent rout in 10-year US Treasury notes has pushed yields to their highest since 2007, with a recent bump taking them above 4.89%. Looking at past periods of monetary policy tightening, my main observation is that the 10-year yield tends to max out at—or slightly above—the Federal Reserve’s peak policy rate. One way or another, history shows that the …

2 Federal Reserve officials say spike in bond yields may allow central bank to leave rates alone
1 year, 5 months ago

2 Federal Reserve officials say spike in bond yields may allow central bank to leave rates alone

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Two Federal Reserve officials suggested Monday that the central bank may leave interest rates unchanged at its next meeting in three weeks because a surge in long-term interest rates has made borrowing more expensive and could help cool inflation without further action by the Fed. Philip Jefferson, vice chair of the Fed’s board and a close ally of …

Stock market today: Wall Street edges higher following data that shows the labor market is cooling
1 year, 6 months ago

Stock market today: Wall Street edges higher following data that shows the labor market is cooling

Associated Press  

A choppy day of trading on Wall Street ended Friday with slight gains for stocks, as the market notched its second straight winning week. Wall Street welcomed the latest monthly labor market snapshot, as it roots for the economy to show signs of lower inflation and cooling job growth so that the Fed will be able to ease up on …

Signals point to gentler Federal Reserve in 2023
2 years, 2 months ago

Signals point to gentler Federal Reserve in 2023

Associated Press  

NEW YORK — Easing inflation and a cooling job market are raising hopes on Wall Street that a gentler Federal Reserve is on the way in 2023. It will announce its next decision on interest rates Feb. 1, and investors are largely forecasting a rise of just 0.25 percentage points, down from December’s half-point hike and four 0.75 percentage-point hikes …

Bright start for bonds to new year eases market pressures
2 years, 2 months ago

Bright start for bonds to new year eases market pressures

Live Mint  

Another strong week for the U.S. bond market is giving investors increasing hope that they can turn the page on a brutal 2022. Last week’s consumer-price index report was then also encouraging, hinting at a continued slowdown in the type of services inflation that Fed officials have spotlighted as particularly important. Last year, the S&P 500 fell over 19%, while …

US Fed hikes rates by half percentage point, says more to come
2 years, 3 months ago

US Fed hikes rates by half percentage point, says more to come

Al Jazeera  

The US central bank projected interest rates rising to 5.1 percent in 2023, higher than what investors expected. The United States central bank’s projection of the target federal funds rate rising to 5.1 percent in 2023 is slightly higher than investors expected heading into this week’s two-day policy meeting and appeared biased if anything to move higher. Only two of …

U.S. Federal Reserve attacks inflation with its largest rate hike since 1994
2 years, 9 months ago

U.S. Federal Reserve attacks inflation with its largest rate hike since 1994

The Hindu  

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday intensified its drive to tame high inflation by raising its key interest rate by three-quarters of a point — its largest hike in nearly three decades — and signaling more large rate increases to come that would raise the risk of another recession. With the additional rate hikes they foresee, the policymakers expect their key …

Treasury bond yield inversion raises worries over recession
2 years, 9 months ago

Treasury bond yield inversion raises worries over recession

Associated Press  

NEW YORK — One of the more reliable warning signals for an economic recession started blinking again. When yields for short-term Treasurys are higher than yields for long-term ones, market watchers call it an “inverted yield curve.” And when that chart has a downward sloping line, Wall Street starts getting nervous. Every recession in the past 60 years has been …

Treasury bond yield inversion raises worries over recession
2 years, 9 months ago

Treasury bond yield inversion raises worries over recession

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. When yields for short-term Treasurys are higher than yields …

Economists seek recession clues in the yield curve
2 years, 11 months ago

Economists seek recession clues in the yield curve

Live Mint  

As yields on two-year Treasury notes this week moved above yields on 10-year notes, Wall Street analysts sent up warning flares. When short-term interest rates are higher than long-term interest rates, a phenomenon Wall Street mavens call an inverted yield curve, it is sometimes a signal of recession. Wall Street inboxes were thus stuffed this week with notes like Mr. …

EXPLAINED: Why Bond Yields In US May Be Warning Of A Recession
2 years, 11 months ago

EXPLAINED: Why Bond Yields In US May Be Warning Of A Recession

News 18  

One of the more reliable warning signals for an economic recession is starting to shine. The “yield curve” is watched for clues to how the bond market is feeling about the US economy’s long-term prospects. When yields for short-term Treasurys are higher than yields for long-term ones, market watchers call it an “inverted yield curve.” And when that chart has …

EXPLAINER: Why bond yields may be warning of a recession
2 years, 11 months ago

EXPLAINER: Why bond yields may be warning of a recession

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. The “yield curve” is watched for clues to how …

EXPLAINER: Why bond yields may be warning of a recession
2 years, 11 months ago

EXPLAINER: Why bond yields may be warning of a recession

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. The “yield curve” is watched for clues to how …

Bets against US Treasury bills left bond bears in a cold sweat
3 years, 11 months ago

Bets against US Treasury bills left bond bears in a cold sweat

Live Mint  

Investors betting against Treasury bonds of the United States—or even just hiding out in cash waiting for lower prices—just suffered a rough week, even after a robust slate of economic figures showed that America’s rebound from the pandemic is gaining steam. Treasury yields could extend their decline, potentially taking the 10-year yield as low as 1.2%—a level not seen since …

Interest rates are rising and tech stocks are likely to head in the other direction
4 years, 1 month ago

Interest rates are rising and tech stocks are likely to head in the other direction

ABC  

We live in strange and ridiculous times. Along with growing disquiet and distrust around the central bank actions that have pushed interest rates so low, these negative rates are a major reason why professional investors have been right in there with amateurs throwing money at bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, as well as tech companies that either make no profits or …

Long-term bonds hit hard after Georgia Senate runoffs
4 years, 2 months ago

Long-term bonds hit hard after Georgia Senate runoffs

Live Mint  

Democratic victories in the Georgia Senate races this week have spurred investors to bet on a higher spending government that will bring growth and inflation to the U.S. economy. “Inflation expectations have been going up significantly just this week,” said William Dinning, chief investment officer of Waverton Investment Management, the U.K.-based fund manager formerly known as J.O. “There is upward …

Bond traders ditch bets on heavy stimulus in tight US Election
4 years, 4 months ago

Bond traders ditch bets on heavy stimulus in tight US Election

Live Mint  

Bond traders are abandoning bets for aggressive fiscal stimulus, with Treasury yields well off their peaks as counting for key states progresses in a tight U.S. election, ahead of a Federal Reserve policy decision. Even the U.S.’s announcement on Wednesday of record quarterly debt sales couldn’t damp the biggest one-day rally in months, with a slight tilt toward shorter-dated issuance …

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