Why Union Budget 2020 is an opportunity for govt to demonstrate its intent to rebuild economic policy credibility
FirstpostUnion Budget documents show that from FY17 to FY20, capital expenditure allocation went up by 18 percent over four years; revenue expenditure went up by 45 percent in that same period: nearly 2.5 times more The public discourse and expert discussion on India’s current economic slowdown is reminiscent of a central theme in the 1970 Kannada film Samskara. Stop talking about India’s ‘strong economic fundamentals’ and the ‘potential growth rate’ of the economy: Macroeconomic fundamentals—strong fiscal consolidation, a low current account deficit, low inflation, urban consumption—are all weak actually. Household debt has grown very rapidly; data from the RBI’s Handbook of Statistics on the Indian Economy, and a September 2019 State Bank of India research note found that total household debt was Rs 7.64 lakh crore, an increase of 58 percent from FY14 to FY18. In that same period, the Union Budget used ‘extra-budgetary resources’; essentially, the government borrowed on the strength of the balance sheets of public sector enterprises while keeping that debt out of the fiscal deficit calculations.