Oscar nominations 2025: Predictions in the key categories

Oscar nominations will arrive Thursday morning, six days after they were originally scheduled to be announced, though with all that has happened to our city, doesn’t each day feel like it spans a month? DIRECTOR Jacques Audiard, “Emilia Pérez” Sean Baker, “Anora” Edward Berger, “Conclave” Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist” Coralie Fargeat, “The Substance” Possible surprise: James Mangold Possible snub: Fargeat The Directors Guild nominated Audiard, Baker, Berger, Corbet and Mangold for “A Complete Unknown.” But the academy’s directors branch hasn’t rubber-stamped the DGA’s slate since 2010, so someone’s probably out. ACTRESS Marianne Jean-Baptiste, “Hard Truths” Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked” Karla Sofía Gascón, “Emilia Pérez” Mikey Madison, “Anora” Demi Moore, “The Substance” Possible surprise: Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here” Possible snub: Jean-Baptiste When I wrote about this race a month ago, the headline read: “There’s not enough room for all the deserving lead actress nominees.” And, apparently, there wasn’t enough room in my brain because I omitted Pamela Anderson, who secured a Screen Actors Guild Awards nomination for her lovely work as the veteran dancer in “The Last Showgirl.” I can’t completely dismiss Angelina Jolie or Nicole Kidman, though, if recognized, they could be the sole nominees from their films. If Sebastian Stan earns a nomination, it will likely be for playing Donald Trump in “The Apprentice” rather than for his work in “A Different Man.” ACTOR Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist” Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown” Daniel Craig, “Queer” Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing” Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave” Possible surprise: Sebastian Stan, “The Apprentice” Possible snub: Craig Talking with voters, I’m not hearing much enthusiasm for Daniel Craig or “Queer,” though his daring, image-altering turn in the movie is the kind of performance that the academy usually can’t resist. ADAPTED SCREENPLAY “A Complete Unknown,” Jay Cocks and James Mangold “Conclave,” Peter Straughan “Emilia Pérez,” Jacques Audiard “Nickel Boys,” RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes “Sing Sing,” Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar Possible surprise: “Wicked,” Winnie Holzman and Dana Fox Possible snub: “Sing Sing” If you were the woman sitting in front of me at the Screen Actors Guild screening of “Wicked,” singing along and applauding after every song and telling me afterward that it was the only movie that deserved best picture, I have a message for you: Pay attention to this category.