How to predict record-shattering weather events

The heatwave that struck parts of North America’s Pacific coast in 2021 propelled temperatures in Lytton, a village in British Columbia, to 49.6°C—4.6° higher than the previous record. That makes it much more complex.” To try to understand what had happened, Dr Thompson’s team simulated British winters between 1981 and 2015 many thousands of times, and looked at the spread of possible outcomes, including rare events. Model behaviour Dr de Perez also found that hot weather sufficient to damage wheat’s growth by inhibiting its enzymes is likely to occur in the same years as periods of low rainfall. “Several regions might have ‘gotten lucky’ in terms of their recent experience of extreme events,” they write. Meanwhile, in Britain’s Met Office, researchers are now looking at another sort of extreme event—the risk of “wind droughts” which would wipe out a lot of the country’s wind-turbine-base electricity supply.