A China-Russia Arctic Alliance? Not So Fast.
The DiplomatWith the Arctic finding itself under ever greater global scrutiny due to climate change, and opening up to increased economic activities, from shipping to mining to fishing, the question of whether great power competition is spilling over into the far north has assumed greater importance. One recent example is a report, published last month by American intelligence firm Strider Technologies, which argued that China is rapidly increasing its economic presence in the Russian Arctic and that Moscow has opened the door to Chinese interests in Siberia and Russia’s Far East. Far from pursuing an “unlimited” partnership, Beijing has instead selectively engaged Russia in the Arctic, in areas that reflect China’s own interests, such as increased science diplomacy, and has agreed to purchase Russian oil and gas. China’s stance on oil and gas development in the Russian Arctic has also been sporadic, with Beijing remaining tepid on Russian interests in co-developing the Power of Siberia 2 natural gas pipeline. What remains to be seen is whether the potential impact of the growing number of Chinese companies in the Arctic will represent any significant economic power shift, given ongoing Russian sensitivity to the economic sovereignty of its Arctic lands, and the uneven track record of previous joint Polar Silk Road projects in Siberia.