Inflation is dipping, but RBI may not slash rates
Hindustan TimesThe latest retail inflation print showed the consumer price index slowing to 4.7% year-on-year in April, well within the Reserve Bank of India ’s target band of 2%-6%. While the near-term trajectory of inflation is downward, the medium-term path is unclear as the risk of a disruptive El Niño could put pressure on food prices towards the end of 2023. We estimate that if retail petrol prices were reduced by 10%, this could shave almost 20 basis points from headline inflation directly in FY2023-24, and by a further 10-20bps from second-order effects. While the above factors provide reasons for optimism on near-term inflation, uncertainty about a likely El Niño poses some upside risks to food prices towards the end of 2023. The ultimate impact of El Niño on food inflation will be determined by a combination of factors: The intensity of El Niño; the geographic distribution of monsoon rainfall; the size of government food buffer stocks; supply/demand dynamics; and, to an extent, the level of water reservoirs.