The fine print of October inflation data, in three charts
Live MintIndia’s retail inflation is on a downward trajectory, with the print falling to a four-month low of 4.87% in October from the most recent high of 7.44% in July. While prices tend to decline in November and December following the arrival of kharif crops in the market, the adverse base “will somewhat restrict the downside to inflation for two months", according to Crisil. Food fury What is keeping inflation still elevated is the higher prices of food items even as core inflation, which excludes food and fuel, has been consistently easing. “The onion price-driven surge in headline inflation is unlikely to last, as similar episodes have typically lasted for 2-3 months, before reversing," said Nomura in a report on Monday. “The bigger challenge is the intermittent food price shocks that keep pushing headline inflation higher—as is likely in November—and the risk that this may influence inflation expectations," it added.