How 2025 could bring Putin closer to victory over Europe
The IndependentOrdinarily, it’s historians writing after the fact that identify the pivotal dates in wars when the road to victory or defeat becomes clear. Since well before the US election, there has been no doubt that the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House could be decisive for Ukraine’s continuing ability to resist Russia’s onslaught. open image in gallery Donald Trump has frequently repeated a vow to bring the war to a speedy end once in office These so-called “security guarantees” are essential if any ceasefire is to mean a durable peace, rather than an opportunity for Russia to reconstitute its land forces even faster, without Ukraine eliminating them almost as swiftly as they can be recruited. open image in gallery Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky with Nato secretary general Mark Rutte in October At the other end of the scale, those who have observed Trump’s behaviour during his first term and his consistent favouring of Russian national interests over those of the US think it is more likely that Trump will come to Putin’s rescue, and resolve the war in Russia’s favour before Russia runs out of men and equipment to continue fighting it. But Russia’s efforts to cause mayhem and misery abroad tend to calm down when the situation is relatively stable and increase when the war is not going Moscow’s way.