Yield curve: What it is and why it matters

5 years, 4 months ago

Yield curve: What it is and why it matters

CNN

New York CNN Business — The bond market is trying to tell us something: The yield curve keeps inverting, flashing a warning sign that a recession could be coming. A yield curve inversion happens when long-term bond yields fall below short-term bond yields. Yield curve inversions are one of those moments in markets that get everyone’s attention. Although an inverted yield curve doesn’t necessarily cause a downturn itself, turmoil in the bond market can wind up becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy, as it hurts both investor and business confidence.

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History of this topic

Are we saying goodbye to the flawless record of this recession predictor?

2 months, 3 weeks ago

Are we saying goodbye to the flawless record of this recession predictor?

NPR

Are we saying goodbye to the flawless record of this recession predictor? Two years ago, the yield curve inverted, meaning short-term interest rates on treasury bonds were unusually higher than long term rates. Our colleagues at The Indicator From Planet Money, Darian Woods and Adrian Ma, explain what is going on with the inverted yield curve. DARIAN WOODS, BYLINE: The …

Wall Street’s favorite recession indicator is in a slump of its own

7 months, 2 weeks ago

Wall Street’s favorite recession indicator is in a slump of its own

Live Mint

An anomaly known as an inverted yield curve, in which yields on short-term Treasurys exceed those of longer-term government debt, has long been taken as a nearly surefire signal that an economic pullback looms. If a recession doesn’t materialize soon, it could do lasting damage to the yield curve’s status as a warning system, providing one of the most significant …

India's Bond Yield Curve Inverts For First Time in 8 Years: What Does It Mean?

1 year, 10 months ago

India's Bond Yield Curve Inverts For First Time in 8 Years: What Does It Mean?

News 18

For the first time since May 2015, India’s bond yield curve witnessed inversion, with 364-day treasury bill cutoff yield briefly rising above that of the benchmark 10-year bond. The RBI sold 364-day notes at a 7.48 per cent yield on Wednesday, while the 10-year benchmark 7.26 per cent 2032 bond yield saw a high of 7.4728 per cent, and ended …

Treasury bond yield inversion raises worries over recession

2 years, 7 months ago

Treasury bond yield inversion raises worries over recession

Associated Press

NEW YORK — One of the more reliable warning signals for an economic recession started blinking again. When yields for short-term Treasurys are higher than yields for long-term ones, market watchers call it an “inverted yield curve.” And when that chart has a downward sloping line, Wall Street starts getting nervous. Every recession in the past 60 years has been …

Treasury bond yield inversion raises worries over recession

2 years, 7 months ago

Treasury bond yield inversion raises worries over recession

The Independent

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. When yields for short-term Treasurys are higher than yields …

'Decent chance' of economic downturn in Australia, as experts predict US recession by 2024

2 years, 8 months ago

'Decent chance' of economic downturn in Australia, as experts predict US recession by 2024

ABC

When America sneezes, the world catches a cold – as the old saying goes. Money markets are betting the Fed will announce outsized rate hikes at its next few meetings – and that its benchmark interest rate will soar to 3.2 per cent in a year's time. The source of this panic was a recession signal from the US government …

Economists seek recession clues in the yield curve

2 years, 9 months ago

Economists seek recession clues in the yield curve

Live Mint

As yields on two-year Treasury notes this week moved above yields on 10-year notes, Wall Street analysts sent up warning flares. When short-term interest rates are higher than long-term interest rates, a phenomenon Wall Street mavens call an inverted yield curve, it is sometimes a signal of recession. Wall Street inboxes were thus stuffed this week with notes like Mr. …

EXPLAINED: Why Bond Yields In US May Be Warning Of A Recession

2 years, 9 months ago

EXPLAINED: Why Bond Yields In US May Be Warning Of A Recession

News 18

One of the more reliable warning signals for an economic recession is starting to shine. The “yield curve” is watched for clues to how the bond market is feeling about the US economy’s long-term prospects. When yields for short-term Treasurys are higher than yields for long-term ones, market watchers call it an “inverted yield curve.” And when that chart has …

EXPLAINER: Why bond yields may be warning of a recession

2 years, 9 months ago

EXPLAINER: Why bond yields may be warning of a recession

The Independent

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. The “yield curve” is watched for clues to how …

EXPLAINER: Why bond yields may be warning of a recession

2 years, 9 months ago

EXPLAINER: Why bond yields may be warning of a recession

The Independent

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. The “yield curve” is watched for clues to how …

Inverted yield curve: Does the bond market really signal we’re heading for a recession?

5 years, 5 months ago

Inverted yield curve: Does the bond market really signal we’re heading for a recession?

The Independent

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Please enter a valid email address Please enter a valid email address SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. An "inverted yield curve" may …

Recession may be coming a lot sooner than anyone thought (Opinion)

5 years, 5 months ago

Recession may be coming a lot sooner than anyone thought (Opinion)

CNN

Editor’s Note: Sven Henrich is founder and lead market strategist at NorthmanTrader. But just one day later, global stock markets sold off hard due to ever-weakening economic data in Europe and Asia and further yield curve inversions. For the 10 yield curve inversions since 1956, the S&P 500 peaked within approximately three months of the inversion six times. A sudden …

The bond market smells recession as global stress rises

5 years, 5 months ago

The bond market smells recession as global stress rises

Associated Press

NEW YORK — Compared to the free-swinging and sometimes emotional stock market, the bond market is supposed to be the sober and measured one. The last inversion of this part of the yield curve began in December 2005, two years before the Great Recession tore through the global economy. Some market watchers also say the yield curve may be less …

The bond market flashed recession. So why is the stock market booming?

5 years, 9 months ago

The bond market flashed recession. So why is the stock market booming?

CNN

New York CNN Business — A reliable recession predictor flashed in the US bond market last week: the most closely watched part of the Treasury yield curve inverted. Michael Darda, chief economist and market strategist at MKM Partners, said in a note this week that stock markets usually, but not always, peak after a yield curve inversion. Peter Boockvar, chief …

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Why bond yields are surging around the world

2 days, 5 hours ago

Why bond yields are surging around the world

Live Mint

Government-bond yields have surged across the developed world in recent weeks, jarring stocks and pressuring indebted countries. Yields on U.S. Treasurys, which rise when bond prices fall, got their first big boost in October with the release of strong monthly jobs data that wiped away fears of a looming recession. Yields on ultrasafe government debt are largely determined by investors’ …

Treasury Bond Investors Rate German Yields Bond Yields

A bond selloff is rocking the world. You might want to take the other side.

Trending News

3 days, 3 hours ago

A bond selloff is rocking the world. You might want to take the other side.

Live Mint

Wall Street is really worried about bonds. On Friday, a jobs report that blew past expectations pushed yields on 10-year Treasurys to 4.772%, the highest close since Nov. 1, 2023, and those on 30-year paper to 4.962%. Rather, it might be the result of investors applying a higher discount or “term premium" to hold long-term bonds, estimates by the Federal …

Treasury Central Banks Yields Yield Term Bonds

Last Time Bond Yields Surged Like This, Stock Markets Sank

Trending News

1 week ago

Last Time Bond Yields Surged Like This, Stock Markets Sank

Live Mint

There’s room for stock markets to fall further as bond yields approach levels that have been painful for equities in recent years. The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to levels just shy of 4.7%, the highest since April after an almost uninterrupted surge of more than one percentage point since mid-September. “Equity/bond yield correlations have turned negative again,” Goldman Sachs …

Yield

US yields rise on strong data amid supply

Trending News

1 week ago

US yields rise on strong data amid supply

Live Mint

* US job openings grow, exceeding forecasts * Market anticipates Fed rate cuts will be less than previously expected * Fiscal trajectory has pushed up long-term yields By Karen Brettell NEW YORK, Jan 7 - Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields hit an eight-month high on Tuesday after better than expected data pointed to a strong economy and as the Treasury auctioned …

Treasury New York Fed Rate Points Yields Basis

Treasury Yields Edge Higher With Long-Term Debt Out of Favor

3 weeks, 1 day ago

Treasury Yields Edge Higher With Long-Term Debt Out of Favor

Live Mint

-- Treasury yields rose on Monday as traders continue to see a slower pace of interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve next year and the potential worsening of country’s fiscal backdrop under President-elect Donald Trump’s administration. The moves Monday built on a rise in yields last week following US central bank officials latest quarterly projections — dubbed the dot …

Treasury Fed Yields Treasury Yields Neutral Rate Rate Reductions

Longer-dated yields climb as investors consider recession outlook

4 months, 2 weeks ago

Longer-dated yields climb as investors consider recession outlook

Live Mint

* U.S. two-year note auction better than expected * U.S. 2/10 year yield curve inversion narrowest in 3 weeks * Investors await PCE data due Friday By Caroline Valetkevitch NEW YORK, Aug 27 - U.S. Treasury longer-dated yields edged higher on Tuesday, as investors assessed the likelihood that the U.S. economy will be able to avoid a recession, while a …

Treasury Investors Fed Rate Yields Note Yield

The Fed’s high rates spur fear of slowdown, yet recession signals have so far proved wrong

5 months, 1 week ago

The Fed’s high rates spur fear of slowdown, yet recession signals have so far proved wrong

Associated Press

WASHINGTON — The turmoil shaking global financial markets reflects a sudden fear that the Federal Reserve may have held its key interest rate too high for too long, heightening the risk of a U.S. recession. “Absent a shock, it’s a bit more challenging to get into a recession.” Other previously notable recession indicators that have flopped in the post-pandemic era …

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RBI maintains status quo: A year without rate changes

11 months, 1 week ago

RBI maintains status quo: A year without rate changes

Live Mint

It is now exactly one year since the Reserve Bank of India last changed rates—a hike of 25 basis points to 6.5% last February. Flat or inverted yield curves only make sense if the market expects short-term rates to be much lower in the future. For a central bank, premature rate cuts may put inflation at risk of rising through …

Growth Market Flat Rate Rbi Rates Rate Cuts

The yield on a 10-year Treasury reached 5% for the 1st time since 2007. Here’s why that matters

1 year, 2 months ago

The yield on a 10-year Treasury reached 5% for the 1st time since 2007. Here’s why that matters

Associated Press

NEW YORK — The yield on the 10-year Treasury has reached 5% for the first time since 2007. It also directly affects people around the world, because the 10-year Treasury yield is the centerpiece of the global financial system and helps set prices for all kinds of other loans and investments. The 10-year Treasury yield has been catching up to …

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Why are bond yields surging around the global markets? - Explained

1 year, 3 months ago

Why are bond yields surging around the global markets? - Explained

Live Mint

Over the past six months, the international bonds yield has been on a haywire. Sustained expectations of inflation are likely to keep yields above this conventional range, potentially detrimental to economic growth and the stock market, as both household and corporate spending face constraints. The prevailing high bond yields are primarily driven by the market demands for premiums when investing …

Economy Market Inflation Indian Bond High Fed

Why are global bond yields rising?

1 year, 4 months ago

Why are global bond yields rising?

Live Mint

Global bond yields are flaring up to the levels unseen in years, drawing support from strong macroeconomic data that makes a case for continuing with the monetary tightening policy through interest rate hikes. The US treasury yields have climbed almost 40 bps month-to-date amid rising bets that interest rates will remain elevated for longer. However, while the 10-year US yield …

India Inflation Indian Interest Rates Interest Bond Investors

Bright start for bonds to new year eases market pressures

1 year, 11 months ago

Bright start for bonds to new year eases market pressures

Live Mint

Another strong week for the U.S. bond market is giving investors increasing hope that they can turn the page on a brutal 2022. Last week’s consumer-price index report was then also encouraging, hinting at a continued slowdown in the type of services inflation that Fed officials have spotlighted as particularly important. Last year, the S&P 500 fell over 19%, while …

Inflation Bond Investors Fed Yields Bonds Treasury Yields

As Fed tightens, economists worry it will go too far

2 years, 5 months ago

As Fed tightens, economists worry it will go too far

Live Mint

Economists increasingly expect the Federal Reserve, in its efforts to push down inflation, to raise rates enough to trigger a recession, with many worrying the central bank will go too far. “Fiscal and monetary policy was left too loose for too long and now the Fed is playing catch-up and this always comes with a chance of overshoot," said James …

Inflation Treasury Average Rate Rates Months Expect

3-Year Bond Yields Lowest In Over A Month: What It Means, What Investors Should Do

2 years, 6 months ago

3-Year Bond Yields Lowest In Over A Month: What It Means, What Investors Should Do

News 18

India’s benchmark 10-year bond yield on Monday fell to its lowest level since May 27 to 7.355 per cent. A market expert said the ease in bond yield is a positive news for the economy and the markets as the rising bond yields raises the companies’ cost of borrowing. Motilal Oswal said that if the bond yields go up then …

Markets Bond Cent Yields Bond Yields Yield Bond Yield

What is a recession? When is the next one going to begin? – Firstpost

2 years, 6 months ago

What is a recession? When is the next one going to begin? – Firstpost

Firstpost

According to America’s National Bureau of Economic Research, a recession is ‘a significant decline in economic activity’ that is widespread and lasts several months. That means not only shrinking GDP but also declining incomes, employment, industrial production and retail sales Chaotic stock markets, sky-high interest rates and the pain of inflation have left one question at the top of Americans’ …

Economy Economic Cent Fed Bureau Economic Research Recession

India better placed to avoid risk of stagflation: RBI officials

2 years, 6 months ago

India better placed to avoid risk of stagflation: RBI officials

The Hindu

India’s economy is better placed than many other countries to avoid the risk of potential stagflation, Reserve Bank of India officials headed by Deputy Governor Michael D. Patra wrote in an article in the June edition of the RBI Bulletin. “Global economic conditions continued to deteriorate as ratcheting up of commodity prices and financial market volatility have led to heightened …

India Economy Growth Inflation Rbi Global Economic

EXPLAINER: Recession fears grow. But how high is the risk?

2 years, 8 months ago

EXPLAINER: Recession fears grow. But how high is the risk?

The Independent

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. And when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke at …

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Operation Twist: RBI’s go-to move in times of crisis

4 years, 3 months ago

Operation Twist: RBI’s go-to move in times of crisis

Live Mint

The Reserve Bank of India conducted another Operation Twist last week to manage government security yields. The US Federal Reserve, along with other central banks have over the years used such measures with the intention of lowering long-term rates, reducing the cost of capital, increasing lending activity and consequently, accelerating growth rates. In the Operation Twist conducted on 1 October, …

Rbi Operation Yield Operation Twist

Plunging yields force investors and Fed to rethink strategy

4 years, 10 months ago

Plunging yields force investors and Fed to rethink strategy

Associated Press

WASHINGTON — The response in stock markets to the growing risk from the coronavirus has been swift and fierce. The plunging yields across bond markets could hamstring the Federal Reserve’s ability to respond to a future recession. The shrunken bond yields will also make it harder for those who invest in them to earn much income: The return on the …

Europe China Japan Treasury Bond Investors Fed

With the warning lights flashing, how likely is a global recession?

5 years, 2 months ago

With the warning lights flashing, how likely is a global recession?

The Independent

Just how likely is a global recession? The aforementioned 3 per cent represents a marked slowdown from last year’s 3.6 per cent. Oxford Economics recently identified seven of them: world industrial output, global stocks, commodity prices, corporate bond spreads, US credit standards, a US earnings recession and the US bond yield curve. Despite the fear that’s been spread through the …

Cent Rate Yield Curve Recession Warning Lights

Opinion | The world could be staring at a long era of deflation

5 years, 4 months ago

Opinion | The world could be staring at a long era of deflation

Live Mint

There are three games of chicken currently in play in the US. The second is associated with US President Donald Trump’s constant dissatisfaction with the US Federal Reserve on the need to cut real interest rates more aggressively, though a rate cut happened last quarter and another seems in sight. The third, which seems more perplexing, is the Fed’s internal …

Productivity Growth Interest Rates Interest Bond Fed Rate

Wall Street’s favorite recession signal suggests the economy is in trouble

5 years, 4 months ago

Wall Street’s favorite recession signal suggests the economy is in trouble

CNN

New York CNN Business — Wall Street’s favorite fortuneteller is telling an ominous story about the fate of America’s economy. If things continue to escalate, that poses a real threat to the business cycle.” James McCann, senior global economist at Aberdeen Standard Investments “Anything over 30% is very bad,” said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. “Everyone either looks at …

China Trade Model Long Sector Fed Ubs

Why people should not get too worked up about recession fears

5 years, 4 months ago

Why people should not get too worked up about recession fears

CNN

New York CNN Business — Trade war fears are rattling investors. There is not enough evidence to suggest we are on the immediate verge of recession,” said Steve Chiavarone, a portfolio manager and equity strategist at Federated Investors. “Fears of a near-term recession are overblown,” said KC Mathews, chief investment officer with UMB Bank. “It’s extremely important for investors to …

Market Investors Trade War Recession War Fears Trade War Fears Chiavarone

Echoes of 1930s in trade-cum-currency war

5 years, 4 months ago

Echoes of 1930s in trade-cum-currency war

Live Mint

Even as some Indian investors cheer the rollback of contentious budget proposals by the finance ministry, an escalation of the US-China conflict seems to have spooked markets worldwide. As the monetary stimulus provided by central banks of advanced economies have run their course without lifting the real economy significantly, and the two major global powers have continued to escalate their …

Global India China Markets War Interest Rates Currency

How to invest if you’re worried a recession is coming

5 years, 4 months ago

How to invest if you’re worried a recession is coming

Salon

Although the U.S. economy continues to grow and add jobs, talk of a recession is increasingly in the air due to a number of worrying signs. But the continued growth of defined contribution plans like 401s — which require people to make choices about where to put their money — means their financial security increasingly depends on their own investment …

Market Investment Investors Invest

Two Yield Curve Indicators : Planet Money

5 years, 4 months ago

Two Yield Curve Indicators : Planet Money

NPR

Two Yield Curve Indicators Enlarge this image toggle caption NPR NPR The yield curve plots the interest rates on government bonds. When the interest rates on long-term government bonds are lower than the interest rates on short-term government bonds, the yield curve is inverted. That's because, for the past six decades, three months of an inverted yield curve was followed …

Curve Yield

Dow tumbles 800 points after bond market flashes a recession warning

5 years, 5 months ago

Dow tumbles 800 points after bond market flashes a recession warning

CNN

New York CNN Business — The Dow fell 800 points Wednesday after the bond market, for the first time in over a decade, flashed a warning signal that has an eerily accurate track record for predicting recessions. But Wednesday marked the first time in over a decade that the “main” yield curve — the 2-year / 10-year ratio — had …

Treasury Investors Dow Fell Curve Yield Recession

Gold climbs to six-year high above $1,500, bond yields collapse on trade war fears

5 years, 5 months ago

Gold climbs to six-year high above $1,500, bond yields collapse on trade war fears

CNN

New York CNN Business — Frazzled investors are rushing to buy gold and government bonds as fears of a global recession, sparked by a trade war, grow more real. The drop in yields is getting scary.” Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group Taken together, the developments suggest that investors and central bankers are bracing for economic and …

China Gold Bond Yields Bonds Yield Thin

S&P 500 and Nasdaq erase losses after bond market scare

5 years, 5 months ago

S&P 500 and Nasdaq erase losses after bond market scare

CNN

New York CNN Business — The Dow and the broader US stock market had another volatile day as Wall Street investors fear the US-China trade war will inflict broad damage on the global economy. “Whilst we can be sure that global central banks will step up to the plate to alleviate the impact of the trade war — most likely …

Bond Rate Nasdaq Yield

Bond rally: The bond market is freaking out. Here’s why that matters

5 years, 7 months ago

Bond rally: The bond market is freaking out. Here’s why that matters

CNN

New York CNN Business — The bond market is once again sending a big fat warning sign about the US economy. Inverted yield curve is often a sign of bad things to come The yield on the 3-month US bond is currently higher than the 10-year, hovering around 2.35%. Yields sliding in rest of the world But bond yields around …

Europe China Treasury Bond Investors Yields Bond Yields

Stock Indexes Drop As Bond Market Flashes Recession Warning

5 years, 9 months ago

Stock Indexes Drop As Bond Market Flashes Recession Warning

NPR

Stock Indexes Drop As Bond Market Flashes Recession Warning Enlarge this image toggle caption Spencer Platt/Getty Images Spencer Platt/Getty Images The stock market tumbled Friday as investors digested an ominous warning sign: Interest rates on long-term government debt fell below the rate on short-term bills. "We don't see that occur that often, but when it does, it's almost always bad …

Interest Rates Yield Recession

Opinion | 14,889,930,106,680 reasons to fear recession

6 years ago

Opinion | 14,889,930,106,680 reasons to fear recession

Hindustan Times

Traders and investors will be glad to see the back of 2018. Talking about a recession It’s clear that one of the fundamental worries spooking investors is that the period of coordinated global growth that propelled stock markets higher in recent years is coming to an end. Europe stumbles Europe has seen growth falter this year, with Italy’s political crisis …

Europe Growth Italy China Japan Trump Germany

Stability returns to bond market, but till when?

6 years, 5 months ago

Stability returns to bond market, but till when?

Live Mint

On 17 July, the traded volume of the 10-year benchmark government paper rose to ₹ 32,450 crore, something last seen in October 2016. The yield curve continues to be inverted with the five-year bond yield at 7.94% but it’s driven by demand for and supply of government papers. Many analysts are expecting the yield to drop further as the gap …

Market Bank Price Rate Rbi Banks Bond Yields