Gentle turning point or a turn for the worse? RBA mulls over jobs disappointment
5 years, 1 month ago

Gentle turning point or a turn for the worse? RBA mulls over jobs disappointment

ABC  

Has the Reserve Bank's much hoped for "gentle turning point" become a "turn for the worse"? That would sit comfortably with RBA's commitment "to expect that an extended period of low interest rates will be required" while it could also lift core inflation by 0.2 percentage points on JP Morgan's modelling. "Central banks have turned the liquidity taps back on again," Citi's global credit strategist Matt King says. Markets on Friday's close: ASX SPI 200 futures +0.4pc at 6,726; ASX 200 +0.9pc at 6,793 AUD: 68.1 US cents; 61.7 euro cents; 52.8 British pence; 74.1 Japanese yen; $NZ1.06 US: Dow Jones +0.7pc at 27,681; S&P500 +0.6pc at 3,117; NASDAQ +0.6pc at 8,541 Europe: FTSE +0.1pc at 7,303; DAX +0.5pc at 13,242; EuroStoxx50 +0.6pc at 3,712 Commodities: Brent oil +1.8pc at $US63.37/barrel; Gold -0.3 at $US1,467/ounce; Iron ore $US83.50/tonne Trade talks Most of this week's focus will be on whether the US and China can come up with set of mutually agreeable words that not only narrow their differences of opinion, but provide a material reduction in tariffs. The minutes may be a bit dated after poor wages and jobs data AGMs Mirvac, REA, Wisetech Investor days Insights into future plans for Qantas & Woodside Wednesday 20/11/2019 Skilled vacancies Oct: Another forward looking indicator of the jobs market that has been getting weaker Results Aristocrat Leisure FY profit expected to be around $880m AGMs Goodman Group, Lend Lease, Scentre, Webjet Thursday 21/11/2019 AGMs A2 Milk, Bluescope Steel, Newscorp, Qube Friday 22/11/2019 Manufacturing survey Oct: The newish CBA survey should show Australia's factories are doing OK AGM Resmed Overseas

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History of this topic

RBA Is More Confident on CPI, But Too Early to Declare Victory
2 weeks, 3 days ago

RBA Is More Confident on CPI, But Too Early to Declare Victory

Live Mint  

-- Australia’s central bank is more confident that inflation is moving sustainably toward target but it’s still too soon to conclude the battle is won given a recent pick-up in consumption and a still-tight labor market, minutes of the December meeting showed. The Reserve Bank’s board discussed scenarios in which future policy would be eased to boost economic growth or …

Australia's unemployment rate falls to 3.9pc in November, its lowest level since March
4 weeks, 1 day ago

Australia's unemployment rate falls to 3.9pc in November, its lowest level since March

ABC  

Australia's unemployment rate fell to 3.9 per cent in November, down from 4.1 per cent in October. "The only downside to Australia's remarkably strong job market is that any hope of a near-term interest rate cut is over," said Callam Pickering, APAC economist at global job site Indeed. "Today's blockbuster November employment report seemingly pushes back — yet again — …

Labor is leaning into an assault on the 'barbarians' at the bank. It may be great politics, but the economics are trickier
4 months ago

Labor is leaning into an assault on the 'barbarians' at the bank. It may be great politics, but the economics are trickier

ABC  

There's plenty of buyer's remorse inside Labor these days. Treasurer Jim Chalmers has blamed successive interest rate rises for "smashing the economy", as the government braces for more weak economic figures due this week. Failure to bring inflation back to the bank's 2 per cent to 3 per cent target range would ultimately force the Reserve Bank to "slow the …

RBA keeps interest rate at 4.35 per cent, says rate rise could be on cards as governor says she's not expecting a recession in Australia
6 months, 3 weeks ago

RBA keeps interest rate at 4.35 per cent, says rate rise could be on cards as governor says she's not expecting a recession in Australia

ABC  

The Reserve Bank has kept interest rates on hold at 4.35 per cent. "Inflation has fallen substantially since its peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance," the Board said. RBA governor warns the narrow path is 'getting a bit narrower,' but doesn't expect a recession The RBA board …

Australia's unemployment rate declines to 4 per cent in May, presenting a 'goldilocks' scenario for Reserve Bank
6 months, 4 weeks ago

Australia's unemployment rate declines to 4 per cent in May, presenting a 'goldilocks' scenario for Reserve Bank

ABC  

Australia's headline unemployment rate was 4 per cent in May, down 0.1 percentage points from April. However, ABS data show the "trend" unemployment rate — which looks through the more volatile seasonally adjusted monthly figure — picked up slightly in May, from 3.9 per cent to 4 per cent. "At 4 per cent, the unemployment rate is spot on the …

Australia's unemployment rate rises to 4.1 per cent in April
7 months, 3 weeks ago

Australia's unemployment rate rises to 4.1 per cent in April

ABC  

Australia's headline unemployment rate rose to 4.1 per cent in April, up 0.2 percentage points from March. "This suggests that the labour market remains tight, though less tight than late 2022 and early 2023," said Bjorn Jarvis, ABS head of labour statistics. "The bank will therefore be pleased that overall hours worked fell by 0.8 per cent year-on-year, the first …

Jobs market 'incredibly tight' despite rise in unemployment
8 months, 3 weeks ago

Jobs market 'incredibly tight' despite rise in unemployment

ABC  

Australia's headline unemployment rate increased slightly to 3.8 per cent in March, after employment fell by 7,000 people and unemployment rose by 21,000 people. "Despite a small drop in employment, Australia's labour market remains incredibly tight," said Callam Pickering, APAC senior economist at global job site Indeed. "The easing in the labour market since late 2022 is most evident in …

RBA leaves door open to interest rate cuts and rises as unemployment risks rise
9 months, 3 weeks ago

RBA leaves door open to interest rate cuts and rises as unemployment risks rise

ABC  

What a difference six weeks makes. Economists and traders expect the US Federal Reserve to lead off a global round of interest rate cuts, but recent economic data suggests the RBA should beat them to it. CBA's head of Australian economics Gareth Aird points out that the RBA board made seven references to "uncertainty" in its one-page post-meeting statement, up …

Did the Reserve Bank hit the brakes too hard? Why Australia's economy is heading into reverse
10 months ago

Did the Reserve Bank hit the brakes too hard? Why Australia's economy is heading into reverse

ABC  

The softening-up process is already underway. There's now every possibility the GDP numbers could tip negative, giving the first real indication that Australia's economy is shrinking under the weight of 13 interest rate hikes in quick succession. The RBA lifted the cash rate to 4.35 per cent last November, but it hasn't fully flowed through to the whole economy. Prepare …

Australia narrowly avoided recession this year — what these experts think will happen in 2024
1 year ago

Australia narrowly avoided recession this year — what these experts think will happen in 2024

ABC  

Fears that Australia would enter a technical recession during 2023 didn't eventuate. "I think the last interest rate hike in November has led to a bit of a perhaps change in expectation that maybe we haven't seen the peak in interest rates in Australia," AMP's deputy chief economist Diana Mousina said. "I'll be the first to say that we were …

How record immigration has kept your wages down, fed inflation
1 year ago

How record immigration has kept your wages down, fed inflation

Daily Mail  

Australia's biggest bank says record-high immigration has suppressed wages, fed inflation and pushed up house prices. Australia's biggest bank says high immigration has suppressed wages, fed inflation and pushed up house prices Ben Thompson, the chief executive of cloud-based payroll firm Employment Hero, feared Australia would go into recession in 2024 as small and medium enterprises - also known as …

Recession looming as jobs market weakens, says Bank rate-setter
1 year, 2 months ago

Recession looming as jobs market weakens, says Bank rate-setter

The Telegraph  

Ms Dhingra was speaking as economists said official data showing a slowdown in pay growth would fuel hopes the Bank of England has raised rates far enough to weaken the jobs market and ease a key driver behind inflation. Average weekly earnings in the three months to August were up 8.1pc compared with the same period last year, slowing from …

An embarrassment of riches: Why our corporate leaders are playing it cool on record profits
1 year, 4 months ago

An embarrassment of riches: Why our corporate leaders are playing it cool on record profits

ABC  

Matt Comyn did his best to play the down-at-heel corporate leader staring into the abyss. He didn't crack a smile during last Thursday's press conference, he hammered home the point that the Commonwealth Bank profit margins were being squeezed in the second half and that "profitability" was actually higher way back in 2014. CBA profit tops $10 billion Photo shows …

The jobs market is strong for now, but unemployment will be the last indicator of recession
1 year, 6 months ago

The jobs market is strong for now, but unemployment will be the last indicator of recession

ABC  

The latest unemployment numbers had a lot of us scratching our heads — economists, journalists, financial traders, possibly even the statisticians themselves. After more than a year of interest rate rises at the fastest pace in recent history, all while Australians hold more debt than they ever have before, employers added close to 76,000 extra staff pushing unemployment back down …

Australia's economy grew by 0.2pc in March quarter, signalling marked slowdown in GDP
1 year, 7 months ago

Australia's economy grew by 0.2pc in March quarter, signalling marked slowdown in GDP

ABC  

Australia's economy grew 0.2 per cent in the first three months of 2023, according to the Bureau of Statistics. Key points: The economy is growing at an annual rate of 2.3 per cent, down from 2.7 per cent The household saving ratio has fallen to its lowest level in nearly 15 years Higher interest rates and the rising cost of …

Unemployment rate jumps from 3.5 per cent to 3.7 per cent in January figures
1 year, 10 months ago

Unemployment rate jumps from 3.5 per cent to 3.7 per cent in January figures

ABC  

Australia's unemployment rate has increased from 3.5 per cent to 3.7 per cent according to last month's figures, in seasonally adjusted terms. "January is the most seasonal time of the year in the Australian labour market, with people leaving jobs but also getting ready to start new jobs or return from leave," Mr Jarvis said. David Bassanese, the chief economist …

Australia's economy recovered in 2022, will it crash in 2023?
2 years ago

Australia's economy recovered in 2022, will it crash in 2023?

ABC  

Despite the odds, Australia largely withstood the global economic hurdles of 2022. "I think that's going to be the big story for next year, how much further for rates, how long do they hold and how quickly do we see the pricing dynamics and inflation ultimately being consistent with 2 to 3 per cent. "I think the unemployment rate's going …

Deutsche Bank forecasts Australia will enter a recession in 2023, following an expected rise in unemployment
2 years, 1 month ago

Deutsche Bank forecasts Australia will enter a recession in 2023, following an expected rise in unemployment

ABC  

If investment firm Deutsche Bank's forecasts hold true, Australia will enter a recession next year. Key points: Deutsche Bank expects Australia's unemployment rate to rise by one percentage point to 4.5 per cent by the end of 2023 The RBA's unemployment forecast for the end of 2023 is much lower, at 3.7 per cent A one percentage point drop qualifies …

Reserve Bank of Australia rejects 'scorched earth' policy to tame inflation with faster interest rate rises
2 years, 2 months ago

Reserve Bank of Australia rejects 'scorched earth' policy to tame inflation with faster interest rate rises

ABC  

Reserve Bank of Australia deputy governor Michele Bullock has said the bank wants to hang on to as much of the employment gains made during the pandemic as it can, even as it tries to cool the economy to tame inflation. Key points: RBA deputy governor says a "scorched earth" policy of rapid interest rate hikes would crush inflation quickly …

Reserve Bank warns Australians to brace for tough years ahead to get inflation under control
2 years, 2 months ago

Reserve Bank warns Australians to brace for tough years ahead to get inflation under control

ABC  

The Reserve Bank expects a couple of tough years for Australians, with real wages continuing to fall as inflation persists and unemployment starts to rise. Key points: RBA raises its inflation forecasts, with a peak of 8 per cent in December with the CPI still growing at 3.2 per cent at the end of 2024 Wages growth is expected to …

Will Australian policymakers ever want to see strong wage growth again?
2 years, 2 months ago

Will Australian policymakers ever want to see strong wage growth again?

ABC  

One of the joys of life is thinking about things in a way you're not supposed to, and that includes questioning the orthodoxy. It also contained some comments from Mr Jericho about Australia's "inflation-targeting" regime that has been in place since 1993. Who does inflation targeting really serve? "Inflation targeting in Australia since 1993 has not been neutral," Mr Jericho …

The Reserve Bank doesn't have enough information to make accurate interest rate calls, says former board member
2 years, 4 months ago

The Reserve Bank doesn't have enough information to make accurate interest rate calls, says former board member

ABC  

A former Reserve Bank board member says the method the RBA relies on to trigger interest rate rises is flawed. In December, the bank announced it would keep its cash rate target at the record low of 0.1 per cent and signalled to mortgage borrowers, renters, policymakers and global markets it would not seek to increase the cash rate until …

Reserve Bank of Australia warning of more interest rate rises as inflation soars
2 years, 7 months ago

Reserve Bank of Australia warning of more interest rate rises as inflation soars

Daily Mail  

Australian home borrowers are expected to be hit with an even bigger interest rate rise in June as inflation soars at an even faster pace than anticipated. Australian home borrowers are expected to be hit with an even bigger interest rate rise in June as inflation soars at an even faster pace than anticipated On Friday the 13th last week, …

Why a reopening of Australia's border could be bad news for workers wanting a pay rise
3 years, 2 months ago

Why a reopening of Australia's border could be bad news for workers wanting a pay rise

Daily Mail  

A reopening of Australia's borders could spell bad news for Australian workers who are hoping for a much-needed pay rise. A lack of available staff in October pushed the number of advertised jobs to 250,882 which was the highest level in 13 years, new National Skills Commission data showed But CommSec senior economist Ryan Felsman said a reopening of Australia's …

Australia’s reservoir of workers is starting to run low and that might just get you a pay rise
3 years, 6 months ago

Australia’s reservoir of workers is starting to run low and that might just get you a pay rise

ABC  

Think of Australia’s labour force as a reservoir. The Reserve Bank governor says Australia will probably maintain record low interest rates for longer than other developed nations because of weaker wages growth. Speaking after the RBA’s board meeting on Tuesday, he said borders would probably have to stay closed for another 18 months to two years before wage dynamics became …

Reserve Bank and Treasury admit 'full employment' is not what they thought it was. And it's held the country back
3 years, 8 months ago

Reserve Bank and Treasury admit 'full employment' is not what they thought it was. And it's held the country back

ABC  

When a glacier shifts a few inches, a gigantic movement has still occurred. It said its model had been showing that, in the five years prior to last year's recession, Australia's economy would be close to "full employment" when the unemployment rate was roughly 5 per cent. He said Australia could have an unemployment rate of 4 per cent "tomorrow" …

The COVID-19 pandemic helped unemployment figures, but spare capacity clouds Australia's future
3 years, 8 months ago

The COVID-19 pandemic helped unemployment figures, but spare capacity clouds Australia's future

ABC  

When it comes to jobs, Australia's recovery after the economic shock of the national, pandemic-driven lockdown has been nothing short of astonishing, at least if you check the headline numbers. In February, the unemployment rate dived to 5.8 per cent, way below the 6.3 per cent jobless rate in January, a performance that stunned pundits and professional economic soothsayers alike. …

Quick bounce back unlikely for Australian economy post-coronavirus despite political optimism
4 years, 7 months ago

Quick bounce back unlikely for Australian economy post-coronavirus despite political optimism

ABC  

When will the penny drop? On Friday, the Reserve Bank forecast unemployment would hit 10 per cent this year and remain high until the end of next year. Our $214 billion may seem small in comparison but our direct financial injection when measured against GDP, was 10.6 per cent of our economy. If the Reserve Bank's projections are correct, and …

The immediate struggle is to absorb the unemployed. But the path to recovery after coronavirus recession will shape economies for years
4 years, 8 months ago

The immediate struggle is to absorb the unemployed. But the path to recovery after coronavirus recession will shape economies for years

ABC  

Australia's political class has started arguing about the best way to restart the economy. In 2000, when Australia's population was 19 million, the Bureau of Statistics projected population growth would slow to a crawl by 2050 due to a severe decline in the birth rate and low migration. The shift in policy has caused Australia's population to swell by 30 …

Coronavirus to lead to biggest contraction of Australia's economy since Great Depression, Reserve Bank warns
4 years, 8 months ago

Coronavirus to lead to biggest contraction of Australia's economy since Great Depression, Reserve Bank warns

ABC  

Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has warned Australia is this year likely to experience its biggest contraction in national output since the Great Depression. Key points: Dr Lowe says the national output is likely to fall by about 10 per cent over the first half of 2020 The unemployment rate is likely to be around 10 per cent by June, …

Will a lower dollar bail out the economy, raise wages and lower unemployment? The RBA is hoping so
5 years, 2 months ago

Will a lower dollar bail out the economy, raise wages and lower unemployment? The RBA is hoping so

ABC  

Putting together the latest quarterly update on the Australian economy could hardly have been a fun job for the Reserve Bank. Key points: Wages and jobless data this week are expected to back-up the RBA's bleak view of both The RBA says a 5 per cent fall in the $A will help boost wages, push inflation into its target band …

Reserve Bank of Australia reveals why wage levels have been flat for years
5 years, 6 months ago

Reserve Bank of Australia reveals why wage levels have been flat for years

Daily Mail  

The Reserve Bank has revealed why Australian workers are being denied pay increases. Wages have grown at a record-low pace for five years, with pay levels failing to rise above the 2.5 per cent level since 2014 They found workers were missing out, from the lowest-paid employees on awards, to professionals on individual contracts and even public servants, traditionally Australia's …

Jobs are the main factor keeping Australia's economy from recession
5 years, 7 months ago

Jobs are the main factor keeping Australia's economy from recession

ABC  

Australia's economy is hanging tough, stubbornly refusing to capitulate to recession after a world-record 28 years of growth. Even as Australia's economic growth rate dropped off the edge of a cliff mid-last year — with quarterly growth plunging from 0.9 per cent in the June quarter to 0.3 per cent in September and down further to 0.2 per cent in …

Reserve Bank says housing won't 'derail the economy' but tight-fisted bosses might
5 years, 10 months ago

Reserve Bank says housing won't 'derail the economy' but tight-fisted bosses might

ABC  

The Reserve Bank governor has issued his strongest call yet for bigger pay rises, telling a parliamentary committee that weak wage rises are a bigger threat to the economy than falling house prices. Key points: RBA governor says price falls "put our housing markets on more sustainable footings" Dr Lowe calls for minimum wage increase to continue being above 3 …

Is the Reserve Bank's glass about to become half-empty?
5 years, 11 months ago

Is the Reserve Bank's glass about to become half-empty?

ABC  

In July last year, the Reserve Bank slipped an important phrase into its board meeting minutes, informing all and sundry "the next move in the cash rate would more likely be an increase than a decrease". This week in finance: Banking and financial services royal commission report tabled RBA rates meeting and Statement on Monetary Policy Company results season starts …

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