Four charts that explain the inflation situation
Hindustan TimesOn January 12, the National Statistical Office reported that retail inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, was 5.7% in December 2022. See Chart 1: Annual CPI and WPI.And MPC overestimating inflation every quarter this fiscal suggests that it has peaked earlier than expected RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee comes up with its quarterly retail inflation forecast every two months. See Chart 2: MPC projection and actual inflation However, retail inflation picture looks less comforting as far as non-food prices are concerned. Retail food inflation – it has a weight of 39% in the CPI basket – has fallen from 8.6% in September 2022 to 4.2% in December 2022. See Chart 4: Food CPI sub-categories in December 2022 This is why experts are divided over RBI’s future course of action The immediate policy question, as far as inflation is concerned is whether MPC will raise interest rates for the sixth consecutive time in its February meeting.