Lessons from India’s all-cause mortality data
The HinduThe scale of devastation caused by India’s COVID-19 epidemic is gradually becoming clearer. If these 12 States reflect the national picture, then India saw around 2.8 million excess deaths nationwide during April 2020-May 2021. Global comparison Using limited data for June, or assuming that the ratio of excess deaths to official COVID-19 deaths does not change rapidly, we estimate 3.5 million-3.7 million excess deaths nationwide by the end of June. In Maharashtra excess deaths up to May 2021 are roughly four times recorded COVID-19 deaths, or less if we factor in reconciliations of COVID-19 deaths during June and July. And throughout the pandemic period, we see a very strong association between monthly excess deaths and official COVID-19 deaths, strongly suggesting these are pandemic-related excess deaths, and not a reflection of underlying trends in registration.