Coronavirus to lead to biggest contraction of Australia's economy since Great Depression, Reserve Bank warns
4 years, 8 months ago

Coronavirus to lead to biggest contraction of Australia's economy since Great Depression, Reserve Bank warns

ABC  

Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has warned Australia is this year likely to experience its biggest contraction in national output since the Great Depression. Key points: Dr Lowe says the national output is likely to fall by about 10 per cent over the first half of 2020 The unemployment rate is likely to be around 10 per cent by June, according to Dr Lowe But he also said all of Australia's economic successes would still be there once the virus was contained He also cautioned against lifting social-distancing restrictions too quickly, and said if coronavirus re-emerges and the tough restrictions had to be reimposed "the loss of incomes and jobs would be even more pronounced". "Putting precise numbers on the magnitude of this contraction is difficult, but our current thinking is along the following lines … National output is likely to fall by around 10 per cent over the first half of 2020, with most of this decline taking place in the June quarter. "As the economic data roll in over coming months, they will present a very sobering picture of the state of our economy," Dr Lowe said. Uncertainty over unemployment forecast Dr Lowe said it was harder to make forecasts about the unemployment rate, but it was likely the unemployment rate would remain above 6 per cent over the next couple of years.

Economy Recovery Unemployment Economic Cent Rate Likely Lowe Restrictions Our Economy Dr Lowe National Output Biggest Contraction  reserve  rate  cent  dr  restrictions  warns  coronavirus  depression  economic  likely  economy  lowe  great  recovery  contraction  lead  biggest  unemployment  bank

History of this topic

Australia's unemployment rate falls to 3.9pc in November, its lowest level since March
4 weeks ago

Australia's unemployment rate falls to 3.9pc in November, its lowest level since March

ABC  

Australia's unemployment rate fell to 3.9 per cent in November, down from 4.1 per cent in October. "The only downside to Australia's remarkably strong job market is that any hope of a near-term interest rate cut is over," said Callam Pickering, APAC economist at global job site Indeed. "Today's blockbuster November employment report seemingly pushes back — yet again — …

Unemployment may soon dip below 3 per cent and is set to stay below 5 per cent for years to come
2 years, 4 months ago

Unemployment may soon dip below 3 per cent and is set to stay below 5 per cent for years to come

ABC  

Unfathomably, Australia's unemployment rate has sunk to 3.5 per cent. In the years before COVID, typically 3 per cent of the workforce worked less than usual hours in any given week as a result of illness or injury. In the half century we have been collecting modern employment statistics, unemployment has shot up dramatically three times: in the mid-1970s, when …

Reserve Bank and Treasury admit 'full employment' is not what they thought it was. And it's held the country back
3 years, 8 months ago

Reserve Bank and Treasury admit 'full employment' is not what they thought it was. And it's held the country back

ABC  

When a glacier shifts a few inches, a gigantic movement has still occurred. It said its model had been showing that, in the five years prior to last year's recession, Australia's economy would be close to "full employment" when the unemployment rate was roughly 5 per cent. He said Australia could have an unemployment rate of 4 per cent "tomorrow" …

The COVID-19 pandemic helped unemployment figures, but spare capacity clouds Australia's future
3 years, 8 months ago

The COVID-19 pandemic helped unemployment figures, but spare capacity clouds Australia's future

ABC  

When it comes to jobs, Australia's recovery after the economic shock of the national, pandemic-driven lockdown has been nothing short of astonishing, at least if you check the headline numbers. In February, the unemployment rate dived to 5.8 per cent, way below the 6.3 per cent jobless rate in January, a performance that stunned pundits and professional economic soothsayers alike. …

Unemployment and underemployment fall as COVID recovery continues
3 years, 10 months ago

Unemployment and underemployment fall as COVID recovery continues

ABC  

Both unemployment and underemployment have continued their downward trends in further positive signs that Australia's economy is bouncing back quickly from COVID-19. Key points: Employment rose for the fourth consecutive month, leaving unemployment lower at 6.4 per cent Underemployment fell and is now below pre-pandemic levels at 8.1 per cent Victoria led the jobs recovery, and now has a smaller …

Underemployment and wages stagnation threatens COVID recovery, warns economist
3 years, 11 months ago

Underemployment and wages stagnation threatens COVID recovery, warns economist

ABC  

A leading economist is warning labour market slack will push your take-home pay lower over the next two years and that could threaten the nascent Australian economic recovery. Key points: Wages are expected to grow just 1.25 per cent per annum for the next 18 months Over the same period, consumer prices are expected to rise 1.5 per cent per …

Australia 'emerges from recession' after GDP figures show economy growing for the first time this year
4 years, 1 month ago

Australia 'emerges from recession' after GDP figures show economy growing for the first time this year

ABC  

The Reserve Bank governor is warning recovery from this year's recession is likely to be "uneven and drawn out" as Australia's gross domestic product grows for the first time in 2020. Key points: GDP rose 3.3 per cent this quarter, as COVID-19 restrictions eased across most states and territories Household consumption grew almost 8 per cent after a 12.5 per …

JobKeeper recipients drop by half in a single month as Treasurer hails economic recovery from coronavirus
4 years, 1 month ago

JobKeeper recipients drop by half in a single month as Treasurer hails economic recovery from coronavirus

ABC  

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg says a fall in the number of people receiving JobKeeper wage subsidies is a sign of momentum in the economy. Key points: The number of workers having their wages subsidised dropped significantly in October Josh Frydenberg says it's because fewer businesses can now show their turnover has dropped by 30 per cent By the end of September, …

Some media outlets say the recession caused by COVID-19 is over, but they're wrong
4 years, 2 months ago

Some media outlets say the recession caused by COVID-19 is over, but they're wrong

ABC  

The recession hasn't ended. Because economists use a range of definitions to pinpoint a recession, and one definition says if your economy experiences two consecutive quarters of shrinking activity then it's in recession. Photo shows Paul Keating It's close to 30 years since Australia's last recession, which saw vast numbers of people lose their jobs or struggle to break into …

Australians were suffering from weak wages growth long before the coronavirus pandemic
4 years, 3 months ago

Australians were suffering from weak wages growth long before the coronavirus pandemic

ABC  

Think about your income. Growth in real household disposable income has averaged 3.1 per cent since 2007, but between 2016 and 2019 it averaged just 1.4 per cent. "If the income-tax paid share was reduced to 13.7 per cent, the average of the period since 2002, $13 billion less taxes would have been paid over the past 12 months, representing …

Australia's coronavirus recession might soon be over, but the economic road back to full recovery will take years
4 years, 4 months ago

Australia's coronavirus recession might soon be over, but the economic road back to full recovery will take years

ABC  

And now for the good news. The long road to jobs recovery The last official recession we endured, back in 1991, appears as a tiny aberration in the economic growth story. But he's also stuck to his guns on the traditional supply-side measures, repeatedly hinting the October 6 budget may bring forward $158 billion in personal income tax cuts. Last …

Australia recession: The economy had its worst quarter on record
4 years, 4 months ago

Australia recession: The economy had its worst quarter on record

CNN  

Hong Kong/Sydney CNN Business — The coronavirus pandemic has officially pushed Australia into its first recession in nearly three decades. The country’s GDP contracted 7% in the second quarter compared to the prior one, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday. It marks the second straight quarter of declines for Australia — GDP shrank 0.3% in the first quarter — …

Victorian jobs slump amid stage 4 coronavirus lockdown, but 'COVID recession' bites elsewhere
4 years, 4 months ago

Victorian jobs slump amid stage 4 coronavirus lockdown, but 'COVID recession' bites elsewhere

ABC  

Paula Evans, owner of boutique Tierra Alma in beachside Mordialloc, didn't need the Australian Bureau of Statistics to tell her about the epic economic pain of Melbourne's August lockdown. Key points: Payroll jobs fell 1 per cent around the nation, but 2.8 per cent in Victoria, in the month to August 8 Melbourne entered tough stage 4 coronavirus restrictions on …

Australia's economy was weak before coronavirus. Could a 'job guarantee' help repair the economy?
4 years, 5 months ago

Australia's economy was weak before coronavirus. Could a 'job guarantee' help repair the economy?

ABC  

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg hates it when it's pointed out, but Australia's economy was in poor health well before COVID-19 hit our shores. "The last time we got to a 10 per cent unemployment rate was after the '91 recession and it took a decade to get it back to about 5 per cent," he said. " On Friday, the Reserve …

Federal Government deficit hits record high of $86 billion as coronavirus devastates the economy
4 years, 5 months ago

Federal Government deficit hits record high of $86 billion as coronavirus devastates the economy

ABC  

Australia's budget deficit hit almost $86 billion last financial year, the biggest blow to the bottom line since World War II, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has revealed. Key points: A forecasted $5 billion surplus for 2019-20 ended in a deficit of almost $86 billion A forecasted $5 billion surplus for 2019-20 ended in a deficit of almost $86 billion It is …

Debt and deficit go out the window as the reality of the coronavirus crisis hits home
4 years, 5 months ago

Debt and deficit go out the window as the reality of the coronavirus crisis hits home

ABC  

When will it finally sink in? As Treasurer Josh Frydenberg and Finance Minister Matthias Cormann grimly fronted a media pack in Canberra, fresh after releasing Treasury's latest tally of COVID-19's financial toll, they were peppered with endless questions about how we will ever dig ourselves out of debt after all this Federal Government largesse. Debt, debt and more debt Having …

Recessions punish our youth and the coronavirus downturn is no different
4 years, 5 months ago

Recessions punish our youth and the coronavirus downturn is no different

ABC  

What exactly is a recession? While economic growth bounced back relatively quickly, it took years — decades even — for the jobs market to recover, to finally return to the level it was before the recession hit. While we could see a small lift when the latest jobs numbers land this Thursday, all the indications are that — despite the …

Victoria's coronavirus lockdown won't help an economy that's being held hostage by a pandemic
4 years, 6 months ago

Victoria's coronavirus lockdown won't help an economy that's being held hostage by a pandemic

ABC  

The fate of the economy, at least as far as the eye can see, has been resting on how well the authorities can control the spread of coronavirus. He says the current unemployment rate is actually more like 11.5 per cent, despite Australian Bureau of Statistics figures showing the "headline" rate is a fraction over 7 per cent. "I think …

Victorian economy hardest hit by coronavirus fallout as immigration dries up
4 years, 6 months ago

Victorian economy hardest hit by coronavirus fallout as immigration dries up

ABC  

Australia's second-most populous state was poised to take the biggest economic hit from the COVID-19 pandemic even before a dramatic spike in cases over the past fortnight forced renewed shutdowns in large parts of Melbourne. Key points: Victoria's gross state product is expected to fall 1.6pc in 2020-21 The state is vulnerable due to its reliance on immigration from overseas …

The coronavirus recession is like no other — and it risks becoming a chronic problem
4 years, 7 months ago

The coronavirus recession is like no other — and it risks becoming a chronic problem

ABC  

Forget what you know about recessions, this one is very different — and it may be chronic. That's not to say we're about to experience years of economic contraction or "negative growth" as economists like to say, but it's going to remain tough going for many Australians for years. This is the combination of two overbearing forces: an economy built …

This is the recession we knew we were in, but we might already be on the way out of it
4 years, 7 months ago

This is the recession we knew we were in, but we might already be on the way out of it

ABC  

The Treasurer is clearly a student of the Basil Fawlty school of communication. In Wednesday's media release and press conference, and again on ABC News Breakfast on Thursday, the Treasurer studiously avoided mentioning the "R word", recession, at all. Don't get caught up in technicalities Actually, on the technical definition of a recession, Australia isn't there yet and we won't …

Australia suffers first recession in 29 years due to Covid-19
4 years, 7 months ago

Australia suffers first recession in 29 years due to Covid-19

CNN  

Sydney/Hong Kong CNN Business — Australia’s economy is suffering its first recession in nearly three decades as the nation grapples with the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. The country’s economy shrank 0.3% in the first three months of the year from the previous quarter, according to the Australia Bureau of Statistics. Despite the recession, Frydenberg said Australia has “avoided the …

NSW Government forecast shows coronavirus to slash up to $20 billion from state's economy
4 years, 7 months ago

NSW Government forecast shows coronavirus to slash up to $20 billion from state's economy

ABC  

The coronavirus pandemic could see between $10-20 billion slashed from New South Wales revenue, with the Treasurer revealing "the hit to the economy is real". Key points: The Government half-year review in December forecast average surpluses of $1.9 billion over four years The Government half-year review in December forecast average surpluses of $1.9 billion over four years Projections now show …

Coronavirus will send WA economy into a recession for 2020–21, Treasurer Ben Wyatt confirms
4 years, 7 months ago

Coronavirus will send WA economy into a recession for 2020–21, Treasurer Ben Wyatt confirms

ABC  

Western Australia's Treasury expects coronavirus to send the state's economy into recession, with a contraction of 3.1 per cent predicted in the 2020–21 financial year as the economy takes a $12 billion hit. Key points: The economy is set to grow 0.7 per cent this financial year before contracting The economy is set to grow 0.7 per cent this financial …

Coronavirus fuels steepest-ever drop in Australian jobs
4 years, 7 months ago

Coronavirus fuels steepest-ever drop in Australian jobs

Al Jazeera  

Hundreds of thousands lost jobs as a result of the coronavirus lockdown, as government warns worse is yet to come. Australian jobs plunged by the most on record in April as hundreds of thousands of people became unemployee as a result of coronavirus lockdowns, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison warning Australians to brace for more “hard news”. Additionally, Prime Minister …

Coronavirus sent shockwaves through the Australian job market. Here are the numbers you need to know
4 years, 7 months ago

Coronavirus sent shockwaves through the Australian job market. Here are the numbers you need to know

ABC  

They're some of the first solid numbers on the impact COVID-19 restrictions are having on Australians' jobs, and they've been described as "devastating" and "terribly shocking" by Prime Minister Scott Morrison. Prime Minister Scott Morrison described the number as "terribly shocking, although not unanticipated", warning more dire employment numbers would follow Thursday's announcement. It's a drop of 2.4 per cent …

Unemployment rise 'devastating' for Australians hit by coronavirus restrictions, PM Scott Morrison says
4 years, 7 months ago

Unemployment rise 'devastating' for Australians hit by coronavirus restrictions, PM Scott Morrison says

ABC  

Prime Minister Scott Morrison says the loss of nearly 600,000 jobs in April is "devastating" for Australian families and communities affected by government restrictions and business shutdowns. Key points: Prime Minister says unemployment figures 'shocking' but not unanticipated Prime Minister says unemployment figures 'shocking' but not unanticipated The Federal Treasurer says women make up the majority of job losses The …

Quick bounce back unlikely for Australian economy post-coronavirus despite political optimism
4 years, 7 months ago

Quick bounce back unlikely for Australian economy post-coronavirus despite political optimism

ABC  

When will the penny drop? On Friday, the Reserve Bank forecast unemployment would hit 10 per cent this year and remain high until the end of next year. Our $214 billion may seem small in comparison but our direct financial injection when measured against GDP, was 10.6 per cent of our economy. If the Reserve Bank's projections are correct, and …

Scott Morrison rejects speculation the Government is considering winding back JobKeeper wage subsidy
4 years, 7 months ago

Scott Morrison rejects speculation the Government is considering winding back JobKeeper wage subsidy

ABC  

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has dismissed as speculation the suggestion his Government is considering winding back its $130 billion JobKeeper program, as Australia seeks to emerge from the coronavirus pandemic sooner than expected. Key points: Scott Morrison said Australia is only six weeks into the six-month JobKeeper program Scott Morrison said Australia is only six weeks into the six-month JobKeeper …

The immediate struggle is to absorb the unemployed. But the path to recovery after coronavirus recession will shape economies for years
4 years, 7 months ago

The immediate struggle is to absorb the unemployed. But the path to recovery after coronavirus recession will shape economies for years

ABC  

Australia's political class has started arguing about the best way to restart the economy. In 2000, when Australia's population was 19 million, the Bureau of Statistics projected population growth would slow to a crawl by 2050 due to a severe decline in the birth rate and low migration. The shift in policy has caused Australia's population to swell by 30 …

Australia must make workplaces coronavirus-safe and flatten the unemployment curve, Scott Morrison says
4 years, 8 months ago

Australia must make workplaces coronavirus-safe and flatten the unemployment curve, Scott Morrison says

ABC  

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has declared Australia must now work to flatten the curve of rising unemployment, pushing the need for workplaces and the broader economy to become "COVID-safe" so they can re-open. Key points: National Cabinet has agreed to a set of COVID-19 work safety principles National Cabinet has agreed to a set of COVID-19 work safety principles Mr …

Why did the official unemployment rate barely rise in March, despite coronavirus spurring job losses?
4 years, 8 months ago

Why did the official unemployment rate barely rise in March, despite coronavirus spurring job losses?

ABC  

Australia's official unemployment rate only rose slightly last month to 5.2 per cent, up from 5.1 per cent in February. 'Employed' but working zero hours However, next month we'll Stay up-to-date on the coronavirus outbreak Download the ABC News app and subscribe to our range of news alerts for the latest on how the pandemic is impacting the world The …

Economic expert warns Australia's economy will be hit WORSE than rest of the world by coronavirus
4 years, 8 months ago

Economic expert warns Australia's economy will be hit WORSE than rest of the world by coronavirus

Daily Mail  

Burman Invest's chief investment officer Julia Lee said the Australian economy faced 'a lot of pain' for the remainder of 2020. The International Monetary Fund is predicting a 6.7 per cent economic contraction for Australia this year A finance expert has warned Australia faces 'a lot of pain' for the remainder of 2020, as the coronavirus crisis hits twice as …

IMF forecasts big coronavirus growth hit amid world in a 'great lockdown'
4 years, 8 months ago

IMF forecasts big coronavirus growth hit amid world in a 'great lockdown'

ABC  

Australia's economy is expected to shrink dramatically this year as the global economy suffers its worst recession since the Great Depression. Key points: Australia's economy will likely be one of the worst-hit economies in the Asian region, shrinking by 6.7 per cent this year The IMF is tipping the global economy will shrink by 3 per cent this year, but …

Unemployment rate predicted to reach 10 per cent amid coronavirus pandemic, pushing Australia into recession
4 years, 8 months ago

Unemployment rate predicted to reach 10 per cent amid coronavirus pandemic, pushing Australia into recession

ABC  

Unemployment is set to soar to its highest rate in almost three decades, with 1.4 million Australians expected to be out of work. Key points: The unemployment rate will rise from 5.1 per cent to 10 per cent in the June quarter, according to Treasury figures But estimates show the rate would have been higher without the JobKeeper program The …

Coronavirus fallout could take Australian economy decade to recover from, KPMG says
4 years, 9 months ago

Coronavirus fallout could take Australian economy decade to recover from, KPMG says

ABC  

Australia's economy could take almost a decade to recover from the coronavirus fallout even after being cushioned by the Federal Government's $17.6 billion stimulus, according to a report out this morning. Key points: KPMG said in the best case scenario, Australia's economic growth would decline by 0.9 per cent in 2020 This, even with the Federal Government's stimulus measures, amounts …

Australia's economy was not in perfect health before the bushfires and coronavirus
4 years, 9 months ago

Australia's economy was not in perfect health before the bushfires and coronavirus

ABC  

The Reserve Bank of Australia knows part of its job is to keep confidence high. For evidence, he cited RBA governor Philip Lowe, who said in September last year that Australia's economy seemed to have reached a "gentle turning point" after a soft patch in 2018. They say household consumption — which makes up 56 per cent of the economy …

Scott Morrison says impact of coronavirus for Australia could be bigger than global financial crisis
4 years, 9 months ago

Scott Morrison says impact of coronavirus for Australia could be bigger than global financial crisis

ABC  

The economic impact of coronavirus on Australia could be greater than that of the global financial crisis, the Prime Minister has warned, as he prepares to unveil a stimulus package designed to stop Australia from sliding into recession. Key points: The Government's fiscal response aims to protect the budget and economy during the coronavirus crisis The stimulus package will be …

Australia's economy beats expectations ahead of bushfire, coronavirus impacts
4 years, 10 months ago

Australia's economy beats expectations ahead of bushfire, coronavirus impacts

ABC  

Australia's economy grew by a better-than-expected 0.5 per cent in the December quarter and 2.2 per cent over the past year, according to the Bureau of Statistics. Key points: Australia's GDP growth decelerated from 0.6 per cent in the September quarter to 0.5 per cent in the three months to December But the result was better than most economists forecast, …

Government's economic plan for coronavirus to be announced ahead of May Budget
4 years, 10 months ago

Government's economic plan for coronavirus to be announced ahead of May Budget

ABC  

The Federal Government's plan to shield the economy from the coronavirus fallout will be announced ahead of the May Budget, the Prime Minister has confirmed. Key points: The plan has been kept under wraps, but Mr Morrison says the details will be revealed in the next two months Mr Morrison refused to answer questions about whether the coronavirus outbreak and …

Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe sees coronavirus and bushfires as short-term economic speedbumps
4 years, 11 months ago

Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe sees coronavirus and bushfires as short-term economic speedbumps

ABC  

The Reserve Bank governor has painted a bright picture of the Australian economy in 2020, although one that will be clouded by the uncertain costs of bushfires and coronavirus early this year. Key points: The Reserve Bank is expecting above-average growth in Australia this year and next as the global economy improves RBA governor Philip Lowe says a truce in …

Gentle turning point or a turn for the worse? RBA mulls over jobs disappointment
5 years, 1 month ago

Gentle turning point or a turn for the worse? RBA mulls over jobs disappointment

ABC  

Has the Reserve Bank's much hoped for "gentle turning point" become a "turn for the worse"? That would sit comfortably with RBA's commitment "to expect that an extended period of low interest rates will be required" while it could also lift core inflation by 0.2 percentage points on JP Morgan's modelling. "Central banks have turned the liquidity taps back on …

Reserve Bank boss prodding Scott Morrison and Josh Frydenberg to stimulate Australian economy
5 years, 6 months ago

Reserve Bank boss prodding Scott Morrison and Josh Frydenberg to stimulate Australian economy

ABC  

Philip Lowe isn't the excitable type. In reducing official interest rates to an all-time low of 1 per cent, Mr Lowe's technically got just four 25-gauge shots left in the locker. He, like governors before him, see the Reserve being in a pact with the nation's executive when it comes to keeping inflation averaging within its 2-3 per cent range …

Jobs are the main factor keeping Australia's economy from recession
5 years, 6 months ago

Jobs are the main factor keeping Australia's economy from recession

ABC  

Australia's economy is hanging tough, stubbornly refusing to capitulate to recession after a world-record 28 years of growth. Even as Australia's economic growth rate dropped off the edge of a cliff mid-last year — with quarterly growth plunging from 0.9 per cent in the June quarter to 0.3 per cent in September and down further to 0.2 per cent in …

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