
What the fall in the Australian dollar tells us about the future of interest rate rises
ABCThere's growing evidence the economy is under stress. It's consistent with what soon-to-be RBA governor Michele Bullock said a few weeks back — that unemployment would "have to" rise for inflation to come down to the RBA's target band. "The fall reflects a combination of market expectations that the RBA may have finished hiking and uncertainty following the Fitch downgrade to the US which may increase pressure for fiscal austerity which could threaten the global growth outlook and hence cyclical currencies like the Australian dollar," AMP chief economist Shane Oliver said. "The Australian dollar is reacting to market interest rates, which have declined substantially in recent weeks and reflect an expectation that the RBA is likely at the end of its tightening cycle," he said. This week the drop in the Australian dollar can be attributed to strength in the US dollar, nerves on international financial markets and agreement among local and international currency investors that it's "safe" to assume the Reserve Bank is done with its monetary policy tightening cycle.
History of this topic

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