'Stagflation' fears haunt US markets despite Trump's pro-growth agenda
1 month, 1 week ago

'Stagflation' fears haunt US markets despite Trump's pro-growth agenda

The Hindu  

Stubborn inflation and President Donald Trump's hard-line trade policies have rekindled fears of stagflation, a worrying mix of sluggish growth and relentless inflation that haunted the U.S. in the 1970s, even as markets remain upbeat on his pro-growth agenda. "Stagflation has definitely re-emerged as a possibility because we have these policies that could hurt consumer demand even while persistent inflation limits the Federal Reserve's ability to maneuver," said Jack McIntyre, portfolio manager for Brandywine Global's fixed income strategies. This time around inflation expectations remain "anchored", meaning the long-term inflation picture is not fluctuating wildly with each fresh piece of economic data, said Evercore ISI in a recent note. "Tariffs and deportations are a recipe for inflation and hurt growth; both are negative supply shocks," he said, adding that negative supply shocks such as a crude oil price surge contributed to 1970s stagflation.

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History of this topic

Is Trump’s fiscal daredevilry a ticking time bomb for the US economy?
1 day, 20 hours ago

Is Trump’s fiscal daredevilry a ticking time bomb for the US economy?

Firstpost  

Instead of making America great again, President Donald Trump’s economic and trade policies, ranging from tariffs to unfunded tax cuts and borrowings, appear to be driving the nation towards stagflation US President Donald Trump has promised to make America great again, but he appears to be unleashing a ticking time bomb on the US economy. Trump economic and trade policies, …

‘Stagflation’ risk puts Federal Reserve in tricky spot as it meets this week
1 week, 3 days ago

‘Stagflation’ risk puts Federal Reserve in tricky spot as it meets this week

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — When Federal Reserve officials last met in late January, things looked pretty good: Hiring was solid. But even a mild version — with the unemployment rising from its current low level of 4.1%, while inflation stayed stuck above the Fed’s 2% target — would pose a challenge for the central bank. One development likely to unnerve Fed officials …

'Stagflation' fears grow as US Fed prepares key interest rate decision
1 week, 4 days ago

'Stagflation' fears grow as US Fed prepares key interest rate decision

India Today  

When Federal Reserve officials last met in late January, things looked pretty good: Hiring was solid. But even a mild version with unemployment rising from its current low level of 4.1%, while inflation stayed stuck above the Fed's 2% target would pose a challenge for the central bank. One development likely to unnerve Fed officials is the sharp jump in …

Trump’s tariffs are inflicting serious economic damage and reigniting inflation, OECD says
1 week, 4 days ago

Trump’s tariffs are inflicting serious economic damage and reigniting inflation, OECD says

CNN  

CNN — President Donald Trump’s tariff policies are slowing economic growth in the United States and around the world while sending prices higher again, creating a toxic stew for the global economy that could grow even worse if tensions escalate, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said Monday. The OECD report shows what US markets have been signaling for …

Key consumer sentiment gauge plunges amid concern over Trump trade wars
2 weeks ago

Key consumer sentiment gauge plunges amid concern over Trump trade wars

Politico  

The sentiment numbers are the latest sign of worry caused by Trump’s trade wars alongside sustained drops in the stock market as investors react to the fallout from higher tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada, and on steel and aluminum from U.S. allies. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismissed concern about the stock market, saying the administration is more concerned with …

Market strategist calls Trump tariffs 'trade barriers' that will lead to 'stagflation'
2 weeks ago

Market strategist calls Trump tariffs 'trade barriers' that will lead to 'stagflation'

Raw Story  

Ed Yardeni, whom CNBC calls "one of the biggest bulls on Wall Street," claimed President Donald Trump’s extensive tariffs are raising the risk of "stagflation." CNBC reported that Yardeni sent a note to clients Thursday, saying, “It has dawned on Wall Street that President Trump’s tariffs aren’t negotiating chips to help the U.S. lower tariffs around the world, promoting free …

Is Trump taking a ‘liquidationist’ approach to the economy?
2 weeks, 1 day ago

Is Trump taking a ‘liquidationist’ approach to the economy?

Live Mint  

During President Trump’s first term, stocks rode high on the belief that he would always pull back on policies that led to a selloff. Indeed, such views edge close to the “liquidationist" approach historically espoused by laissez-faire economists, and most infamously associated with former President Herbert Hoover’s Treasury secretary who advised him to let the economy fall. Trump and his …

US inflation cooled in February, but Trump’s tariff plans and trade war loom
2 weeks, 2 days ago

US inflation cooled in February, but Trump’s tariff plans and trade war loom

CNN  

CNN — Inflation slowed more than expected in February and cooled for the first time in four months, but that progress may be short lived as President Donald Trump ramps up his trade war, which threatens to increase prices for Americans. February’s inflation numbers came in better than expected thanks in part to two big — and very welcome — …

Economic slowdown fears grip US markets, Nasdaq sinks by 4%
2 weeks, 3 days ago

Economic slowdown fears grip US markets, Nasdaq sinks by 4%

Firstpost  

US stocks plunged on Monday as fears of an economic slowdown grew after President Donald Trump did not dismiss concerns that his tariffs could trigger a recession. Reuters US stocks tumbled on Monday over growing fears of an economic slowdown after President Donald Trump did not rule out the possibility of his tariffs causing a recession. The Nasdaq dropped 4.0 …

Economic slowdown fears grip US markets, Nasdaq sinks by 4%
2 weeks, 3 days ago

Economic slowdown fears grip US markets, Nasdaq sinks by 4%

Firstpost  

US stocks plunged on Monday as fears of an economic slowdown grew after President Donald Trump did not dismiss concerns that his tariffs could trigger a recession. Reuters US stocks tumbled on Monday over growing fears of an economic slowdown after President Donald Trump did not rule out the possibility of his tariffs causing a recession. The Nasdaq dropped 4.0 …

Why Trump’s tariff chaos sparked stock market meltdown and recession fears
2 weeks, 3 days ago

Why Trump’s tariff chaos sparked stock market meltdown and recession fears

Al Jazeera  

Donald Trump has downplayed the stock market volatility which followed flip-flops over his trade policies. United States stock markets plummeted on Monday amid fears that President Donald Trump’s tariff policies might drive the world’s largest economy into recession. The market selloff comes as Trump’s back-and-forth tariff announcements have unnerved investors and stoked fears that the US economy could be headed …

Trump bump turns into Trump slump: 3 big reasons
2 weeks, 3 days ago

Trump bump turns into Trump slump: 3 big reasons

Firstpost  

US President Donald Trump won the election with the promise to end wars and Make America Great Again, but he appears to be driving the United States into stagflation and strategic blunders just weeks into the term US President Donald Trump’s honeymoon period has ended as his policies appear to be slumping the US economy and national standing. In the …

‘He Finally Shot the Hostage’: Trump’s Trade War Is a Brutal Reality Check
3 weeks, 3 days ago

‘He Finally Shot the Hostage’: Trump’s Trade War Is a Brutal Reality Check

Politico  

Everyone should have seen this coming. “He finally shot the hostage.” Trump’s move to shatter supply chains across North America is a stunning development, no matter how foreseeable, and it’s changing the U.S. outlook fast. Though Trump told reporters in early February that Americans could feel “some pain” from the trade wars, he and his advisers have argued tariffs aren’t …

'Recession is coming': Critics outraged as Trump vows steep tariffs imminent
3 weeks, 3 days ago

'Recession is coming': Critics outraged as Trump vows steep tariffs imminent

Raw Story  

President Donald Trump says he's done delaying the massive tariffs he planned to enact on America's neighbors, telling reporters Monday: "No room left for Mexico or for Canada. "You can watch the stock market tank in the bottom corner of Fox's broadcast as Trump talks about tariffs," wrote independent journalist Aaron Rupar. "Trump just made a new announcement about tariffs …

America faces a Trumpian economic slowdown
3 weeks, 4 days ago

America faces a Trumpian economic slowdown

Live Mint  

“The golden age of America begins right now." In the six weeks since that chilly day, investors and economists have started to grapple with a less upbeat possibility: that his arrival in the White House is both causing and coinciding with a period of weakness for America’s economy. Even if Mr Trump again delays imposing levies on Canada and Mexico, …

If Trump wants to fix the inflation crisis, he has a funny way of showing it
1 month ago

If Trump wants to fix the inflation crisis, he has a funny way of showing it

CNN  

CNN — Inflation appeared nearly defeated just a few months ago, but price hikes started accelerating again, led in particular by rising egg prices and fuel costs. The survey found that Americans are losing confidence in the economy, driven primarily by worries over Trump’s tariffs potentially boosting inflation. A new CNN poll released last Thursday similarly showed pessimism on the …

'Not good': Ex-Trump official sounds alarm on ominous economic signals
1 month ago

'Not good': Ex-Trump official sounds alarm on ominous economic signals

Raw Story  

Former Donald Trump administration adviser and Fox News economic commentator Larry Kudlow delivered some ominous words for the president in a segment Friday, warning that key economic indicators signal stagflation could be brewing. President Donald Trump inherited a strong, if still slightly overheated, economy from former President Joe Biden, with jobs numbers hovering around full employment and inflation significantly down …

'America’s economic mood is souring — and Trump is getting the heat': CNN
1 month ago

'America’s economic mood is souring — and Trump is getting the heat': CNN

Raw Story  

Consumer sentiment numbers released on Friday show that consumer sentiment plunged over the last month, as prices on consumer staples such as eggs and coffee rose significantly. Or as CNN put it in its report on the latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, "America’s economic mood is now souring — and Trump is getting the heat for it." The …

US economy: Is stagflation making a comeback amid Trump turbulence?
1 month ago

US economy: Is stagflation making a comeback amid Trump turbulence?

Live Mint  

Might this be the year that stagflation returns to the US? It has been half a century: The last time the US economy had both excessively high inflation and unduly high unemployment was in the mid-1970s, with inflation rates reaching 12.2% in 1974 and unemployment at 8.5% in 1975. Kevin Hassett, one of Trump’s economic advisors, has suggested that the …

ANALYSIS-’Stagflation’ fears haunt US markets despite Trump’s pro-growth agenda
1 month, 1 week ago

ANALYSIS-’Stagflation’ fears haunt US markets despite Trump’s pro-growth agenda

Live Mint  

* Trump's tariffs fuel low growth fears on top of inflation * Fund managers' stagflation expectations rise, survey shows * Some remain optimistic tariff hit on growth would be temporary * Analysts warn about complacency towards Trump policies By Suzanne McGee, Davide Barbuscia Feb 20 - Stubborn inflation and President Donald Trump's hard-line trade policies have rekindled fears of stagflation, …

'Scary place': Renowned economist warns Trump's policies put US on course for ruin
1 month, 1 week ago

'Scary place': Renowned economist warns Trump's policies put US on course for ruin

Raw Story  

Renowned Nobel laureate economist Joseph Stiglitz expressed alarm that President Donald Trump's policies, particularly on trade, put the United States on course for a decline in global investment — and perhaps something much more severe, The Guardian reported Monday. Stiglitz, who authored "The Price of Inequality," has long been concerned even before Trump's election that U.S. politics were heading for …

Charting the Global Economy: US Inflation Picks Up Ahead of Tariffs
1 month, 1 week ago

Charting the Global Economy: US Inflation Picks Up Ahead of Tariffs

Live Mint  

-- US inflation picked up broadly at the start of the year, further diminishing chances the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates anytime soon. World Economists are warning the next stage of Donald Trump’s trade war would open new fronts across Asia, with India and Thailand among the nations most exposed to risks from the US president’s vow to impose …

Stock market today: Wall Street takes Trump's latest tariff threats in stride, and indexes rise
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Stock market today: Wall Street takes Trump's latest tariff threats in stride, and indexes rise

Associated Press  

NEW YORK — U.S. stocks rose Monday as Wall Street took President Donald Trump’s latest threat on tariffs in stride. AP AUDIO: Stock market today: Wall Street takes Trump’s latest tariff threats in stride, and indexes rise Tariff threats aren’t taking a toll on stocks. Those will likely affect Wall Street by cleaving winning industries from losing ones, but they …

What Trump's trade war means for YOU: As tariffs throw markets into turmoil, what investors should do
1 month, 3 weeks ago

What Trump's trade war means for YOU: As tariffs throw markets into turmoil, what investors should do

Daily Mail  

The ink was barely dry on Rachel Reeves’s Spring Statement before her plans to balance the nation’s books were effectively blown out of the water. US President Donald Trump last night announced he was slapping a ‘permanent’ 25pc tariff on foreign-made cars, fuelling fears that an all-out global trade war will wipe out what little headroom the Chancellor had to …

The US economy just had another robust year
1 month, 4 weeks ago

The US economy just had another robust year

CNN  

Washington CNN — Another year of robust economic growth is in the books, underscoring how the Biden administration handed President Donald Trump what many consider a solid economy. “The US consumer has been unstoppable, supported by wealth creation, a strong labor market, and lending.” The latest GDP report comes on the heels of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision announced …

'Flashing a warning': Economist says Trump's plans leading to 'a terrible outcome'
1 month, 3 weeks ago

'Flashing a warning': Economist says Trump's plans leading to 'a terrible outcome'

Raw Story  

Most of Donald Trump's economic policies – such as tariffs, additional fiscal stimulus and mass deportations – are expected to add to inflation, according to a new analysis. The inflation rate has declined rapidly since peaking at 9.1 percent in the summer of 2022 but remains above the Federal Reserve’s target at 2.9 percent, and comments from the central bank's …

Trump’s economic team studies gradual tariff hikes to boost negotiating leverage and avoid inflation spike
2 months, 1 week ago

Trump’s economic team studies gradual tariff hikes to boost negotiating leverage and avoid inflation spike

Live Mint  

Members of President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming economic team are discussing slowly ramping up tariffs month by month, a gradual approach aimed at boosting negotiating leverage while helping avoid a spike in inflation, according to people familiar with the matter. One idea involves a schedule of graduated tariffs increasing by about 2% to 5% a month, and would rely on executive …

Economists are worried Trump will cause 'rising inflation and slowing growth': report
2 months, 3 weeks ago

Economists are worried Trump will cause 'rising inflation and slowing growth': report

Raw Story  

President Joe Biden oversaw the United States economy's recovery from the global pandemic, which included lowering unemployment and a slow reduction in inflation. Fortune reported that more than 200 economists were questioned about the future of the U.S., and many confessed a fear of "rising inflation and slowing growth." In their report, the Financial Times and the University of Chicago …

Americans may have to actually brace for stagflation with Trump tariffs
3 months, 1 week ago

Americans may have to actually brace for stagflation with Trump tariffs

CNN  

New York CNN — Jamie Dimon, head of America’s largest bank, JPMorgan Chase — and commonly referred to as the ‘president of Wall Street’ — spent much of this past year warning that there’s an elevated risk that the US experiences 1970s-esque stagflation, which is when economic growth stagnates while inflation heats up. His prediction, however, has been pooh-poohed by …

Trump has a problem: America's economy is growing but so is its inflation
3 months, 3 weeks ago

Trump has a problem: America's economy is growing but so is its inflation

Firstpost  

Even as the US economy grew by 2.8% in the third quarter, the inflation also grew by 1.9%, complicating the economic outlook that President-elect Donald Trump will inherit in January US President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to fix the United States. Inflation rises by 1.9% — complicating picture for Trump Even as the US economy grew 2.8 per cent year-on-year …

The Trump inflation shock could be worse than the last inflation crisis, Larry Summers warns
4 months, 2 weeks ago

The Trump inflation shock could be worse than the last inflation crisis, Larry Summers warns

CNN  

New York CNN — Larry Summers has some unsolicited advice for President-elect Donald Trump: Don’t keep your campaign promises — unless you want to send prices skyrocketing once again. “In his first term, President Trump instituted tariffs against China that created jobs, spurred investment, and resulted in no inflation,” Karoline Leavitt, a Trump transition spokesperson, said in a statement. “President …

Markets hail Trump’s economics
4 months, 2 weeks ago

Markets hail Trump’s economics

Live Mint  

Twenty-three Nobel laureates in economics warned two weeks ago that Donald Trump’s economic agenda would be disastrous for the U.S. Mr. Trump’s election drove the largest single-day increase in the U.S. dollar in more than two years, and third largest in the last decade. The combination of the steepening yield curve, stable inflation expectations and the rise in stocks indicates …

Stagflation Is the Dreaded Word No One Dared Speak at Davos
2 years, 2 months ago

Stagflation Is the Dreaded Word No One Dared Speak at Davos

Bloomberg  

The outlook among global leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in mid-January ranged from cautiously optimistic to unapologetically positive. Attendees interviewed by Bloomberg News during the proceedings talked about the reopening of China, the warmer-than-expected winter, which has helped keep energy prices down, and the expected surge in other commodity prices that hasn’t occurred. But the positive …

Worry about stagflation, a flashback to ‘70s, begins to grow
2 years, 9 months ago

Worry about stagflation, a flashback to ‘70s, begins to grow

Associated Press  

It was the dreaded “S word” of the 1970s. For Americans of a certain age, it conjures memories of painfully long lines at gas stations, shuttered factories and President Gerald Ford’s much-ridiculed “Whip Inflation Now” buttons. “This time, it is facing high inflation and slow growth at the same time.. It’s a phenomenon — stagflation — that the world has …

Explained | How are fears of stagflation impacting markets?
2 years, 9 months ago

Explained | How are fears of stagflation impacting markets?

The Hindu  

The story so far: Authorities worldwide, particularly central bankers, are feverishly trying to formulate the appropriate set of policies to ensure that inflation, currently running at multi-decade highs in some advanced economies including the U.S., is cooled without triggering a recession. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told The New York Timeslast month that he foresaw a period in the …

Hoping to beat back inflation, Fed prepares to raise interest rates in March
3 years, 2 months ago

Hoping to beat back inflation, Fed prepares to raise interest rates in March

LA Times  

After downplaying the threat of inflation through most of last year, the Federal Reserve struck a more hawkish tone Wednesday as it signaled readiness to raise interest rates in March and take other aggressive actions to combat high prices endangering the nation’s economic health. With decades-high inflation strapping workers and unsettling financial markets, Fed officials in recent days have been …

Stocks week ahead: Stagflation rocked the economy before. Is it coming back?
3 years, 6 months ago

Stocks week ahead: Stagflation rocked the economy before. Is it coming back?

CNN  

A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. “Although not our base case, stagflation has often been accompanied by oil shocks, and with crude prices recently jumping on supply chain disruptions, the risk of oil shocks has increased,” Kwon and Subramanian said. “Unlike the rest of our community, these people” — those on the …

White House: Markets showing little worry about inflation
3 years, 9 months ago

White House: Markets showing little worry about inflation

Associated Press  

The White House believes it has an ally in the bond markets to make the case that inflation isn’t an economic threat. Republican lawmakers have interpreted the jump in consumer and producer prices as a sign that inflation is spiking at levels that will hurt growth, and they say President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package has overcooked the …

Global economy seen sliding towards weakest growth in a decade: OECD
5 years, 6 months ago

Global economy seen sliding towards weakest growth in a decade: OECD

Live Mint  

Intensifying trade conflicts have sent global growth momentum tumbling toward lows last seen during the financial crisis, and governments are not doing enough to prevent long-term damage, the OECD said in its latest outlook. “Governments should absolutely take advantage of low rates to invest in the future now so that this sluggish growth doesn’t become the new normal.” The OECD …

Trump may kill the global recovery
6 years, 8 months ago

Trump may kill the global recovery

Live Mint  

How does the current global economic outlook compare to that of a year ago? Stronger growth with inflation still below target allowed unconventional monetary policies either to remain in full force, as in the eurozone and Japan, or to be rolled back very gradually, as in the US. At the same time, the prospect of higher inflation has led even …

Global stagflation
16 years, 11 months ago

Global stagflation

The Hindu  

The entire world economy seems to be heading towards stagflation, which is characterised by a prolonged combination of stagnant incomes and rising prices. This combination of stagnant or falling output and rising prices is why more and more economists and analysts in the U.S. have started using the dreaded S-word stagflation to forecast the immediate future of the U.S. economy …

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