How will inflation affect Labour’s plans for the economy?
The IndependentIt’s early days, obviously, but one of the factors that helps any government “deliver” and win re-election is a healthy economy. Having repeatedly stated that they inherited the worst economic situation since the war – albeit a highly tendentious claim – Labour undoubtedly faces a challenge in achieving the electorally magical combination of low inflation, high employment, rising living standards, healthy public finances, and moderate interest rates. It looks like it’s going to be a tight, rather deflationary Budget, which will be excellent news for interest rates but rather less encouraging for growth in the coming months. The good news is that lower mortgage rates should help household budgets as mortgages are rolled over; and the proposed reforms to planning and the housing market might also restrain the rise in private rental prices, which went up across the UK by 8.4 per cent in the year to August. If things go well, then the Bank rate might be around 3 per cent by this time next year, a vindication of Reeves’s tough approach.