The charts that show why Reeves has condemned Britain to a low-growth future
1 month, 3 weeks ago

The charts that show why Reeves has condemned Britain to a low-growth future

The Telegraph  

Ms Reeves’s decision to ramp up employers’ National Insurance will not help, as it imposes costs on businesses – which will be less likely to hire workers as a result – and on staff, who can expect smaller wage increases as a result of the policy. The OBR said higher pay growth in the near term would be followed by a dip as employers “pass on the NICs rise, rebuild profit margins, and the temporary boost to demand fades”. Compared with the OBR’s March forecast, real household disposable income per person – a proxy for living standards – is forecast to be lower by the start of 2029 “as real wage growth slows and taxes increase”. The OBR blamed “five trends” for the substantial dip during the middle of the decade, including “a substantial part of the employer NICs increase being passed onto real wages; other tax rises in the Budget; non-labour income easing back to medium-term trends, and a rising state pension age dragging on benefit payments.” The state pension will rise by 4.1pc next April, matching growth in average earnings – under the triple lock, the pension increases by the highest of workers’ pay, inflation or 2.5pc. It expects GDP per capita – often used as a rough guide to living standards – to grow by 1.4pc next year, slowing to around 1pc by the end of the decade.

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