TCI: ICICI Securities initiates coverage with ‘buy’, sees 20% upside in next 12 months – here’s why
4 months, 3 weeks ago

TCI: ICICI Securities initiates coverage with ‘buy’, sees 20% upside in next 12 months – here’s why

Live Mint  

Just around 6 percent away from record high, Transport Corporation of India is expected to see 20 percent upside in the next 12 months. "Key points: 1) In the process of refining freight mix in favour of higher-margin LTL business; 2) Capex in high-margin sea freight segment likely to improve overall margins; 3) Improving performance of JVs expected to result in further earnings improvement; and 4) Trading at relatively attractive valuation compared to peers," said the brokerage. Investment Rationale Margin Improvement in Store: Despite a projected decline in its seaways business, ICICI expects TCI's EBITDA margin to improve to 10.5 percent by FY26E, driven by a higher proportion of Less Than Truckload services in the surface division, which is expected to grow to 40 percent compared to 36 percent in FY24, and an increased focus on the supply chain business. Revenue and EPS Growth Outlook: ICICI forecasts a revenue CAGR of 10.8 percent YoY for TCI through to FY26, primarily driven by a 15 percent CAGR in the supply chain segment. Overall, the EBITDA margin is expected to remain stable at 10-10.5 percent, with any decline in the seaways segment being offset by slightly higher margins in the surface freight segment.

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