Opinion | Is India headed for its worst growth recession in a decade?
5 years, 4 months ago

Opinion | Is India headed for its worst growth recession in a decade?

Live Mint  

Much of the debate in recent months has been focused on the sharp loss of economic momentum in India. Economic growth fell sequentially in the three quarters from June 2008, or the second quarter of fiscal year 2009. Economic growth peaked in the three months ended March 2011, but slowed for five consecutive quarters after that. The most recent goods and services tax collections data is also an indication of weak domestic demand, though the fact that indirect tax collection is growing slower than nominal GDP growth could also mean that demand that shifted to the formal sector after demonetization is again moving back to the informal sector. Finally, one brutal fact: If the Indian economy continues to lose momentum over the next two quarters, then the country will be in its longest growth recession in a decade.

India Policy Growth Economic Growth Economic Demand Fiscal Quarters Recession  demand  worst  economic  policy  stimulus  fiscal  opinion  headed  quarters  slowdown  growth  india  recession  decade

History of this topic

India’s economy projected to grow 6.6% in 2025, driven by private demand, investment: UN
4 days, 15 hours ago

India’s economy projected to grow 6.6% in 2025, driven by private demand, investment: UN

Live Mint  

The Indian economy is projected to expand by 6.6 per cent in 2025, primarily supported by robust private consumption and investment, according to a United Nations report. It also said that the near-term outlook for South Asia is expected to remain robust, with growth projected at 5.7 per cent in 2025 and 6.0 per cent in 2026, “driven by strong …

India’s Growth Slowdown Meets Global Headwinds
4 days, 17 hours ago

India’s Growth Slowdown Meets Global Headwinds

The Hindu  

Published : Jan 10, 2025 18:40 IST - 5 MINS READ Reams of news space were occupied this week by the analysis of the growth snafu that India has hit. The first set of advance estimates for FY25 has pegged India’s real GDP growth at 6.4 per cent. It is also lower than the Reserve Bank of India’s current projection …

India’s economy projected to grow 6.6% in 2025, supported by strong private consumption, investment: UN
5 days ago

India’s economy projected to grow 6.6% in 2025, supported by strong private consumption, investment: UN

The Hindu  

The Indian economy is projected to expand by 6.6% in 2025, primarily supported by robust private consumption and investment, according to a United Nations report that said economic growth in South Asia is expected to remain robust this year mainly driven by the "strong performance" in India. The UN World Economic Situation and Prospects 2025, released in United Nations on …

Decoding India’s growth slowdown
Trending News
5 days, 3 hours ago

Decoding India’s growth slowdown

The Hindu  

The first advance estimates of India’s Gross Domestic Product in 2024-25, released by the National Statistics Office this week, shows a decline in the real GDP growth rate to 6.4% from 8.2% registered in 2023-24. The annual growth rates of real gross fixed capital formation in public and private sectors During the 10 years of the United Progressive Alliance rule, …

​Growth chill: On the economy
6 days, 11 hours ago

​Growth chill: On the economy

The Hindu  

The National Statistics Office has confirmed emerging fears about the economy’s evidently sluggish trajectory through this year in its first Gross Domestic Product estimates for 2024-25. While the election-focused first quarter hit public capital spending, the second quarter was marred by weak demand and still underwhelming public capex, dragging GDP growth to a seven-quarter low of 5.4%. The NSO’s projection …

Risks to economy escalating in 2025, says SBICAPS
1 week ago

Risks to economy escalating in 2025, says SBICAPS

Live Mint  

New Delhi: The economic outlook for calendar year 2025 remains cautious, with many of the risks from the last year expected to escalate, leading to heightened uncertainty and volatility, according to SBICAPS. Fresh structural shifts, such as rising currency volatility and the diversification of global supply chains, are unfolding against a backdrop of ongoing trade wars, geopolitical upheavals, and political …

Watch: Indian economy: what to expect in 2025?
1 week, 4 days ago

Watch: Indian economy: what to expect in 2025?

The Hindu  

At the start of 2024, there was a lot of excitement about the Indian economy - the country was one of the fastest growing economies in the world and there was anticipation that India will become a $4 trillion economy in 2024-25 and become the world’s third-largest economy by 2027. However, the latest data from the National Statistics Office showed …

Is India's economy losing steam as 2025 dawns?
2 weeks, 1 day ago

Is India's economy losing steam as 2025 dawns?

New Indian Express  

As 2024 draws to a close, it's becoming evident that India's economic growth is stuck in a game of two halves. Like the Earth's rotation that lights up only half the planet, leaving the other half in darkness, the country's economy too is rocking on its axis, lighting up some sectors, but leaving others behind. In short, as the economy …

2024 yearender: A year marred by great economic uncertainties
2 weeks, 1 day ago

2024 yearender: A year marred by great economic uncertainties

Hindustan Times  

Donald Trump will take charge as the US President for the second time on January 20, 2025. In a move that could have far-reaching consequences for the world economy, Trump has promised imposition of large-scale tariffs as a bargaining tool to buttress US’s economic dominance and well-being vis-à-vis other countries. Should Trump enter into an open conflict with the US …

India’s high-frequency indicators recovering in Q3, to lift GDP in H2: RBI December Bulletin
Trending News
3 weeks ago

India’s high-frequency indicators recovering in Q3, to lift GDP in H2: RBI December Bulletin

Live Mint  

Mumbai: Several high-frequency indicators for the third quarter of the current financial year show that the Indian economy is recovering from the slowdown in momentum witnessed in the previous three months ended September, according to a paper in the Reserve Bank of India’s monthly bulletin. The recovery in Q3 of FY25 is being driven by strong festival activity and sustained …

How the Indian economy fared in 2024, in 9 charts
3 weeks, 1 day ago

How the Indian economy fared in 2024, in 9 charts

Live Mint  

The year 2024 kept governments across the world on tenterhooks, with more than 60 countries, including India, holding elections, injecting uncertainty about how the outcomes would shape future fiscal, monetary, and trade policies. The Indian economy faced several challenges in 2024, from slowing growth to stubborn inflation to risks associated with personal loan growth. While the fight against inflation made …

Will India's economic growth pick up pace? Nirmala Sitharaman answers
4 weeks, 1 day ago

Will India's economic growth pick up pace? Nirmala Sitharaman answers

India Today  

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday said that India’s economy will see healthy growth in the coming quarters despite the lower-than-expected GDP numbers for the second quarter. India’s GDP growth for the July-September quarter fell sharply to 5.4% from 6.7% in the previous quarter, marking an 18-month low, as per data released by the National Statistics Office in November. However, …

Govt confident of economic rebound despite global challenges, says Piyush Goyal
1 month ago

Govt confident of economic rebound despite global challenges, says Piyush Goyal

Live Mint  

New Delhi: Despite global uncertainties owing to supply-chain disturbances following the Red Sea crisis, union commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal has said he was confident that India's economic growth would be back on track by the end of the fiscal year. Speaking at Times Network’s India Economic Conclave on Thursday, Goyal said, "There was an election in the first …

Indian economy set for resilient growth in 2025; urban consumption, infra investment to be key: S&P
1 month ago

Indian economy set for resilient growth in 2025; urban consumption, infra investment to be key: S&P

Firstpost  

In its India outlook for 2025, S&P also retained India’s growth forecast for current fiscal at 6.8 per cent, followed by 6.9 per cent growth in 2025-26 S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday said the Indian economy is set for “resilient growth” in 2025 and projected inflation pressure to recede which will lead to “modest” easing of the monetary policy by …

Vivek Kaul: India’s GDP growth slump holds lessons in forecasting
1 month ago

Vivek Kaul: India’s GDP growth slump holds lessons in forecasting

Live Mint  

India’s growth in gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, for the period July to September slowed to a seven-quarter low of 5.4%. Or as Zahaan Bharmal writes in The Art of Physics: Eight Elegant Ideas to Make Sense of Everything: “Blithe predictions… cannot be made in a complex system where the impossibility of accurate prediction is inbuilt." Data from the …

India’s GDP growth shocker: Bad news can be good too
1 month, 1 week ago

India’s GDP growth shocker: Bad news can be good too

Live Mint  

India’s growth in gross domestic product of 5.4% in the three months ended 30 September, or the second quarter of 2024-25, was a shocker. It’s the lowest level seen since the third quarter of 2022-23 and a sharp drop from 8.1% growth in the same period last year and also from 6.7% in the first quarter of 2024-25. Given the …

India’s growth slowdown: Yes, RBI does need to respond
1 month, 1 week ago

India’s growth slowdown: Yes, RBI does need to respond

Live Mint  

The Indian economy is in the midst of a cyclical slowdown. The Indian government is still in the process of getting public finances back into shape after the pandemic shock, when it had to support economic activity even as tax collections collapsed. There is a compelling case for the monetary policy committee, which is meeting this week to decide its …

GDP numbers a cause for worry
1 month, 1 week ago

GDP numbers a cause for worry

Hindustan Times  

That the Indian economy would lose some momentum as the pent-up demand from the pandemic was exhausted was a given. The September quarter headline GDP growth of 5.4% was more than a percentage point lower than what private and the Reserve Bank of India forecasts expected. The Indian economy’s tepid growth performance is a result of weak animal spirits triggering …

At the root of slowdown: It’s politics, stupid
1 month, 2 weeks ago

At the root of slowdown: It’s politics, stupid

New Indian Express  

The murmurs and fears echoing in living rooms, bazaars and C-suites for weeks and months have come home to roost. On Friday, the ministry of statistics informed India that GDP growth in the July-September quarter, at 5.4 percent, has fallen from 8.1 percent in the same period last year—the slowest in nearly two years. The reality of a slowdown has …

India’s GDP growth slows to 5.4% in Q2, below RBI estimate: Govt data
1 month, 2 weeks ago

India’s GDP growth slows to 5.4% in Q2, below RBI estimate: Govt data

Hindustan Times  

NEW DELHI: India’s growth of gross domestic product slowed to a seven-quarter low during July-September quarter of 2024-25, data released by the ministry of statistics and programme implementation showed. India remains the fastest-growing major economy as China’s GDP growth in the July-September quarter this year was 4.6%. The economy expanded 5.4% in the quarter ending September 2024 from a year …

India’s GDP growth: The first half faltered, but economy seen rebounding in the second
Trending News
1 month, 2 weeks ago

India’s GDP growth: The first half faltered, but economy seen rebounding in the second

Live Mint  

Two consecutive quarters of disappointing economic growth have left economists pinning their hopes on a rebound in the second half of the fiscal year. Some economists, however, expect India’s FY25 GDP growth to be lower than the Reserve Bank of India’s 7.2% outlook because of the disappointing economic growth in the first two quarters of the fiscal year. “Government will …

India’s GDP growth likely moderated to 6.5% in Q2, says Icra
Trending News
1 month, 3 weeks ago

India’s GDP growth likely moderated to 6.5% in Q2, says Icra

Live Mint  

New Delhi: India’s GDP growth is likely to have slowed marginally to 6.5% in the second quarter of FY2025 from 6.7% in the previous quarter, primarily due to heavy rainfall, weak corporate margins, and subdued exports, according to rating agency Icra. While government capital expenditure and healthy kharif sowing provided a lift, their impact was offset by disruptions caused by …

Indian Economy to Grow 7.2 Percent in 2024, Moody’s Forecasts
1 month, 4 weeks ago

Indian Economy to Grow 7.2 Percent in 2024, Moody’s Forecasts

Deccan Chronicle  

New Delhi: Global rating agency Moody’s Ratings on Friday said that the Indian economy is in a sweet spot and projected a 7.2 per cent gross domestic product or GDP growth for India in 2024 with the mix of solid growth and moderating inflation. “Although the central bank shifted its monetary policy stance to neutral while keeping the repo rate …

S&P Foresees Steady 6.5-7 Percent Growth for India Until 2027
2 months ago

S&P Foresees Steady 6.5-7 Percent Growth for India Until 2027

Deccan Chronicle  

New Delhi: S&P Global Ratings on Thursday projected the Indian economy to grow between 6.5-7 per cent annually in the three fiscal years till March 2027 as infrastructure spending and private consumption drive growth momentum. “Good economic growth prospects will continue to support banks' asset quality, while healthy corporate balance sheets, tighter underwriting standards and improved risk management practices will …

IMF Sees India's Economic Growth and Outlook as Stable
2 months, 3 weeks ago

IMF Sees India's Economic Growth and Outlook as Stable

New Indian Express  

India remains the world's fastest-growing economy, with inflation expected to decline to 4.4% in FY24-25. IMF Director Krishna Srinivasan highlights the country's strong macroeconomic fundamentals, including a large and growing population, favourable harvests, and a stable fiscal situation. Srinivasan suggests that the country focus on creating jobs, removing trade restrictions, and investing in infrastructure and education to strengthen its economy …

India's Growth Outlook: A Beacon of Stability Despite Temporary Slowdown
2 months, 3 weeks ago

India's Growth Outlook: A Beacon of Stability Despite Temporary Slowdown

Deccan Chronicle  

India's growth outlook remains steady despite a temporary slowdown in momentum in the second quarter of 2024-25. The country's aggregate demand is expected to shrug off the slowdown due to the pick-up in festival demand and consumer confidence. Domestic manufacturing and services PMI have shown signs of improvement, while rural demand is expected to get a boost from the improved …

India to Drive 20% of Global Economic Growth in Next Decade: G20 Sherpa Amitabh Kant
4 months ago

India to Drive 20% of Global Economic Growth in Next Decade: G20 Sherpa Amitabh Kant

News 18  

India will be driving 20 per cent of the world’s economic growth in the next decade as it continues its march to become the third largest economy globally, according to G20 Sherpa Amitabh Kant. The country will be driving 20 per cent of the world’s economic growth in the next decade, he added. “If India is to grow at 9-10 …

IMF says India's GDP growth to moderate to 7% in 2024 and 6.5% in 2025
6 months, 3 weeks ago

IMF says India's GDP growth to moderate to 7% in 2024 and 6.5% in 2025

Times of India  

NEW DELHI: The International Monetary Fund has forecast that India's GDP is likely to grow to moderate from 8.2% in 2023 to 7% in 2024 and 6.5% in 2025. "In India, the outlook is for GDP growth to moderate from 8.2% in 2023 to 7% in 2024 and 6.5% in 2025, because pent-up demand accumulated during the pandemic has been …

India to remain fastest growing Asia-Pacific economy in 2024, predicts Moody's
7 months ago

India to remain fastest growing Asia-Pacific economy in 2024, predicts Moody's

India TV News  

Moody's latest Ratings revealed that India is poised to maintain its position as the Asia-Pacific region's top-performing economy in 2024, continuing the robust growth driven by domestic factors seen last year. India to remain fastest growing economy: World Bank Earlier this week, a Work Bank report stated that India will remain the fastest-growing major economy recording a steady growth of …

India may grow 6.7% on average from FY25-FY27: World Bank
7 months ago

India may grow 6.7% on average from FY25-FY27: World Bank

Hindustan Times  

India will remain the fastest-growing major economy recording a steady growth of 6.7 per cent in the next three years including the current financial year, said a world bank report released on Tuesday. In India, growth is estimated to have picked up to 8.2 per cent in fiscal year 2023/24 -- 1.9 percentage points higher than estimated in January, according …

India's economy grows 7.8 per cent in March quarter, annual growth rate hits 8.2 per cent
7 months, 2 weeks ago

India's economy grows 7.8 per cent in March quarter, annual growth rate hits 8.2 per cent

India TV News  

India's Gross Domestic Product demonstrated robust growth in the January–March 2024 quarter, exceeding analysts' expectations, as per the latest official data released on Friday, May 31. For the full financial year 2023–24, India's GDP growth rate stood at an impressive 8.2 percent, up from 7 percent in FY23, according to an official statement. Analysts had anticipated slower GDP growth for …

India's 2024 economic growth projection revised upwards by U.N. to nearly 7%
7 months, 4 weeks ago

India's 2024 economic growth projection revised upwards by U.N. to nearly 7%

The Hindu  

The United Nations has revised upwards India’s growth projections for 2024, with the country’s economy now forecast to expand by close to 7% this year, mainly driven by strong public investment and resilient private consumption. The World Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-2024, released Thursday, said, “India’s economy is forecast to expand by 6.9% in 2024 and 6.6% in …

Indian economy projected to grow 6.5% in 2024: UNCTAD
8 months, 4 weeks ago

Indian economy projected to grow 6.5% in 2024: UNCTAD

The Hindu  

India’s economy is projected to grow by 6.5% in 2024, according to a report by the UN which noted that multinationals extending their manufacturing processes into the country to diversify their supply chains will have a positive impact on Indian exports. “The expansion in 2023 was driven by strong public investment outlays as well as the vitality of the services …

Risky premise: On Asian Development Bank forecast, India’s GDP growth
9 months ago

Risky premise: On Asian Development Bank forecast, India’s GDP growth

The Hindu  

The Asian Development Bank on Thursday raised its forecast for India’s GDP growth in the current fiscal year ending on March 31, 2025, to 7%, from 6.7% earlier, citing robust public and private investment as well as expectations of a gradual improvement in consumer demand as the rural economy recovers. The ADB’s latest growth forecast for India’s GDP is, however, …

India's GDP to grow 6.1% in 2024: Moody's Analytics
9 months ago

India's GDP to grow 6.1% in 2024: Moody's Analytics

The Hindu  

Moody's Analytics on April 12 projected India's economy to expand 6.1% in 2024, lower than 7.7% growth clocked in 2023. We expect India’s GDP to grow 6.1% in 2024 after 7.7% last year," Moody's Analytics said. Moody's Analytics said looking at the GDP relative to its trajectory prior to the pandemic shows that India and Southeast Asia have seen some …

Indian economy to grow at 7.5 per cent in 2024, projects World Bank
9 months, 1 week ago

Indian economy to grow at 7.5 per cent in 2024, projects World Bank

India TV News  

The Indian economy will grow at 7.5 per cent in 2024, according to latest estimates by the World Bank. It raised India's economic growth forecast by 1.2 per cent to 7.5 per cent for 2023-24, on the back of robust activity in services and industry in its latest update for South Asia. The increase in the projected growth rate for …

On-target growth: 8% plus in 2023-24?
9 months, 2 weeks ago

On-target growth: 8% plus in 2023-24?

Live Mint  

Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman has hinted that India’s economy will see gross domestic product expand 8% or more in the three months ended 31 March. “Hopefully, the fourth quarter… will also have 8% or above 8%, resulting in 2023-24 having an average growth in GDP of 8% or over 8%," she said at a Mint summit on Saturday. Further, for …

India to be fastest growing economy among G-20 nations in 2024
9 months, 2 weeks ago

India to be fastest growing economy among G-20 nations in 2024

Op India  

India will be the fastest growing economy among the G-20 nations in 2024. In the previous three quarters, India’s economy expanded at 7.8 per cent in Q1, 7.6 per cent in Q2 and 8.4 per cent in Q3. The most recent upgrade came from Goldman Sachs, which has raised India’s 2024 growth projections to 6.6 per cent, a 10 basis …

India’s Q3 GDP bucks all estimates at 8.4% growth
10 months, 2 weeks ago

India’s Q3 GDP bucks all estimates at 8.4% growth

Hindustan Times  

The Indian economy continued to outperform, with GDP growth in the quarter ending December coming in at 8.4%, beating analyst estimates by around 180 basis points or 1.8 percentage points, and the government now expects the economy to grow by 7.6% in 2023-24, up from the 7.3% projected in January. Given the fact that GDP numbers for 2021-22 and 2022-23 …

India's GDP grew by 8.4 per cent in December quarter, surpassing expectations
10 months, 2 weeks ago

India's GDP grew by 8.4 per cent in December quarter, surpassing expectations

Hindustan Times  

Indian economy grew by 8.4 per cent in October-December 2023 against 4.3 per cent a year ago, government data showed on Thursday. India's GDP grows by 8.4 per cent in December quarter It had projected a growth of 7.3 per cent for the current fiscal in its first advance estimates released earlier in January 2024. Earlier in the day, the …

Indian economy to grow at 6.7% between fiscals 2024 to 2031: CRISIL
11 months, 1 week ago

Indian economy to grow at 6.7% between fiscals 2024 to 2031: CRISIL

The Hindu  

“The Indian economy is expected to grow at an average rate of 6.7% per annum until the end of the decade,” CRISIL said in its latest report. “This is a result of the investment-driven strategy of the government when the private sector was shy of making investments.” “The government increased capital expenditure significantly to support building expenditure and providing interest-free …

Vantage | What India must do to be a $7 trillion economy by 2030
11 months, 2 weeks ago

Vantage | What India must do to be a $7 trillion economy by 2030

Firstpost  

As the Indian government gears up to present the annual budget in what is considered the last one ahead of the general election, the focus is on maintaining stability with an interim budget. In the next three years, India aims to secure its position as the world’s third-largest economy, targeting a GDP of $5 trillion dollars. Projections for India’s growth …

India will be $7 trillion economy by 2030
11 months, 2 weeks ago

India will be $7 trillion economy by 2030

Firstpost  

India can aspire to become a $7 trillion economy by 2030, according to “The Indian Economy: A Review” written by V Anantha Nageswaran, Chief Economic Adviser to the government, and his team of economists. Meanwhile, as per National Statistical Office, the Indian economy is estimated to grow 7.3 per cent in 2023-24, while Reserve Bank of India projected a 7 …

Budget 2024: Can India become a $7 trillion economy by 2030?
11 months, 2 weeks ago

Budget 2024: Can India become a $7 trillion economy by 2030?

India Today  

A recent review report released by the government has estimated India's potential economic trajectory, aiming to hit the $7 trillion mark by 2030, ahead of the upcoming Interim Budget 2024-25. "India's unwavering commitment to ensuring steady economic growth is generating resources for investment needed for climate change adaptation, building resilience, and mitigating emissions,' the Finance Ministry report said. The report …

Indian economy likely to grow at 7% in FY25, says government
11 months, 2 weeks ago

Indian economy likely to grow at 7% in FY25, says government

India Today  

The Indian economy is poised for a growth rate of 7 per cent in the fiscal year 2024, with optimistic projections extending into FY25, according to a review of the Indian economy presented by the government. "The robustness seen in domestic demand, namely, private consumption and investment, traces its origin to the reforms and measures implemented by the government over …

Riding high on the growth momentum
1 year ago

Riding high on the growth momentum

Hindustan Times  

The Indian economy’s growth continues to surprise: The recently released advance estimate of Gross Domestic Product by the National Statistical Office showed that the economy will grow 7.3% in the current fiscal year 2023-24, slightly higher than last year’s 7.2% increase. India’s growth rate has kept a 7% handle for the last two years, but the world’s GDP growth has …

India to be the fastest-growing major economy this fiscal year: Reuters poll
1 year, 3 months ago

India to be the fastest-growing major economy this fiscal year: Reuters poll

Live Mint  

India’s gross domestic product is expected to grow 6.2% in the fiscal year ending in March 2024, being the fastest-growing major economy this fiscal year, according to a Reuters poll. Asia's third-largest economy is projected to grow 6.3% in FY25, the same as predicted last month, according to the median forecasts in the September 20-26 poll of 65 economists conducted …

India shows an impressive 7.8% economic growth in April-June quarter
1 year, 4 months ago

India shows an impressive 7.8% economic growth in April-June quarter

Associated Press  

NEW DELHI — India’s economy registered impressive growth of 7.8% in the first quarter of the current financial year, attributed to good performance by the agriculture and financial sectors, according to official data released on Thursday. India’s agriculture sector recorded growth of 3.5% in three months, up from 2.4% in the April-June quarter last year, according to the data released …

Growth in India is expected to slow to 6.3% in FY2023: World Bank
1 year, 7 months ago

Growth in India is expected to slow to 6.3% in FY2023: World Bank

The Hindu  

Growth in India is expected to slow to 6.3 % in FY 2023/24, a 0.3 percentage point downward revision from January, the World Bank said Tuesday but noted there is an unexpected resilience in private consumption and investment and robust growth in the services. “Growth in India is expected to slow further to 6.3 % in FY 2023/24, a 0.3 …

DC Edit | Economy in the right direction
1 year, 7 months ago

DC Edit | Economy in the right direction

Deccan Chronicle  

The report that India’s gross domestic product grew at 6.1 per cent during the January-March quarter of the fiscal year 2022-23 is yet another indicator that the country’s economy is healthy and headed in the right direction. This will push the overall growth rate to 7.2 per cent for the full year, April 2022 to March 2023. Electricity, gas, water …

Discover Related