Nature Studies: The Cumbrian floods were unprecedented, but not unpredictable
9 years, 3 months ago

Nature Studies: The Cumbrian floods were unprecedented, but not unpredictable

The Independent  

The best of Voices delivered to your inbox every week - from controversial columns to expert analysis Sign up for our free weekly Voices newsletter for expert opinion and columns Sign up to our free weekly Voices newsletter SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Two patterns concerning the likelihood of extreme rainfall and flooding in Britain as a result of climate change should by now have penetrated the minds of the public, though they have not yet done so: a pattern of predictions, and a pattern of events. Since 1999, scientific opinion has focused on heavier rain as our principal global warming impact, and a number of more detailed reports have fleshed this out and warned of the dangers, with two in particular very noteworthy: the Government Foresight report on Future Flooding of 2004, and the Climate Change Risk Assessment of 2012. For most of the second half of the 20th century there was little serious flooding in Britain, but beginning with the floods in the Midlands of Easter 1998, affecting towns from Northampton to Leamington Spa, which took everyone by surprise and in which five people died, there has been a staggering increase in unusually severe floods caused by extreme rainfall.

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