Experts unsure if El Nino will fade away
9 years ago

Experts unsure if El Nino will fade away

The Hindu  

A good number of meteorologists expect the monsoon in 2016 to be normal, though they are unclear whether the El Nino — a weather anomaly blamed for back-to-back droughts over India since 2014 — will completely fade away during the crucial rain months from June to September. Meteorologists, to whom The Hindu spoke to, said that “Nino neutral” conditions were likely to prevail during the crucial months of July and August that accounts for nearly 70 per cent of the monsoon rainfall. “Nino neutral can be a mixed bag for Indian monsoon,” said Sivananda Pai, chief meteorologist, IMD, “but generally an El Nino year is followed by normal monsoon.” To be sure, 2015 was only the fourth time in a 100-year span that El Nino-like conditions raged on for two consecutive years. Mr. Pai said key weather parameters needed to prepare the forecast would only be available by March-end and it was yet “too early” to decide how the monsoon would pan out.

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History of this topic

Normal monsoon likely as neutral El Nino forecast
2 weeks, 5 days ago

Normal monsoon likely as neutral El Nino forecast

New Indian Express  

NEW DELHI: India is likely to receive normal monsoon rains this year, experts said, as the World Meteorological Department forecast a higher possibility of neutral El Nino conditions during the upcoming season. El Nino refers to large-scale warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, while La Niña is the opposite. “It looks like India …

What is La Nina? The ocean cooling phenomenon that shapes India's climate
1 month, 2 weeks ago

What is La Nina? The ocean cooling phenomenon that shapes India's climate

India Today  

January 2025 was the warmest January on record, with an average surface air temperature of 13.2°C, 0.79°C above January's 1991-2020 average, according to Copernicus Climate Change Service, the European Union’s Earth Observation Programme. According to Noaa, La Nina is characterised by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, compared to El Nino, which is characterised by unusually warm ocean …

Extreme climate events impacting southwest coast, says study
Trending News
1 month, 3 weeks ago

Extreme climate events impacting southwest coast, says study

The Hindu  

India’s southwest coast has seen a steady rise in extreme rainfall events, increasing at a rate of 0.23 mm per season, according to a study by a team of researchers from the Cochin University of Science and Technology, European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites, and the UK Met Office. Titled ‘Deciphering the Relationship Between Moisture Flux and Monsoon …

Extreme climate events impacting southwest coast, says study
Trending News
1 month, 3 weeks ago

Extreme climate events impacting southwest coast, says study

The Hindu  

India’s southwest coast has seen a steady rise in extreme rainfall events, increasing at a rate of 0.23 mm per season, according to a study by a team of researchers from the Cochin University of Science and Technology, European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites, and the UK Met Office. Titled ‘Deciphering the Relationship Between Moisture Flux and Monsoon …

NOAA says La Nina ocean cooling has finally arrived, but it’s weak and may cause fewer problems
2 months, 2 weeks ago

NOAA says La Nina ocean cooling has finally arrived, but it’s weak and may cause fewer problems

Associated Press  

A long-awaited La Nina has finally appeared, but the periodic cooling of Pacific Ocean waters is weak and unlikely to cause as many weather problems as usual, meteorologists said Thursday. La Nina, the flip side of the better-known El Nino, is an irregular rising of unusually cold water in a key part of the central equatorial Pacific that changes weather …

First heatwave of 2025 engulfs Australia's south-east while monsoon and cyclones mysteriously missing in action
2 months, 3 weeks ago

First heatwave of 2025 engulfs Australia's south-east while monsoon and cyclones mysteriously missing in action

ABC  

2025 is opening with a broad heatwave stretching through the heart of Australia, continuing a pattern of exceptional heat which included the nation's hottest spring on record, and third hottest December on record. Temperatures across south-east states are predicted to soar up to 12 degrees Celsius above the January average this weekend, raising the risk of major fire outbreaks in …

After an eventful 2024, a harsh summer is on the cards for Kerala
2 months, 3 weeks ago

After an eventful 2024, a harsh summer is on the cards for Kerala

The Hindu  

The year 2024 witnessed many aberrations in the climate of Kerala. Extreme rainfall events The southwest monsoon, which provides close to 80% of the total rainfall in Kerala, was 13% deficient. According to the data available with the India Meteorological Department, there were four extreme rainfall events—a localised intense rainfall of more than 204 mm in 24 hours—in the State …

What is La Niña weather and how does it affect winters in India? Your guide
2 months, 3 weeks ago

What is La Niña weather and how does it affect winters in India? Your guide

Live Mint  

The World Meteorological Organization had earlier forecast a 55 percent chance of a La Niña onset this winter, and the India Meteorological Department, in an October statement, hinted at a harsh winter in North India. The IMD now expects a "higher chance" of La Niña conditions developing around early next year. Moreover, during a La Niña event, "normal to above-normal …

How does La Niña affect India’s climate? | Explained
3 months, 1 week ago

How does La Niña affect India’s climate? | Explained

The Hindu  

La Niña, a phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, occurs when the region of the Pacific Ocean between Indonesia and South America is cooler than usual. Climate change may increase the frequency and intensity of both La Niña and El Niño events, as rising sea and land temperatures disrupt the Pacific’s balance. Meteorology of a La Niña winter Cities …

‘Monsoon likely to extend, threatening ripe summer crops’
6 months, 3 weeks ago

‘Monsoon likely to extend, threatening ripe summer crops’

The Hindu  

Above-normal rainfall due to delayed withdrawal of the monsoon could damage India’s summer-sown crops like rice, cotton, soybean, corn, and pulses that are harvested from mid-September. The southwest monsoon is likely to be prolonged into late September this year due to a mid-month low-pressure system, two senior India Meteorological Department officials told Reuters. Monsoon rainfall in September and October could …

As La Niña strengthens, forecasters warn of a potential return to drought
7 months, 1 week ago

As La Niña strengthens, forecasters warn of a potential return to drought

LA Times  

As La Niña gathers strength in the tropical Pacific, forecasters are warning that the climate pattern could plunge California back into drought conditions in the months ahead. “Drought episodes do wane and redevelop, and a lot of that is associated with La Niña,” said Brad Pugh, a meteorologist with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Nathan Lenssen, a climate scientist at the …

Heavy rains ahead in second half of southwest monsoon, says IMD
7 months, 3 weeks ago

Heavy rains ahead in second half of southwest monsoon, says IMD

New Indian Express  

NEW DELHI: The Indian Meteorological Department has forecasted above-normal rainfall and temperatures during the second half of the southwest monsoon season 2024. During the August-September monsoon season, normal to above normal rainfall is most likely across the country except in many parts of northeast and adjoining areas of east India, Ladakh, Saurashtra and Kutch. According to IMD, normal to above …

INCOIS revises outlook, forecasts La Niña from September
7 months, 3 weeks ago

INCOIS revises outlook, forecasts La Niña from September

The Hindu  

Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services has revised the outlook for the probability of La Niña weather condition in Pacific Ocean stating that its evolution is significantly highfromSeptember with a possibility to peak in November and its influence may continue till December with a probability as high as 70%. La Niña usually aids rains in monsoon La Niña, which …

Subdued monsoon leaves climate agencies re-evaluating forecasts
8 months, 3 weeks ago

Subdued monsoon leaves climate agencies re-evaluating forecasts

New Indian Express  

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The subdued onset of the southwest monsoon has led several climate agencies to revise their rainfall expectations for Kerala in July. While the India Meteorological Department initially predicted above-normal rainfall for the month, other global weather agencies, including United States Climate Prediction Center and Europe’s ECMWF, have tempered their forecasts. The IMD’s latest Monsoon Mission Climate Forecasting System model …

‘Above normal’ rainfall expected in July: IMD
8 months, 3 weeks ago

‘Above normal’ rainfall expected in July: IMD

The Hindu  

Rainfall in July — typically the rainiest of the four monsoon months — is likely to be ‘above normal’ or greater than 106%, of the 28 cm that’s usual for July, the India Meteorological Department said on Monday. Historically, 20 of the 25 years since 1950 that have seen ‘below normal’ rains in June have resulted in ‘normal’ or ‘above …

Hyderabad-based INCOIS forecasts La Nina climate conditions from July to February
9 months, 2 weeks ago

Hyderabad-based INCOIS forecasts La Nina climate conditions from July to February

The Hindu  

Hyderabad-based Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services, under the Ministry of Earth Sciences has informed that the sea surface temperature anomaly signature in the eastern Pacific Ocean indicates a clear transition from El Nino to La Nina conditions. This bulletin outlines the current state of the Pacific Ocean and an outlook on the evolution of El Niño/La Nina conditions …

The End of El Niño Might Make the Weather Even More Extreme
9 months, 2 weeks ago

The End of El Niño Might Make the Weather Even More Extreme

Wired  

This story originally appeared on Grist and is part of the Climate Desk collaboration. The driving forces behind these projections include the alternating Pacific Ocean climate patterns known as El Niño and La Niña, which can create huge shifts in temperature and precipitation across the North and South American continents. After almost a year of El Niño, La Niña is …

Fading of El Nino to bring more rain
9 months, 2 weeks ago

Fading of El Nino to bring more rain

China Daily  

The decline of the periodic El Nino weather pattern, which brings warmer air over the Pacific Ocean, could lead to increased rainfall in large areas of China, meteorological experts said on Wednesday. We are expected to enter La Nina conditions later this summer," Jia Xiaolong, deputy director of China's National Climate Center, said at a news conference on Wednesday. Among …

Fading of El Nino to bring more rain
9 months, 2 weeks ago

Fading of El Nino to bring more rain

China Daily  

The decline of the periodic El Nino weather pattern, which brings warmer air over the Pacific Ocean, could lead to increased rainfall in large areas of China, meteorological experts said on Wednesday. We are expected to enter La Nina conditions later this summer," Jia Xiaolong, deputy director of China's National Climate Center, said at a news conference on Wednesday. Among …

La Nina may not lead to dip in temperatures soon: WMO
9 months, 3 weeks ago

La Nina may not lead to dip in temperatures soon: WMO

Hindustan Times  

La Nina will not lead to any major drop in land surface or sea surface temperatures during the next few months, World Meteorological Organisation’s long-range forecasts stated on Monday. La Niña refers to the large-scale cooling of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Seasonal forecasts for El Niño and La Niña and the anticipated …

Heatwave: Why is north and central India facing a severe heatwave? | Explained
9 months, 3 weeks ago

Heatwave: Why is north and central India facing a severe heatwave? | Explained

The Hindu  

The story so far: At least five people in Bihar’s Aurangabad city reportedly died on Thursday due to a sunstroke, news agency Reuters reported. Parts of north and central India continued to reel under a severe heatwave on Thursday, even as the India Meteorological Department predicted a gradual fall in temperature over the next five days. As per the IMD …

IMD predicts above normal rain in the country this monsoon
9 months, 3 weeks ago

IMD predicts above normal rain in the country this monsoon

India TV News  

The India Meteorological Department on Monday announced that the core monsoon zone, which encompasses the majority of rain-fed agricultural regions in the country, is forecasted to experience above-average rainfall this season. The states like Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal form the country's core monsoon zone where agriculture is primarily rain-fed. "India's monsoon …

Preparing for La Nina days
10 months, 1 week ago

Preparing for La Nina days

Hindustan Times  

Conditions have turned favourable for the La Nina phenomenon in the next few months, according to the Climate Prediction Centre of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the US. The rains — the India Meteorological Department has already predicted an above-normal monsoon with estimated rainfall of 106% of the long period average — would be a welcome relief for …

La Nina effect may lead to above-normal rains
10 months, 1 week ago

La Nina effect may lead to above-normal rains

Hindustan Times  

Conditions have turned favourable for the La Nina weather phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean to start in the next few months, the Climate Prediction Centre of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the US has said, which could lead to above average rainfall and floods in India during the monsoon that begins in June. La Nina generally tends to …

El Niño is on the way out after a record-breaking year of heat
10 months, 2 weeks ago

El Niño is on the way out after a record-breaking year of heat

NPR  

El Niño is on the way out after a record-breaking year of heat Enlarge this image toggle caption Angelos Tzortzinis/AFP via Getty Images Angelos Tzortzinis/AFP via Getty Images The climate pattern known as El Niño is heading for the exit, after a year when it helped drive global temperatures to new records. Sponsor Message Scientists say it's a stark warning …

India Will Get Above-Normal Rain This Monsoon: IMD
11 months, 1 week ago

India Will Get Above-Normal Rain This Monsoon: IMD

Deccan Chronicle  

New Delhi: India is poised to experience above-normal monsoon rains this season, the India Meteorological Department announced on Monday, calming fears that the intense summer heat and climatic changes could prolong the drought-like situation. Mohapatra said El Nino conditions, indicating a heating of the surface waters of the Pacific Ocean which adversely impacts the monsoon, were present and expected to …

India Likely to Experience Above-normal Rainfall this Monsoon: IMD
11 months, 1 week ago

India Likely to Experience Above-normal Rainfall this Monsoon: IMD

Deccan Chronicle  

New Delhi: India is likely to experience above-normal cumulative rainfall in the 2024 monsoon season with La Nina conditions likely to set in by August-September, the IMD has said on Monday.However, normal cumulative rainfall does not guarantee uniform temporal and spatial distribution of rain across the country, with climate change further increasing the variability of the rain-bearing system. Based on …

India to receive above-normal monsoon rains: IMD
11 months, 1 week ago

India to receive above-normal monsoon rains: IMD

The Hindu  

While several States reel under heatwaves, the India Meteorological Department has forecast a bountiful monsoon for the year. Last year, El Nino – a warming of the Central Pacific and usually linked to diminished rainfall in India – dented India’s monsoon by 6%. This year, the El Nino has not yet fully faded but is expected to do so by …

India likely to get normal monsoon after summer heat wave: Skymet
11 months, 2 weeks ago

India likely to get normal monsoon after summer heat wave: Skymet

The Hindu  

India is expected to see a normal monsoon in 2024, private weather forecasting agency Skymet said on Tuesday, promising some respite after a prediction of more-than-normal heat wave days in the summer preceding the June-September rainy season. Monsoon rains are expected to be 102% of the long-period average of 868.6 mm for the four-month period, Skymet said. The Indian Meteorological …

Monsoon likely to be ‘normal’ at about 102% of LPA: weather forecaster Skymet
11 months, 2 weeks ago

Monsoon likely to be ‘normal’ at about 102% of LPA: weather forecaster Skymet

Hindustan Times  

Monsoon, the lifeblood of India’s economy that delivers nearly 70% of the country’s rain, is likely to be “normal” at about 102% of long period average, with an error margin of +/-5%, private weather forecaster Skymet Weather said on Tuesday. Skymet said there was a 10% chance of excess rainfall, 20% of above normal, 45% of normal, 15% of below …

La Nina Likely To Return To India, Weather Agencies Predict Above-normal Rainfall During Monsoon
1 year ago

La Nina Likely To Return To India, Weather Agencies Predict Above-normal Rainfall During Monsoon

News 18  

Multiple weather agencies across the world have predicted the return of the La Nina during the monsoon period. Quoting the APCC predictions, an India Today report said India is likely to experience above-normal precipitation during its peak monsoon season from July to September. The weather agency has attributed the forecast change to the recent ENSO alert which predicts a smooth …

La Nina set to return, here's how it will impact monsoon in India
1 year ago

La Nina set to return, here's how it will impact monsoon in India

India Today  

The first monsoon prediction in India for this year has been made by the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center. In its July to September outlook, the APCC Climate Center stated, "Enhanced probability for above-normal precipitation is predicted for the region spanning eastern Africa to the Arabian Sea, India, the Bay of Bengal, and Indonesia, the Caribbean Sea, the tropical North …

World Meteorological Organisation confirms 2023 as ‘hottest year’
1 year ago

World Meteorological Organisation confirms 2023 as ‘hottest year’

The Hindu  

In line with a host of observations by climate agencies in the preceding three months, the World Meteorological Organisation has officially confirmed 2023 to be the hottest year on record. “Never have we been so close — albeit on a temporary basis at the moment — to the 1.5 degree Celsius lower limit of the Paris Agreement on climate change,” …

Strong El Nino receding; will monsoon be spared?
1 year ago

Strong El Nino receding; will monsoon be spared?

Hindustan Times  

The 2023-24 El Nino has peaked as one of the five strongest on record and will continue to impact global climate for at least half of this year despite a gradual weakening trend, the World Meteorological Organisation said on Tuesday. “There is about a 60% chance of El Nino persisting during March-May and a 80% chance of neutral conditions in …

More extreme rains likely in future due to warm temperatures: UoH study
1 year, 2 months ago

More extreme rains likely in future due to warm temperatures: UoH study

The Hindu  

In the future, there could be a decrease in cloud cover along with an increase in cloud water content, suggesting a shift in the cloud type to more convective clouds resulting in extreme rains. It means the Indian summer monsoon season is expected to have short bursts of convective rains leading to extreme rainfall events but drier conditions for most …

El Niño doesn't automatically mean it won't rain. Here's why it's been so wet and stormy for Australia's eastern states
1 year, 2 months ago

El Niño doesn't automatically mean it won't rain. Here's why it's been so wet and stormy for Australia's eastern states

ABC  

Australian weather has always been prone to extremes, which is why the sunburnt country is known for its drought and flooding rains. "So when we know it's going to be an El Niño it changes that probability so the segment for dry conditions on that chocolate wheel is much larger, and the wet is smaller." "When we talk about dry …

Record ocean and land heat continues in autumn as El Nino intensifies
1 year, 4 months ago

Record ocean and land heat continues in autumn as El Nino intensifies

Hindustan Times  

New Delhi: Ocean and land temperatures continued their record-breaking spree in October. Sea surface and land temperatures have been at record highs for seven and five months respectively, data maintained by University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer shows. Average sea surface temperatures were significantly high in October compared to the 1982-2011 mean and higher than any year since 1981 as per …

With El Nino around, the heat is on
1 year, 4 months ago

With El Nino around, the heat is on

Hindustan Times  

This year, forest fires turned swathes of hills and forests to ash in Europe, virtually wiping out an entire town as all past temperature records fell. El Nino conditions, a phenomenon where the equatorial Pacific waters become warmer than usual, are partly to blame for the trend, and it is just getting stronger, making next year likely to become even …

Warm November Ahead? As El Niño Gathers Strength, IMD Predicts Higher Than Normal Temperatures - News18
1 year, 4 months ago

Warm November Ahead? As El Niño Gathers Strength, IMD Predicts Higher Than Normal Temperatures - News18

News 18  

After a hotter-than-usual October, India may have a warm November ahead even as El Niño begins to gather strength over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. “We expect the severity of winter to be slightly less at night for Northwest India, especially due to cloudiness on most days, as the region is likely to witness good rains this month.” A natural climate …

IMD forecasts warmer November due to strengthening El Nino conditions
1 year, 4 months ago

IMD forecasts warmer November due to strengthening El Nino conditions

Live Mint  

Amid strengthening El Nino conditions, the India Meteorological Department on Tuesday predicted a warmer November. Over the Equatorial Pacific Ocean the EI Nino conditions are prevailing and over the Indian Ocean positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are prevailing. The weather department said that the latest global forecasts indicate that the El Nino conditions are likely to continue during the season …

A warm, wet El Niño winter is in store for California and much of the U.S.
1 year, 5 months ago

A warm, wet El Niño winter is in store for California and much of the U.S.

LA Times  

After a blistering summer of record heat, raging wildfires and unpredictable storms, federal scientists on Thursday said a warm, wet winter driven by El Niño is in store for California and much of the rest of the country. “The anticipated strong El Niño is the predominant climate factor driving the U.S. winter outlook this year,” said Jon Gottschalck, chief of …

El Niño system may affect upcoming winter season in Maha
1 year, 5 months ago

El Niño system may affect upcoming winter season in Maha

Hindustan Times  

PUNE: As El Niño is still in its active phase, it is likely to have an impact on the upcoming winter season, experts have noted, adding that El Niño can contribute to an increase in temperature. However, how significant the temperature rise will be is yet to be ascertained, the researchers said Anupam Kashyapi, head of the weather forecasting division, …

Capturing the monsoon: its variance and the message
1 year, 5 months ago

Capturing the monsoon: its variance and the message

The Hindu  

For the first time since 2018, India has reported a deficit monsoon. From June to September this year, India received 82 cm of rainfall, nearly 6% lower than the 89 cm that is considered ‘normal’. Between 2019 and 2022, the Indian monsoon was significantly impacted by the converse phenomenon – a cooling La Niña — that sometimes is associated with …

September rainfall washes off India’s drought fears
1 year, 5 months ago

September rainfall washes off India’s drought fears

The Hindu  

Despite the driest August in a century, India has dodged a drought this year, thanks to unexpectedly heavy rains in September. Rainfall which reaches 96% to 104% of the long term average is considered ‘normal.’ The IMD on Saturday also forecast a ‘normal’ north-east monsoon from October to December, and ‘normal to above-normal rainfall’ over large parts of north-west India …

Ready for round two? El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole to deliver more spring heat
1 year, 6 months ago

Ready for round two? El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole to deliver more spring heat

ABC  

Weather has dominated the headlines this week – an extraordinary period of September heat, and the official declaration of two major climate drivers. It was no coincidence record temperatures coincided with the arrival of El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, as Australia's extreme year-to-year weather variability is mostly the result of alternating phases of our surrounding oceans. Indeed, …

Watch | How climate change is affecting monsoon forecast and disaster management
1 year, 6 months ago

Watch | How climate change is affecting monsoon forecast and disaster management

The Hindu  

From delayed onsets marked by intense dry spells, to devastating flash floods and destructive landslides, the monsoon in recent years has been a period of uncertainty and destruction for India. Although there are various factors behind it, there is a general consensus among scientists that climate change plays a major role. The Southwest monsoon that brings rain to the subcontinent …

El Nino stays strong, experts fear impact on winter, 2024
1 year, 6 months ago

El Nino stays strong, experts fear impact on winter, 2024

Hindustan Times  

New Delhi: There is about a 95% chance that 2023 will be the warmest or the second-warmest year on record, a key US government agency said in a briefing on Thursday and warned that several more months — possibly stretching into 2024 — could continue the heat trend thanks to the El Nino weather pattern remaining strong. We are watching …

Summer of severe heat predicted as Bureau of Meteorology declares El Niño
1 year, 6 months ago

Summer of severe heat predicted as Bureau of Meteorology declares El Niño

ABC  

The Bureau of Meteorology has declared two major climate drivers linked to hot, dry conditions are officially underway in Australia, prompting further warnings that extreme heat could hit this spring and summer. What future El Niño summers could look like Photo shows A globe centred on Australia showing sea surface temperature patterns in red and blue with a time scale …

Over 95% chance of El Nino conditions from January-March 2024: U.S. forecaster
1 year, 6 months ago

Over 95% chance of El Nino conditions from January-March 2024: U.S. forecaster

The Hindu  

There is a more than 95% chance that the El Niño weather pattern will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter from January - March 2024, a U.S. government forecaster said on Thursday, bringing more extreme conditions. El Nino is a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific, and can provoke extreme weather phenomena from wildfires to …

India sees lowest August rainfall in a century; September is likely to be ‘normal’: IMD
1 year, 6 months ago

India sees lowest August rainfall in a century; September is likely to be ‘normal’: IMD

The Hindu  

Rainfall in August had been the least in over a century, with India getting 36% less rain than it usually does in the month. With a strengthening of the El Nino and unfavourable conditions both in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, August rainfall has been markedly deficient in most of India, except in northeastern India, the Himalayan …

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