India's consumer inflation at 14-month high of 6.2%, first breach of RBI tolerance band since Aug 2023
FirstpostLast month, inflation had already surpassed the RBI’s medium-term target of 4 per cent for the first time since July. The October spike marks the first time in 14 months— since August 2023— that the inflation rate exceeded the Reserve Bank of India’s tolerance ceiling of 6 per cent. Upasna Bhardwaj, the Chief Economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank, Mumbai, said that “the sharply higher-than-expected CPI inflation has largely been led by a surge in vegetable prices but also a sharp pickup in core inflation.” Gaura Sen Gupta, India Economist at IDFC First Bank, Mumbai, said that “food inflation pressures are expected to ease in the coming months with improvements in supplies. Sen Gupta added that, “From a monetary policy perspective, RBI is expected to remain on pause in the December policy due to upside risks to near-term inflation outlook.” The RBI’s rate-setting body, the Monetary Policy Committee, had last month changed its stance to neutral, opening the door for potential rate cuts.