Australia's inflation figures are clear, but when it comes to official wages data, we might be flying blind
2 years, 7 months ago

Australia's inflation figures are clear, but when it comes to official wages data, we might be flying blind

ABC  

There's a bizarre lack of clarity over a particularly crucial economic data point that affects every Australian. Forecasting a peak in inflation to 7.75 per cent by the year's end, the Treasurer says Australians must brace to take some "tough medicine" if the nation is to escape a recession. That is, NAB's analysis has found wage growth increased 2.5 per cent in the three months to June — up 0.1 per cent on the ABS's measure for the March quarter. The story to this point has been that while wage growth is increasing, it's not increasing at a fast-enough pace — especially when compared to the pace of price rises in the store. The answer is that Treasury's view on wage growth is shaped by what the Reserve Bank publishes.

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History of this topic

Has Australia's economy turned the corner? Angus Taylor has a warning
1 week, 5 days ago

Has Australia's economy turned the corner? Angus Taylor has a warning

ABC  

Economists say Australia has turned a corner. Last week, he said labour productivity was still "disastrous" in Australia and the purchasing power of our wages had deteriorated "disastrously" since Labor won the election in 2022. By the time the 2022 election was held, the "real" value of our wages had already deteriorated so much that our wages were buying less …

Annual wages growth slows to 3.2 per cent, after slowest quarterly growth since March 2022
1 month ago

Annual wages growth slows to 3.2 per cent, after slowest quarterly growth since March 2022

ABC  

Wage growth in Australia slowed to 3.2 per cent over the past year, after recording the slowest quarterly wage growth since March 2022. "At 3.2 per cent, the annual increase in wages was down from 4.2 per cent in December quarter 2023 and is the equal lowest since September quarter 2022," she said. "The public sector contributed a quarter of …

Inflation has fallen in Australia and NZ, but which is faring better?
1 month, 1 week ago

Inflation has fallen in Australia and NZ, but which is faring better?

ABC  

New Zealand's economy is in recession. But inflation has fallen in both countries, and Australia's Reserve Bank is expected to start cutting interest rates soon. For example, New Zealand's labour force hasn't grown in the past 12 months, but you wouldn't know that by looking at its unemployment rate. Therefore, you could argue that New Zealand's unemployment rate is obscuring …

Australia's unemployment rate falls to 3.9pc in November, its lowest level since March
3 months, 1 week ago

Australia's unemployment rate falls to 3.9pc in November, its lowest level since March

ABC  

Australia's unemployment rate fell to 3.9 per cent in November, down from 4.1 per cent in October. "The only downside to Australia's remarkably strong job market is that any hope of a near-term interest rate cut is over," said Callam Pickering, APAC economist at global job site Indeed. "Today's blockbuster November employment report seemingly pushes back — yet again — …

Wages growth slows faster than expected but still exceeds inflation
4 months, 1 week ago

Wages growth slows faster than expected but still exceeds inflation

ABC  

Wages growth in Australia has slowed to 3.5 per cent over the past year, down dramatically from 4.1 per cent wage growth over the year to June. Public sector, collective agreements see bigger pay rises Both public and private sector wage growth has eased from recent peaks above 4 per cent but, for the first time in almost four years, …

PETER VAN ONSELEN: Which of these statements about the Australian economy is true? 1) Australia has won the war on inflation 2) Interest rates are too high 3) The country is run by a bunch of muppets
5 months, 3 weeks ago

PETER VAN ONSELEN: Which of these statements about the Australian economy is true? 1) Australia has won the war on inflation 2) Interest rates are too high 3) The country is run by a bunch of muppets

Daily Mail  

I used to enjoy a good muppet show as a kid, but the muppet show we'll see tomorrow when the latest inflation data gets revealed will be far less edifying. RBA Governor Michele Bullock will see through tomorrow's headline inflation figure And that underlying figure will be higher than the top end of the Reserve Bank's target range. The underlying …

Wage growth could still push inflation up, says BoE policymaker
7 months, 1 week ago

Wage growth could still push inflation up, says BoE policymaker

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Read our privacy policy Catherine Mann, a rate setter …

Why headline inflation numbers are masking the confronting financial reality facing many households
7 months, 2 weeks ago

Why headline inflation numbers are masking the confronting financial reality facing many households

ABC  

There won't be protest marches in the streets when the Reserve Bank of Australia makes its next decision on interest rates. In the lead-up to Wednesday's inflation reading for the June quarter, there was speculation that if it came in hot, above 4 per cent, a rate rise would be on the cards. In the end, the "headline" annual rate …

The good news is the Australian economy is about to turn up. Here's why
8 months, 3 weeks ago

The good news is the Australian economy is about to turn up. Here's why

ABC  

Right now things feel awful. Inflation was going to be 3.9 per cent, not the present 3.6 per cent and headed down, and the Reserve Bank's cash rate was going to climb two times in the second half of 2023 from 4.1 per cent to 4.5 per cent. Back in mid-2023, when asked about the probability of a recession in …

Spare us the talk about a wages explosion. There's nothing wrong with lifting Australia's lowest wages in line with inflation
9 months, 2 weeks ago

Spare us the talk about a wages explosion. There's nothing wrong with lifting Australia's lowest wages in line with inflation

ABC  

What is it with the Coalition and wages? Now, two years on, after yet another Fair Work Commission decision that lifted award wages in line with inflation, the Coalition has returned to the fray. On Monday, shadow finance minister Jane Hume asked Treasury Secretary Steven Kennedy at a Senate hearing how he could support a wage increase linked to inflation …

Can Australia pull off the once-impossible with jobs and inflation?
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Can Australia pull off the once-impossible with jobs and inflation?

ABC  

At least, that's the thinking of a growing number of the world's greatest minds as they ponder the thorny subject of chucking people on the unemployment scrap heap. Instead, it's been replaced by the "Non Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment" or the NAIRU, the elusive level of despairing workers that will keep prices in check. Michele Bullock's worst fears were …

Inflation further cools in Australia as confidence of ‘soft landing’ grows
1 year, 1 month ago

Inflation further cools in Australia as confidence of ‘soft landing’ grows

Associated Press  

SYDNEY — Inflation in Australia has slowed to its lowest rate in three years, the country’s official statistics agency said Wednesday, raising hopes of a “soft landing” for the nation’s economy. While the CPI is still above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s target band of 2-3%, the bigger than expected slowdown will raise mortgage holders’ hopes that relief on interest …

Inflation figures Australia: Major development in country's cost of living battle
1 year, 1 month ago

Inflation figures Australia: Major development in country's cost of living battle

Daily Mail  

Inflation has fallen significantly to a two-year low just months before lower and middle-income Australians are due to receive bigger tax cuts. This was the lowest headline inflation rate since December 2021, when it was at 3.5 per cent following the lockdowns in Sydney and Melbourne but before Russia's Ukraine invasion pushed petrol prices above $2 a litre. Inflation has …

How record immigration has kept your wages down, fed inflation
1 year, 3 months ago

How record immigration has kept your wages down, fed inflation

Daily Mail  

Australia's biggest bank says record-high immigration has suppressed wages, fed inflation and pushed up house prices. Australia's biggest bank says high immigration has suppressed wages, fed inflation and pushed up house prices Ben Thompson, the chief executive of cloud-based payroll firm Employment Hero, feared Australia would go into recession in 2024 as small and medium enterprises - also known as …

Federal government budget bottom line improved but offering few signs of real wage growth in 2023-24
1 year, 3 months ago

Federal government budget bottom line improved but offering few signs of real wage growth in 2023-24

ABC  

Australians hoping to see their wages grow noticeably in real terms will have to wait longer than expected, with the federal government's budget update showing higher-than-forecast inflation savaging the benefits of higher pay. Key points: The mid-year budget forecasts real wage growth to be just 0.25 per cent this financial year The budget bottom line has improved since May, with …

Wages are rising rapidly – what does this mean?
1 year, 7 months ago

Wages are rising rapidly – what does this mean?

The Independent  

The headline news is that average – there are plenty of variations – pay rose by 7.8 per cent in the second quarter of the year, as compared with the same period last year. Even so, because of still rapid wage growth, mostly unsupported by any improvement in productivity, inflation may take much longer to get from 5 per cent …

Inflation is falling in Australia and New Zealand — but how do we stack up against the rest of the world?
1 year, 8 months ago

Inflation is falling in Australia and New Zealand — but how do we stack up against the rest of the world?

ABC  

For more than 12 months, Australians have been hit with interest rate rise after interest rate rise in pursuit of a golden ideal — bringing inflation down. United States of America Current inflation rate: 3 per cent Inflation rate July 2022: 8.5 per cent Despite overall CPI falling, the price of groceries in the US remains high. United Kingdom Current …

Extra billions flowing into budget but real wages not tipped to grow for another year
1 year, 10 months ago

Extra billions flowing into budget but real wages not tipped to grow for another year

ABC  

Workers will have to wait another year before their wages outstrip the rising cost of living, according to Treasury forecasts to be released next week. Key points: Unemployment will be 3.5 per cent this year, rising to 4.25 per cent in June 2024 Higher commodity prices will also add extra billions to the budget's bottom line The greater revenue has …

Profits have driven inflation while wages lag behind, argue economists
2 years ago

Profits have driven inflation while wages lag behind, argue economists

ABC  

Increasing profits going to corporate Australia have accounted for more than two-thirds of the nation's inflation problem, according to new research from the Australia Institute. "Measured per unit of real output, corporate profits were 30 per cent higher as of the September 2022 quarter than before the pandemic started, less than three years earlier. Excess profits driving interest rates higher …

Businesses are fuelling inflation with unnecessary price hikes — and struggling Australians are paying for it
2 years, 1 month ago

Businesses are fuelling inflation with unnecessary price hikes — and struggling Australians are paying for it

ABC  

Higher prices, that is. The Reserve Bank summed this up in this week's Monetary Policy Decision: "Global factors explain much of this high inflation, but strong domestic demand is adding to the inflationary pressures in a number of areas of the economy." "There's no doubt that corporations have taken advantage of the supply chain problems and the desperation of consumers …

Westpac's warning to corporate Australia highlights extent of households' financial stress
2 years, 3 months ago

Westpac's warning to corporate Australia highlights extent of households' financial stress

ABC  

Actually, don't answer that. "By industry, the largest rise in wage bill in the three months to September was for accommodation and food services, up 7.7 per cent," Deutsche Bank chief economist Phil O'Donaghoe said. "And on the annualised basis, accommodation and food service workers saw a whopping 40 per cent increase in average wages over the past six months. …

Reserve Bank of Australia rejects 'scorched earth' policy to tame inflation with faster interest rate rises
2 years, 4 months ago

Reserve Bank of Australia rejects 'scorched earth' policy to tame inflation with faster interest rate rises

ABC  

Reserve Bank of Australia deputy governor Michele Bullock has said the bank wants to hang on to as much of the employment gains made during the pandemic as it can, even as it tries to cool the economy to tame inflation. Key points: RBA deputy governor says a "scorched earth" policy of rapid interest rate hikes would crush inflation quickly …

Will Australian policymakers ever want to see strong wage growth again?
2 years, 4 months ago

Will Australian policymakers ever want to see strong wage growth again?

ABC  

One of the joys of life is thinking about things in a way you're not supposed to, and that includes questioning the orthodoxy. It also contained some comments from Mr Jericho about Australia's "inflation-targeting" regime that has been in place since 1993. Who does inflation targeting really serve? "Inflation targeting in Australia since 1993 has not been neutral," Mr Jericho …

Inflation means your wages are worth less. Will they rise to catch up?
2 years, 4 months ago

Inflation means your wages are worth less. Will they rise to catch up?

ABC  

At a seaside restaurant in Sydney, Joe Natale can't get staff – and can't pay them more than the wages he's already raised. Key points: Most wages aren't rising as quickly as inflation, so there's a cut in 'real wages' for workers Wage data is out next month, but some indicators say it is rising Employers are struggling to pay …

When will inflation peak in Australia? More regular data could help us find out
2 years, 5 months ago

When will inflation peak in Australia? More regular data could help us find out

ABC  

We're getting new statistics. Key points: The ABS has begun producing monthly inflation data It shows the annual rate of inflation was 6.8 per cent in August Economists say the new data will help them keep better track of inflation It has decided to publish inflation data on a monthly basis, rather than every three months. And according to the …

Annual inflation was 6.8 per cent in August, says Bureau of Statistics
2 years, 5 months ago

Annual inflation was 6.8 per cent in August, says Bureau of Statistics

ABC  

Australia recorded an annual inflation rate of 6.8 per cent in August, down from 7 per cent in July, according to brand new data from the Bureau of Statistics. Key points: New data show annual inflation fell slightly between July and August The Bureau of Statistics will begin reporting inflation data monthly from October The new monthly data will help …

In New Zealand wages are growing. Will Australian workers' pay packets get a bump?
2 years, 7 months ago

In New Zealand wages are growing. Will Australian workers' pay packets get a bump?

ABC  

The cost of living is soaring. Key points: Without high wage growth, inflation means workers' living standards will decline Wage growth has been low for a decade Wages in New Zealand are rising to meet inflation So are wage rises coming? The Reserve Bank of Australia see wages rising about 3.5 per cent next year, but that's a significant pay …

With inflation rising and talk of a possible recession, Australia's low unemployment rate may not be cause for celebration
2 years, 8 months ago

With inflation rising and talk of a possible recession, Australia's low unemployment rate may not be cause for celebration

ABC  

Have you ever had the "tap on the shoulder"? So why raise this idea when this week Australia's unemployment rate fell to 3.5 per cent — the lowest level since 1974? "We think a relatively large rise in unemployment over a short period of time is a more useful definition of recession for Australia than the 'accepted' definition of two …

The RBA has changed its mind on pay rises and it's a bitter pill to swallow as business profits go up
2 years, 8 months ago

The RBA has changed its mind on pay rises and it's a bitter pill to swallow as business profits go up

ABC  

Did you feel a sense of frustration, or even anger, when the Reserve Bank governor said workers' pay rises should be capped at 3.5 per cent? "Wages growth also remains modest and it is likely to be some time yet before aggregate wages growth is at a rate consistent with inflation being sustainably at target," Dr Lowe said. The Reserve …

GDP growth beats expectations, but who benefits most as profits outpace wages?
2 years, 9 months ago

GDP growth beats expectations, but who benefits most as profits outpace wages?

ABC  

Australia's economic growth beat analyst forecasts over the first few months of the year, but there is evidence the benefits are being felt more by business owners than workers. Key points: GDP rose more than economists were expecting, with the economy growing 3.3 per cent over the past year Compensation of employees was up 5.5 per cent over the past …

Will lifting the minimum wage worsen inflation and raise interest rates?
2 years, 10 months ago

Will lifting the minimum wage worsen inflation and raise interest rates?

ABC  

Wages have become the latest battleground in the election, with debate raging about how much extra workers can get paid without sending businesses broke and consumer prices soaring. Key points: The Fair Work Commission is due to hand down its annual minimum wage decision in June Unions say 5.5 per cent is a fair increase while employer groups want no …

Even with unemployment low, wages fall behind cost of living. Can politicians get you a pay rise?
2 years, 10 months ago

Even with unemployment low, wages fall behind cost of living. Can politicians get you a pay rise?

ABC  

For some time, our federal politicians have argued that wages will grow when unemployment is lower, and they will moderate when unemployment is higher. "We have reviewed the data on wage growth in Australia, and something happened after about 2013," said Dr Jim Stanford, who co-authored the report, The Wages Crisis: Revisited, along with Professor Andrew Stewart from Adelaide Law …

Australia’s prices surge at fastest pace in two decades
2 years, 10 months ago

Australia’s prices surge at fastest pace in two decades

Al Jazeera  

Australian consumer prices surged at the fastest pace in two decades during the last quarter as petrol, home building and food costs climbed, raising speculation of an interest rate hike as soon as next week. “The combination of above-target inflation, an economy initially resilient to hikes and a more hawkish reaction function skews risks to a steeper and higher path …

Wages growth is starting to pick up, but workers like Linda feel left behind as living costs rise faster
3 years ago

Wages growth is starting to pick up, but workers like Linda feel left behind as living costs rise faster

ABC  

The official measure of base pay rates shows they are growing at their fastest pace since the pandemic started, but wages growth varies wildly by industry and occupation and average pay increases are still trailing the rising cost of living. Key points: ABS figures show base pay rose 0.7 per cent in the December quarter and 2.3 per cent over …

Treasury says nation could soon enjoy a wages boom — they just don't know when
3 years, 1 month ago

Treasury says nation could soon enjoy a wages boom — they just don't know when

ABC  

The federal government’s top economists admit they do not know when lower unemployment levels will finally trigger a wages boom, after a decade of stagnant wage growth. Key points: Treasury says it expected historic low unemployment levels to have already triggered wage growth The department does not know when the tipping point will be for a wages boom Officials remain …

MYEFO is forecasting a long-awaited rise in wages, but it doesn't mean it will happen
3 years, 3 months ago

MYEFO is forecasting a long-awaited rise in wages, but it doesn't mean it will happen

ABC  

As New York Yankees catcher and amateur philosopher Yogi Berra once noted: "It's tough making predictions, especially about the future." Almost two years on from that fateful night — which preceded a global pandemic, the worst recession in nearly a century and a $311 billion Commonwealth stimulus package — there is still no surplus in sight, with ongoing deficits adding …

Labor says wages fell 2.1 per cent over the year to June 2021, the 'fastest drop in 20 years'. Is that correct?
3 years, 6 months ago

Labor says wages fell 2.1 per cent over the year to June 2021, the 'fastest drop in 20 years'. Is that correct?

ABC  

The claim Wages growth in Australia has been sluggish for years, well before the coronavirus pandemic hit the economy. In a Facebook post, Federal Labor claimed that "under Scott Morrison real wages have fallen 2.1 per cent in 12 months, the fastest drop in wages in 20 years". Real wages — that is, wages adjusted for inflation — were 2.1 …

Anthony Albanese says Australia's real wages have 'flatlined' for eight years. Is he correct?
3 years, 8 months ago

Anthony Albanese says Australia's real wages have 'flatlined' for eight years. Is he correct?

ABC  

The claim After being overly optimistic with its wage forecasts for years, Federal Treasury is now, according to Labor, predicting that real wages will fall. "So much better than real wages declining over the next four years after flatlining over the last eight years," he said. Wages growth 'over the last eight years' When Mr Albanese made his claim on …

Unemployment below pre-pandemic levels as jobs surge resumes. Will wages rise?
3 years, 9 months ago

Unemployment below pre-pandemic levels as jobs surge resumes. Will wages rise?

ABC  

From fears of mass unemployment to worries about labour shortages, Australia's jobs market has staged a dramatic turnaround since the COVID-19 pandemic hit our shores. Key points: Unemployment falls from 5.5 to 5.1 per cent An estimated 115,200 jobs were added, the vast majority full-time The underemployment rate also fell from 7.8 to 7.4 per cent, a seven-year low For …

The COVID-19 pandemic helped unemployment figures, but spare capacity clouds Australia's future
3 years, 11 months ago

The COVID-19 pandemic helped unemployment figures, but spare capacity clouds Australia's future

ABC  

When it comes to jobs, Australia's recovery after the economic shock of the national, pandemic-driven lockdown has been nothing short of astonishing, at least if you check the headline numbers. In February, the unemployment rate dived to 5.8 per cent, way below the 6.3 per cent jobless rate in January, a performance that stunned pundits and professional economic soothsayers alike. …

Why you should do your bit to help the Australian economy recover and demand a pay rise
4 years, 1 month ago

Why you should do your bit to help the Australian economy recover and demand a pay rise

ABC  

If you really want to do something patriotic this year, if your fervent wish is to help our economy recover from the debilitating impact of the pandemic, you have the power to do something. Economists argue that higher wages for workers across industry would result in more spending that eventually would lead to bigger profits. Low inflation, excess capacity, burgeoning …

RBA warns wages freeze may chill COVID-19 economic recovery
4 years, 1 month ago

RBA warns wages freeze may chill COVID-19 economic recovery

ABC  

Australia's economic resilience throughout the pandemic continues to surprise policymakers, with the Reserve Bank being forced to dramatically upgrade forecasts made just three months ago. Key points: The Reserve Bank is only expecting wages growth to edge higher to 2 per cent by the end of its latest forecasts in June 2023 RBA governor Philip Lowe has said wages growth …

Superannuation cannot rise without stalling wage growth, RBA documents reveal
4 years, 2 months ago

Superannuation cannot rise without stalling wage growth, RBA documents reveal

ABC  

Australia's superannuation rate is legislated to rise but it could cost workers an increase in wages. Key points: Superannuation is legislated to increase to 10 per cent on July 1 FOI documents from inside the Reserve Bank of Australia show it believes a rise in superannuation will cost wages The view is based on the work of one think tank, …

Wages growth slows, consumer confidence plummets amid coronavirus outbreak
4 years, 7 months ago

Wages growth slows, consumer confidence plummets amid coronavirus outbreak

ABC  

Wages are growing at their slowest pace in 22 years as the coronavirus impact on the labour market spreads to pay rates. Key points: Wages increased just 1.8 per cent over the year to June 30 Private sector wages have borne the brunt of the wage slowdown Consumer confidence has collapsed again, after the Victorian Government imposed stage 4 restrictions …

Superannuation funds could be the answer to wage growth
5 years, 1 month ago

Superannuation funds could be the answer to wage growth

ABC  

When grappling with a complex issue, there's that moment when the heart sinks, and you accept defeat. The governor of the Reserve Bank, Philip Lowe, is big on this idea, saying in mid-2018: "…lifting productivity is the key to building on our current prosperity and ensuring sustained growth in wages and incomes." The answer is community pressure Well, when it …

Employment experts bust myths about your wages - so how does your salary compare?
5 years, 2 months ago

Employment experts bust myths about your wages - so how does your salary compare?

Daily Mail  

Almost half of all Australian workers think they are being underpaid when in reality their salaries are in line with colleagues and years of stagnant wages growth are to blame for low incomes. That's an increase of six percent from two years ago but the researchers said most people were mistaken for feeling underpaid with stagnant wages growth instead resulting …

Reserve Bank of Australia reveals why wage levels have been flat for years
5 years, 9 months ago

Reserve Bank of Australia reveals why wage levels have been flat for years

Daily Mail  

The Reserve Bank has revealed why Australian workers are being denied pay increases. Wages have grown at a record-low pace for five years, with pay levels failing to rise above the 2.5 per cent level since 2014 They found workers were missing out, from the lowest-paid employees on awards, to professionals on individual contracts and even public servants, traditionally Australia's …

Wages growth fails to pick up, with construction workers seeing pay stagnate
5 years, 10 months ago

Wages growth fails to pick up, with construction workers seeing pay stagnate

ABC  

Wage growth remains stuck around historically low levels, with workers receiving annual pay increases averaging 2.3 per cent. Key points: The ABS wage price index rose 0.5pc in the March quarter, below analysts forecasts centred on 0.6pc Annual wage growth was stuck at 2.3pc for the third quarter in a row Health care and social assistance had the biggest annual …

Why are Australian workers getting the smallest pay rises since WWII?
5 years, 11 months ago

Why are Australian workers getting the smallest pay rises since WWII?

ABC  

After five years of stagnating incomes — with Australians experiencing record low or near record low wages growth and decades without a wage breakout — it's hard to credit how different things once were, and not so long ago in the sweep of history. "Wage growth above 4 per cent year-on-year, comfortably above 4 per cent, is where you look …

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