IMD retains its normal outlook for monsoon
1 year, 6 months ago

IMD retains its normal outlook for monsoon

The Hindu  

The India Meteorological Department has kept its forecast of normal rainfall from June-September this year, unchanged from its prediction in April. At 96% of the Long Period Average of 87 cm, this is at the lowest end of what is considered ‘normal.’ The chances of an El Nino forming are near certain, and this will likely mean that rainfall levels will be below normal in northwest India, the department said on May 26. The key factor influencing the quantum of monsoon rains is the development of an El Nino, a cyclical phenomenon of warming in the central Pacific Ocean that is linked — in six out of ten years — to diminished rainfall in western and northwestern India, as well as the western parts of central India. June rains below normal IMD officials added that monsoon rains over most parts of India, including the rainfed-agriculture zones of the country, will be between 92% and 104% of the average. While onset dates have no link to the quantum of monsoon rainfall, IMD’s monsoon models say that June rainfall is likely to be “below normal”.

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