Will the Iranian people finally rise up in a ‘Persian autumn’?
The IndependentInternational attention is focused on the likely impact of the decapitation of Hezbollah’s leadership, and on how the Islamic Republic of Iran might react to Israel’s dramatic escalation of its involvement in Lebanon. A key basis of Iranian leader Ali Khameini’s authority has been the Ayatollah’s regime’s ability to project power abroad as a way of intimidating domestic opponents. The killing of Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah and key commanders, along with Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ advisers, has shattered the sense of invincibility promoted by the Islamic regime. The discrediting of the regime’s key Revolutionary Guards and its intelligence service’s failure to prevent Israeli assassinations like that of Hamas’s Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran itself could be corroding their effectiveness and even their reliability.