Australian home prices tipped to keep falling in early 2025
ABCAustralian home prices are set to keep falling in the first half of this year, according to a wide range of analysts, but they also expect the decline to be small and short-lived. "There are numerous signs of softening in the Australian property market," wrote AMP's chief economist Shane Oliver, before listing them: Auction clearance rates have cooled from their highs, particularly in Sydney, where the clearance rate has fallen to just above 50 per cent; new listings are up in most cities, suggesting rising distressed listings as high mortgage rates bite; unit prices and lower quartile prices are now leading growth in most cities as affordability and borrowing constraints are pushing buyers into lower-priced property; properties are staying on the market for longer and sales activity is down. "Housing demand has slowed amid a growing gap between income, borrowing capacity, and home values, exacerbated by slowing economic growth and higher-for-longer interest rates," she wrote. "After rising 4.9 per cent in 2024, we expect average property prices to rise around 3 per cent this year, with weak conditions initially followed by stronger conditions in the second half as lower interest rates eventually provide a boost to prices," he forecast. "Further delays in rate cuts, a sharply rising trend in unemployment and a sharp slowing in net migration could result in a much sharper fall in property prices, reflecting the divergence between home buyers' capacity to pay and current home price levels."