Demonetisation failed to make India a ‘less cash’ society
Live MintOn 8 November 2016, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the “demonetisation” of high-value currency notes. Now that sufficient time has elapsed, it is possible to bring data to bear on the specific question: Has demonetisation succeeded in making India a “less cash” society? If the former, it would provide conclusive evidence of long-run behavioural change, with the Indian public, goaded by a temporary currency shortage, nudged into permanently preferring to hold less cash as a share of broad money, even when the cash crunch has disappeared. It should be added that the failure of demonetisation to make India a less-cash society does not necessarily imply a complete failure of the larger digitization drive—data suggest that some components of digital payments are up after November 2016, although it is not clear if this is merely a continuation of pre-demonetisation trends or an effect wrought by demonetisation. For instance, on 30 August 2017, finance minister Arun Jaitley was explicit that India is a “high cash economy” and that changing this was a goal of demonetisation.