COVID-19 and India’s fiscal conundrum
4 years, 8 months ago

COVID-19 and India’s fiscal conundrum

The Hindu  

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to ravage economies across the world, policymakers are desperately seeking effective ways to mitigate its economic effects. However, with a government debt of around 72% of GDP, which is comparatively higher than all other emerging markets in the region, India’s fiscal room to opt for a massive stimulus appears much more limited. Any aggressive stimulus spending will not only result in a surge in India’s gross public debt but will also negatively impact its credit ratings, highlighting the country’s fiscal conundrum. Even if the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management constraints are relaxed, given India’s limited demand for domestic bonds, there is a need to seek capital flows to finance its additional stimulus by encouraging foreign investment in government securities. Given the acute constraints on fiscal policy in India, there is clearly a need to start re-prioritising expenditures away from low-priority, unproductive areas towards greater spending on health and social safety nets for low-income households.

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History of this topic

‘Inflation, geopolitics key global economic hurdles’: Nirmala Sitharaman
4 weeks, 1 day ago

‘Inflation, geopolitics key global economic hurdles’: Nirmala Sitharaman

Hindustan Times  

NEW DELHI: The world’s immediate priority for this decade should be the restoration of normalcy to stem rising inflation, Union finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Wednesday, listing equitable solutions for climate change, prudent debt management, industry-led skilling of youth, and coexistence of big and small firms as other decadal challenges for the global community. Detailing her priorities for a …

India should bring back fiscal positions to pre-pandemic levels: IMF
7 months ago

India should bring back fiscal positions to pre-pandemic levels: IMF

Deccan Chronicle  

Chennai: The International Monetary Fund has advised countries, including India, which have elections this year, to begin fiscal consolidation in order to bring fiscal positions back to pre-pandemic levels. When asked about the concern IMF expressed about the governments being tempted to increase public spending during election years in countries, including Mexico and India, Julie Kozack, Director of the Communications …

Credibility has been a highlight of India’s budgets
11 months, 1 week ago

Credibility has been a highlight of India’s budgets

Live Mint  

As per indications, this is likely to be an interim budget, though there is no constitutional provision to present an interim budget before a general election. Even as the interim budget may be devoid of policy announcements, it is important to look at the budget from the lens of what the government would want to achieve from a fiscal policy …

Shedding more light on the debt dilemma
1 year, 5 months ago

Shedding more light on the debt dilemma

The Hindu  

The elevated levels of India’s fiscal deficit and public debt have been a matter of concern for a long time in India. Financial repression The debt-dynamics equation states that when there is no primary deficit, if the growth rate of GDP exceeds the effective interest rate paid on government bonds, the overall debt will decline. When the interest rate on …

PM Modi chairs high-level meet as India sees COVID-19 spike: Should we worry?
1 year, 9 months ago

PM Modi chairs high-level meet as India sees COVID-19 spike: Should we worry?

Firstpost  

India in recent days has witnessed a spike in COVID-19 cases. Let’s take a closer look: COVID cases spike According to Union Health Ministry data, India registered 1,134 new coronavirus cases on Wednesday, while active cases surged to 7,026. COVID review meet: PM stresses on wearing masks, testing as cases spike According to data, the daily positivity rate was 1.09 …

India to face challenges in meeting fiscal deficit target: Report
1 year, 11 months ago

India to face challenges in meeting fiscal deficit target: Report

Hindustan Times  

India could find it challenging to meet the fiscal deficit target of 4.5% of GDP in 2025-26, an analyst at Fitch Ratings said on Wednesday, adding that the country's sovereign rating continues to remain stable. Earlier in the day, an official at Moody's Investors Service had also said that the government's fiscal deficit target for 2025/26 could see some risks. …

After 'smart recovery' from Covid, what do MSMEs expect from Budget 2023
1 year, 11 months ago

After 'smart recovery' from Covid, what do MSMEs expect from Budget 2023

Hindustan Times  

The micro, small and medium enterprises sector has posted smart recovery from pandemic-induced shock, with the goods and services tax paid by the sector in fiscal year 2022 exceeding the pre-pandemic level in FY20, the Economic Survey tabled in parliament on Tuesday noted. The Economic survey highlighted Covid had a significant negative impact on the sector’s performance. Economic survey highlighted …

No New Coronavirus Variants In India, No Possibility Of Surge Next Week: Govt Covid Panel
1 year, 11 months ago

No New Coronavirus Variants In India, No Possibility Of Surge Next Week: Govt Covid Panel

ABP News  

The intensity of circulation of the coronavirus in India is low, but the COVID working group has stepped up surveillance and airport screening. Chairman of the COVID working group NK Arora told news agency ANI: "The COVID variants are not been able to gain a foothold or cause hospitalisation. India logged 121 fresh coronavirus infections on Tuesday and the number …

India’s credit worthiness stable compared to negative outlook for the world: Moody’s
2 years ago

India’s credit worthiness stable compared to negative outlook for the world: Moody’s

Live Mint  

NEW DELHI: The outlook on credit worthiness outlook for sovereigns in the Asia-Pacific region, including India, for 2023 is stable, compared to the negative outlook for sovereigns elsewhere, said rating agency Moody’s Investors Service on Monday. “The debt sustainability and financial stability are relatively well anchored in the region, with contained government liquidity risks, broadly stable debt dynamics and generally …

COVID-19: Next 40 days 'crucial' as India may see surge in new cases in January
2 years ago

COVID-19: Next 40 days 'crucial' as India may see surge in new cases in January

Firstpost  

“Previously, it has been noticed that a new wave of COVID-19 hits India around 30-35 days after it hits East Asia…. This has been a trend,” an official said New Delhi: The next 40 days are going to be crucial as India may see a surge in COVID-19 cases in January, official sources said on Wednesday citing the pattern of …

COVID-19: PM Modi urges Indians to be 'vigilant' amid rising cases in many countries
2 years ago

COVID-19: PM Modi urges Indians to be 'vigilant' amid rising cases in many countries

India TV News  

PM Modi on COVID-19 cases : Prime Minister Narendra Modi today urged people to be vigilant and take proper precautions against COVID-19 pandemic, as he noted that the coronavirus is spreading in many countries including-China, Japan, South Korea, Thailand and United States. In his last 'Mann ki Baat' broadcast of the year 2022, PM Modi said that many people are …

COVID-19 update: India records 185 fresh cases in last 24 hours, active cases come down to 3,402
2 years ago

COVID-19 update: India records 185 fresh cases in last 24 hours, active cases come down to 3,402

India TV News  

COVID-19 cases in India : India recorded 185 new cases of the novel coronavirus in the past 24 hours. According to the data shared by the Union Health Ministry today, the total recovery rate reached at around 98.80 per cent and total recoveries data reached to 4,41,42,432. The total active cases of COVID-19 in India have decreased to 3,402, the …

Amid rising cases, PM Modi reviews COVID-19 situation in India at high-level meeting
2 years ago

Amid rising cases, PM Modi reviews COVID-19 situation in India at high-level meeting

India TV News  

COVID-19 India update: Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday held a review meeting with regard to Covid situation in the country. The development comes a day after Union Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya reviewed the coronavirus situation and asked people to follow Covid-appropriate behaviour, including wearing masks in crowded places, and getting vaccinated. According to the data shared by the Union …

India Reports 1,132 Fresh Covid Cases; Active Tally Dips to 14,839
2 years, 2 months ago

India Reports 1,132 Fresh Covid Cases; Active Tally Dips to 14,839

News 18  

With 1,132 people testing positive for the coronavirus infection in a day, India’s tally of COVID-19 cases rose to 4,46,60,579, while the active cases declined to 14,839, according to the Union health ministry data updated on Sunday. The active cases comprise 0.03 per cent of the total infections, while the national COVID-19 recovery rate has increased to 98.78 per cent, …

India's Covid tally sees marginal dip after 2,678 new cases reported; active count at 26,583
2 years, 2 months ago

India's Covid tally sees marginal dip after 2,678 new cases reported; active count at 26,583

Hindustan Times  

India on Friday witnessed a marginal drop in its daily Covid-19 tally after 2,678 people tested positive for the virus as opposed to 2,786 the day before, the health ministry's morning bulletin showed. The active caseload of the country has now reached 26,583, accounting for 0.06 per cent of the cumulative tally of 44,623,997. The recovery rate and the death …

India logs 12,751 new COVID-19 cases, 42 deaths in last 24 hours; Delhi sees spike with positivity rate rising to 17.85%
2 years, 5 months ago

India logs 12,751 new COVID-19 cases, 42 deaths in last 24 hours; Delhi sees spike with positivity rate rising to 17.85%

Firstpost  

India saw a decrease of 3,703 cases in the active COVID-19 caseload in a span of 24 hours. There are now 1,31,807 patients of the novel coronavirus in the country New Delhi: India recorded 12,751 new COVID-19 cases and 42 deaths in the last 24 hours, the Ministry of Health and Family Affairs informed on Tuesday morning. India’s COVID-19 positivity …

Economy may take more than a decade to overcome COVID-19 losses: RBI report
2 years, 8 months ago

Economy may take more than a decade to overcome COVID-19 losses: RBI report

The Hindu  

The Indian economy may take more than a decade to overcome the losses caused by the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic, according to Reserve Bank of India’s Report on Currency and Finance. Taking actual growth rate of 6.6% for 2020-21, 8.9% for 2021-22 and assuming growth rate of 7.2% for 2022-23 and 7.5% beyond that, India is expected to overcome COVID-19 …

RBI lending rates remain the same, inflation projection raised
2 years, 9 months ago

RBI lending rates remain the same, inflation projection raised

The Hindu  

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India on April 8, based on an assessment of the macroeconomic situation and the outlook, voted unanimously to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 4%. “The MPC also unanimously decided to remain accommodative while focussing on withdrawal of accommodation to ensure that inflation remains within the target going forward, while …

Lancet report on India’s alleged excess deaths due to COVID-19 faulty: Government
2 years, 9 months ago

Lancet report on India’s alleged excess deaths due to COVID-19 faulty: Government

The Hindu  

A study published in an international journal claiming COVID-19 mortality in India is higher than official counts is speculative and misinformed said the Health Ministry on Friday in a statement issued by it. The Lancet reported recently that excess mortality rates due to COVID-19 among the Indian States are not the highest in the world, because of India’s large population, …

An already slowed Indian economy faces fresh risks
2 years, 10 months ago

An already slowed Indian economy faces fresh risks

Al Jazeera  

Rising crude oil prices and supply disruptions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could further sap an Indian economy already slowed by COVID-19, posing risks to household spending and private investments, economists have said. The “surge in oil prices as a result of the crisis poses considerable risks to the Indian economy”, Aditi Gupta, an economist at Bank of Baroda, said …

Budget 2022 is impactful & visionary, says US-India trade networking body
2 years, 11 months ago

Budget 2022 is impactful & visionary, says US-India trade networking body

India Today  

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has been able to once again come up with an impactful and visionary budget which is “balanced, fiscally prudent and growth-oriented” in the midst of the third wave of Covid-19, the USA-India Chamber of Commerce said. It also paves the way for post-pandemic longer-term restructuring of the Indian economy,” Karun Rishi, president of Boston-based USA India …

Budget 2022: India to lay out plan for keeping world’s fastest-recovery going
2 years, 11 months ago

Budget 2022: India to lay out plan for keeping world’s fastest-recovery going

Live Mint  

India is set to present an annual budget topping $500 billion Tuesday, in one of its most keenly watched economic events seen pivotal to sustaining the nation’s recovery from pandemic-induced disruptions. While the fiscal deficit forecast is narrower than the 6.8% gap targeted for the current fiscal year, it’s far wider than the shortfall seen in pre-pandemic years. Higher spending …

A structural constraint that budgets must ease
2 years, 11 months ago

A structural constraint that budgets must ease

Live Mint  

On Tuesday, when our finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman presents the Union Budget for 2022-23 in Parliament, among her challenges would be to empower fiscal policy as an economic tool. Not just because it must now play a bigger role in recovery support as India’s economy emerges from a covid crevice, but because we need to ease a chronic shortage of …

Indian economy recovered \'handsomely\' from pandemic-induced disruptions: Panagariya
2 years, 11 months ago

Indian economy recovered \'handsomely\' from pandemic-induced disruptions: Panagariya

Deccan Chronicle  

New Delhi: The Indian economy has recovered 'handsomely' from the pandemic-induced disruptions, former Niti Aayog Vice Chairman Arvind Panagariya said on Tuesday, while expressing hope that the recovery will be sustained and the growth rate of 7 to 8 per cent will be restored. While an advanced estimate by the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation places India's GDP growth …

For the Union Budget, the priorities and challenges
2 years, 11 months ago

For the Union Budget, the priorities and challenges

Hindustan Times  

The 2022 Union Budget will be presented as India completes two tumultuous years of the Covid-19 pandemic and the attendant economic slowdown. The Centre for Economic Data and Analysis at Ashoka University discussed Pew Research Centre’s estimates for India, which showed that the country’s middle-income population shrunk by 32 million. This context to the 2022 budget reinforces the point that …

Strong demand, rising vaccination rate drive positive outlook for Indian corporates: Moody's
3 years, 1 month ago

Strong demand, rising vaccination rate drive positive outlook for Indian corporates: Moody's

Firstpost  

In a report, the rating agency said credit fundamentals are favourable for India’s companies on a sustained economic recovery and earnings of rated companies’ will rise on strong consumer demand and high commodity prices New Delhi: Moody’s Investors Service on Thursday said India’s rising vaccination rate, low interest rates and higher public spending drive the positive outlook for corporate sector. …

Vigilance, vaccination and endemic COVID-19
3 years, 2 months ago

Vigilance, vaccination and endemic COVID-19

The Hindu  

On June 27, 2021, the daily reported COVID-19 cases had fallen below 50,000, and have remained so for 15 consecutive weeks. From August 1 to October 7 — 2,219,097 additional cases were reported, representing, by extrapolation, 70 million infections, taking the total to 1,020 million, the susceptible population therefore is 1,400 - 1,020 = 380 million. Endemic transmission will be …

Explained: Is India's economy gaining immunity against Covid-19?
3 years, 4 months ago

Explained: Is India's economy gaining immunity against Covid-19?

India Today  

India’s economy is on track to rebound sharply after two waves of the Covid-19 pandemic dampened growth during all four quarters of FY21. A majority of financial analysts predict GDP growth at 18-20 per cent in the June quarter and remain optimistic about economic recovery in upcoming quarters as the second wave fades and more Indians get vaccinated against the …

No monetary tightening in foreseeable future
3 years, 5 months ago

No monetary tightening in foreseeable future

Live Mint  

With resurgence in the Delta variant of Covid-19, concerns have resurfaced over the global economic outlook. Otherwise also, recent data for the US and China suggested a slowdown in the strong pace of global economic recovery alongside rising prices of many commodities and raw materials. Factoring in these concerns, the systemically important global central banks like the US Federal Reserve …

Friendships, reciprocity, and diplomacy in the time of Covid-19
3 years, 5 months ago

Friendships, reciprocity, and diplomacy in the time of Covid-19

Hindustan Times  

Over the past few months, India has found itself in the throes of a cruel second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. Sohini Bose and Kabir Taneja note the centrality of India’s historical and socio-cultural linkages with South Asia and West Asia in their respective chapters. Similarly, in identifying the prevalence of nascent geopolitical trends in assistance received by India, Sreeparna …

State of working India 2021: The pandemic’s impact on the economy in India
3 years, 5 months ago

State of working India 2021: The pandemic’s impact on the economy in India

Hindustan Times  

This report documents the impact of one year of Covid-19 in India, on jobs, incomes, inequality, and poverty. On top of this, there were legacy problems such as a slow rate of job creation and lack of political commitment to improving working conditions which trapped a large section of the workforce without access to any employment security or social protection. …

India's first Covid-19 patient tests positive again
3 years, 5 months ago

India's first Covid-19 patient tests positive again

India Today  

A medical student from Kerala who was the first Indian to have tested positive for Covid-19 in January of last year, has contracted the virus for a second time. India has been witnessing a steady decline in new confirmed cases of Covid-19 since the second wave of infections devastated parts of the country earlier this year. To put this in …

How Covid-19 numbers are a warning against 'revenge travel'
3 years, 5 months ago

How Covid-19 numbers are a warning against 'revenge travel'

India Today  

There are early warning signs that a new wave of Covid-19 pandemic could be taking roots in parts of India. The World Health Organisation says the Covid-19 pandemic situation can be considered in control when test positivity ratio is less than five per cent. The IMS analysis showed Kerala’s R-value stood at 1.1, that is, Covid-19 pandemic could be spreading …

Covid-19: India Logs 41,506 New Cases
3 years, 5 months ago

Covid-19: India Logs 41,506 New Cases

News 18  

With 41,506 people testing positive for coronavirus infection in a day, India’s total tally of Covid-19 cases rose to 3,08,37,222, while the active cases declined to 4,54,118, according to the Union Health Ministry data updated on Sunday. The active cases comprise 1.47 per cent of the total infections, while the national Covid-19 recovery rate has increased to 97.20 per cent, …

India's economic recovery to be slower as banks turn cautious
3 years, 6 months ago

India's economic recovery to be slower as banks turn cautious

India Today  

The pace of India’s economic recovery has slowed down significantly after the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. Banks in the country have turned cautious after the second wave and have tightened lending even as companies and individuals are seeking more credit. At the moment, banks in the country have turned cautious due to a jump in loan defaults following …

Will fresh Covid stimulus package boost Indian economy? Here's what economists say
3 years, 6 months ago

Will fresh Covid stimulus package boost Indian economy? Here's what economists say

India Today  

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday announced several financial measures to boost the economy that has been battered by the Covid-19 pandemic. Read | Finance Minister Sitharaman's Rs 6.28 lakh crore Covid stimulus package | 8 announcements WHAT EXPERTS FEEL ABOUT STIMULUS PACKAGE Industry leaders and economists are not fully convinced that the fresh economic relief measures announced by the …

With 50,848 new coronavirus cases, India's tally crosses 3 cr mark; recovery rate improves to 96.56%
3 years, 6 months ago

With 50,848 new coronavirus cases, India's tally crosses 3 cr mark; recovery rate improves to 96.56%

Firstpost  

The active cases further declined to 6, 43,194 comprising 2.14 percent of the total infections, while the national COVID-19 recovery rate has improved to 96.56 percent, the data updated at 8 am showed India’s total tally of COVID-19 cases crossed the 3-crore mark with one crore infections being added in 50 days. The active cases further declined to 6, 43,194 …

India has just been devastated by Covid-19: Trump
3 years, 6 months ago

India has just been devastated by Covid-19: Trump

India Today  

Former President Donald Trump on Thursday said that India has been devastated by the coronavirus pandemic, insisting that China should pay USD 10 trillion to the US for allegedly being responsible for the spread of Covid-19 globally. But other countries were hit much harder,” he said as he went on to cite India, which is currently experiencing the worst ever …

Covid-19 slows down in India, how rest of world doing
3 years, 6 months ago

Covid-19 slows down in India, how rest of world doing

India Today  

The second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic has retreated in most parts of India. The decline in Covid-19 cases in India has India remained the biggest global Covid-19 hotspot during the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic. The WHO chief said, “The number of deaths reported last week was similar to the previous week, and the global decline masks a …

Diminishing options: The Hindu Editorial on RBI’s June 2021 policy statement
3 years, 7 months ago

Diminishing options: The Hindu Editorial on RBI’s June 2021 policy statement

The Hindu  

The RBI’s latest policy statement underscores the diminishing options available to it to address the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic. The bank’s Monetary Policy Committee left benchmark interest rates unchanged for a sixth straight meeting and reiterated that it would keep its policy stance accommodative ‘as long as necessary to revive and sustain growth on a durable basis’. Since …

India's economy to grow at 9.3% in FY22, risks persist: Moody's
3 years, 7 months ago

India's economy to grow at 9.3% in FY22, risks persist: Moody's

Hindustan Times  

India's economy will rebound in the current financial year to mark a growth of 9.3 per cent but the second Covid-19 wave has increased risks to the country's outlook with potential longer-term credit implications, Moody's Investors Service said on Tuesday. "We expect a decline in economic activity in the April to June quarter followed by a rebound, resulting in real, …

Indian economy, hit by COVID-19, shrinks by 7.3% in 2020-21
3 years, 7 months ago

Indian economy, hit by COVID-19, shrinks by 7.3% in 2020-21

Associated Press  

NEW DELHI — India’s economy, pummeled by the coronavirus pandemic, contracted by 7.3% in the 2020-21 financial year, just before the country was hit by another catastrophic surge in infections. Daily new cases set global records, spurring many states to announce widespread restrictions and lockdowns. In January, a government survey estimated the economy -- previously one of the fastest growing …

Economy needs a fiscal package to stimulate demand: Survey
3 years, 7 months ago

Economy needs a fiscal package to stimulate demand: Survey

Hindustan Times  

India Inc needs a fiscal package to stimulate demand as lower household savings due to higher health expenditure incurred in the second wave, and the fear of a third wave are restricting growth in private consumption, according to an industry survey of 180 companies. “In addition, there has been permanent impairment to income for many households who have faced job …

Covid-19: Should India start opening up?
3 years, 7 months ago

Covid-19: Should India start opening up?

Hindustan Times  

The second wave of Covid-19 infections in India is slowing down. Higher mobility levels might have acted as a catalyst for the second wave The first wave of Covid-19 infections in India reached its trough on February 11. The second wave reached its peak in Delhi on April 23, 2021 with a seven-day average of 25,294 daily cases. For example, …

Indian economy's ability to rebound on test amid threats from second wave
3 years, 7 months ago

Indian economy's ability to rebound on test amid threats from second wave

Hindustan Times  

The Indian economy’s resilience will be tested by its ability to overcome a devastating outbreak of Covid-19, although no one’s yet doubting its potential to pull off the world’s fastest pace of growth among major economies this year. Data due later Monday will probably show gross domestic product grew 1% in the three months ended March, making it the second …

Covid-19 and the disease of inequality
3 years, 7 months ago

Covid-19 and the disease of inequality

Hindustan Times  

Abandoned by the State that insisted on locking down, refusing to recognise the damage done to their livelihoods, India’s workers asserted their rights and made themselves heard by walking home in March 2020. Ironically, the scale of the health crisis has rendered invisible the deepening livelihood crisis that India confronts, drowning out the voices that fought a callous State and …

India’s economic report card is drenched in red ink
3 years, 7 months ago

India’s economic report card is drenched in red ink

Live Mint  

India’s nascent economic recovery has been derailed by the second covid-19 wave even before it could gather steam. Launched in October 2018, Mint’s macro tracker provides a monthly state-of-the-economy report based on trends in 16 high-frequency indicators across four segments: consumer economy, producer economy, external sector, and ease of living. A year ago, during the first nationwide lockdown, 13 of …

India must watch out for a taper tantrum in global capital markets
3 years, 7 months ago

India must watch out for a taper tantrum in global capital markets

Live Mint  

With the economic recovery better and inflation higher than expected in the US, the Federal Reserve has signalled it might taper its bond purchases. The International Monetary Fund in its World Economic Outlook of April 2021 has raised the possibility of capital outflows from emerging markets and developing economies should the financial cycle turn, spelling instability ahead for them. Lax …

Flashing lights: The Hindu Editorial on sliding economy and cash transfers
3 years, 7 months ago

Flashing lights: The Hindu Editorial on sliding economy and cash transfers

The Hindu  

The RBI’s latest monthly bulletin has just confirmed what many economists and anecdotal evidence have been pointing to — a sharp backslide in economic momentum. In an article on the State of the Economy, RBI officials including Deputy Governor Michael Debabrata Patra have flagged the ‘demand shock’ inflicted by the ferocious second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. And the previously …

Only 2 Percent Indian Population Hit by Covid-19, 98 Percent Still at Risk, Says Govt, Experts Question Claim
3 years, 7 months ago

Only 2 Percent Indian Population Hit by Covid-19, 98 Percent Still at Risk, Says Govt, Experts Question Claim

News 18  

A recent govt data revealed that only 2 percent of the entire Indian population has been struck by Covid-19 leaving the remaining 98 percent still vulnerable. “Despite the high number of cases reported so far, we have been able to contain the spread to under 2% of the population due to continued efforts by the medical fraternity, states, and districts,” …

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