The RBA has avoided the worst-case scenario with interest rates but economic uncertainty is looming
7 months, 3 weeks ago

The RBA has avoided the worst-case scenario with interest rates but economic uncertainty is looming

ABC  

That's the thing with silver linings. Here's how it happened Even with the carnage of the past few days, our market is only off 1.5 per cent since the start of the financial year, while some US indices are still in the black, giving an indication of just how fast stock markets have been running in recent weeks. Annual inflation rises to 3.8 per cent, up from 3.6 per cent Photo shows Finances generic Australia's annual rate of inflation lifted to 3.8 per cent in the June quarter, up from 3.6 per cent. The underlying basis for the tumultuous reckoning was America's unemployment numbers, which ticked up to 4.3 per cent from 4.1 per cent previously, coming off the back of a raft of weak economic indicators. Why the RBA should talk us out of rate hikes Photo shows Michele Bullock, looking at journalists, wearing a light blazer, standing at a podium, during a press conference Ahead of its meeting next week, the RBA has effectively talked itself into a corner: should it come good on its threats of a rate hike if inflation comes in hotter than expected, or will it choose to maintain its apparent reluctance to push rates even higher?

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History of this topic

Has Australia's economy turned the corner? Angus Taylor has a warning
3 weeks, 3 days ago

Has Australia's economy turned the corner? Angus Taylor has a warning

ABC  

Economists say Australia has turned a corner. Last week, he said labour productivity was still "disastrous" in Australia and the purchasing power of our wages had deteriorated "disastrously" since Labor won the election in 2022. By the time the 2022 election was held, the "real" value of our wages had already deteriorated so much that our wages were buying less …

RBA’s Bullock Alert to Signs Job Market Shows Stronger Economy
1 month, 1 week ago

RBA’s Bullock Alert to Signs Job Market Shows Stronger Economy

Live Mint  

Australia’s central bank is closely monitoring the state of the labor market as persistent tightness may signal a stronger underlying impulse in the economy, adding that policymakers aren’t “pre-committed” to any path for interest rates. “While the strong employment growth is good news for jobseekers, we are alert to the possibility that it is signaling a bit more strength in …

RBA delivers first rate cut since 2020
1 month, 2 weeks ago

RBA delivers first rate cut since 2020

ABC  

Samantha Donovan: Hello, welcome to PM. So what we've seen is those really sticky items in the inflation baskets, I think insurance premiums, out-of-pocket health care costs, the cost of building a new dwelling or rental prices, those price increases have been such that the Reserve Bank has been worried that if it doesn't keep interest rate policy restrictive, and …

Borrowers on edge ahead of RBA decision
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Borrowers on edge ahead of RBA decision

ABC  

Andy Park: Hello, welcome to The World Today. If by its very nature, the Reserve Bank cutting interest rates stimulates demand and increases inflation, if underlying inflation still isn't within the Reserve Bank's band of between 2% and 3%, won't an interest rate cut have policy makers put up the white flag on inflation? Jane Bardon: The independent Yolngu MP …

When does the RBA meet, what's expected to happen to interest rates and how much could you save?
1 month, 4 weeks ago

When does the RBA meet, what's expected to happen to interest rates and how much could you save?

ABC  

There could soon be relief for households with a mortgage, with economists predicting an interest rate cut when the Reserve Bank board meets in February. The board's decision to cut, increase or keep the official cash rate unchanged will be announced shortly after the meeting concludes at 2:30pm AEDT on February 18. Loan size Repayments decrease $600,000 -$92 $750,000 -$115 …

RBA chief's major hint that there could soon be some VERY good news ahead for home-owners
3 months, 1 week ago

RBA chief's major hint that there could soon be some VERY good news ahead for home-owners

Daily Mail  

The Reserve Bank has given a strong hint borrowers are getting some interest rate cuts in 2025 even though inflation is still too high. The Reserve Bank has given a strong hint interest rate cuts are coming even though inflation is still too high While headline inflation is at a three-year low of 2.8 per cent, the RBA regarded this …

RBA Is More Confident on CPI, But Too Early to Declare Victory
3 months, 1 week ago

RBA Is More Confident on CPI, But Too Early to Declare Victory

Live Mint  

-- Australia’s central bank is more confident that inflation is moving sustainably toward target but it’s still too soon to conclude the battle is won given a recent pick-up in consumption and a still-tight labor market, minutes of the December meeting showed. The Reserve Bank’s board discussed scenarios in which future policy would be eased to boost economic growth or …

NZ recession and Federal Reserve rate cut sink Aussie dollar but show the RBA dodged a bullet
3 months, 2 weeks ago

NZ recession and Federal Reserve rate cut sink Aussie dollar but show the RBA dodged a bullet

ABC  

If you're looking for a last-minute overseas summer getaway, New Zealand is looking increasingly attractive. On the monetary policy front, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand started lifting its cash rate from COVID-19 lows of 0.25 per cent in October 2021 — a full seven months before Australia's Reserve Bank. Why a Fed rate cut sent the US dollar soaring …

RBA forecast scenarios include interest rate hikes
3 months, 2 weeks ago

RBA forecast scenarios include interest rate hikes

ABC  

Samantha Donovan: To interest rates now, and while most analysts think another hike is highly unlikely, the Reserve Bank has indicated today nothing will be off the table next year when it comes to monetary policy. David Taylor: Betashare's chief economist, David Bassanese, says the Reserve Bank also has to factor in higher levels of government spending and how that's …

The RBA is preparing for all economic scenarios, including an interest rate hike
3 months, 2 weeks ago

The RBA is preparing for all economic scenarios, including an interest rate hike

ABC  

The Reserve Bank may have dropped the phrase "not ruling anything in or out" in its interest rates commentary, but that does not mean an interest rate hike is completely out of the question. That is because, as Dr Hunter explained, it would mean the RBA's key policy goal of achieving its mid-point annual inflation target of 2.5 per cent …

Australia's unemployment rate falls to 3.9pc in November, its lowest level since March
3 months, 3 weeks ago

Australia's unemployment rate falls to 3.9pc in November, its lowest level since March

ABC  

Australia's unemployment rate fell to 3.9 per cent in November, down from 4.1 per cent in October. "The only downside to Australia's remarkably strong job market is that any hope of a near-term interest rate cut is over," said Callam Pickering, APAC economist at global job site Indeed. "Today's blockbuster November employment report seemingly pushes back — yet again — …

RBA will monitor Donald Trump's trade tariffs for inflation risk, says deputy governor
3 months, 3 weeks ago

RBA will monitor Donald Trump's trade tariffs for inflation risk, says deputy governor

ABC  

The Reserve Bank's deputy governor has encouraged Australians not to stress too much about the likely impact on Australia's economy of a tit-for-tat trade war sparked by Donald Trump's presidency, and the problems it may cause for inflation next year. Andrew Hauser says if US president-elect Trump introduces wide-ranging trade tariffs next year, the direct impacts on Australia would probably …

The brutal reality of life under Anthony Albanese as economy grows at weakest pace in more than three decades
3 months, 4 weeks ago

The brutal reality of life under Anthony Albanese as economy grows at weakest pace in more than three decades

Daily Mail  

Australia's economy is barely growing despite record-high levels of immigration and government spending, as the country enters its longest-ever per capita recession. Australia's economy is still barely growing despite record-high immigration levels The Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed GDP per capita shrank by 1.5 per cent over the year, continuing a per capita recession that began in early 2023 …

The politics of the RBA's independence means a struggle over Australia's economic outlook is being fought in the shadows
4 months ago

The politics of the RBA's independence means a struggle over Australia's economic outlook is being fought in the shadows

ABC  

When the prime minister fronted the media just after 8am on Friday, the sense of elation was palpable. We now live in a world where the sainted independence of the RBA is such that the treasurer can't even be seen to be giving it a few "helpful suggestions" about interest rates. He says for the RBA's wage forecast to be …

RBA unlikely to lower interest rates in 2024 despite inflation at its lowest level since July 2021
4 months ago

RBA unlikely to lower interest rates in 2024 despite inflation at its lowest level since July 2021

ABC  

Australia's inflation rate remained steady in October, with analysts tipping this price data won't change the Reserve Bank's mind to hold interest rates at their highest level in about a decade until at least early 2025. The inflation rate held at 2.1 per cent annually, with the rising price of food, alcohol, cigarettes and recreational activities keeping it up, while …

RBA leaves cash rate at 4.35pc, acknowledging it's 'restrictive,' while ASX loses ground — as it happened
4 months, 4 weeks ago

RBA leaves cash rate at 4.35pc, acknowledging it's 'restrictive,' while ASX loses ground — as it happened

ABC  

Here are some highlights from the RBA Board's statement. Underlying inflation remains too high: "Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance. "Headline inflation was 2.8 per cent over the year to the September quarter, down from 3.8 per cent over the year …

RBA Scrutinizing China's Stimulus Impact on Australian Economy
5 months, 2 weeks ago

RBA Scrutinizing China's Stimulus Impact on Australian Economy

Live Mint  

Australia's central bank is closely monitoring China's stimulus measures and their potential impact on the economy. Officials are assessing the implications for domestic growth and inflation given China's significant economic importance to Australia. The RBA is on constant alert for signs of unmoored inflation expectations, which could lead to greater price volatility. However, the central bank remains confident that inflation …

No RBA rate cut yet, but Governor Bullock is about to find the pressure overwhelming
6 months, 1 week ago

No RBA rate cut yet, but Governor Bullock is about to find the pressure overwhelming

ABC  

Who'd want to be Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock? Reserve Bank keeps interest rates on hold at 4.35pc Photo shows Reserve Bank of Australia generic The RBA has kept interest rates on hold at 4.35 per cent, saying inflation is still too high to start cutting rates. The Reserve Bank board has decided to keep the cash rate steady at …

The RBA is making confusion about inflation and the cost of living even worse
7 months ago

The RBA is making confusion about inflation and the cost of living even worse

ABC  

There's a paradox about the way we respond to threats to the cost of living. At the same time, when the cost of living climbs enough to push inflation beyond the Reserve Bank's target, the bank pushes up interest rates in an attempt to drive measured inflation down. Sharp interest rate increases are a problem The response of the Reserve …

Why is the RBA deputy talking about gurus, charlatans and buffoons? It's the hidden danger in our economic debate
7 months, 2 weeks ago

Why is the RBA deputy talking about gurus, charlatans and buffoons? It's the hidden danger in our economic debate

ABC  

The media — and the internet in particular — are full of eye-catching bravado about the economy and what recent data is telling us about the future. He said, if you look at some of the data, the economy still has "a lot of heat left in it" while other data showed "it’s pretty cold and cooling rapidly". In a …

The RBA expects to keep interest rates on hold. It's bad news for mortgage holders and a reality check for the government
7 months, 3 weeks ago

The RBA expects to keep interest rates on hold. It's bad news for mortgage holders and a reality check for the government

ABC  

It was the understatement of the week. When Reserve Bank governor Michelle Bullock popped the bubble of anticipation around an interest rate cut any time soon, she acknowledged "this is not what people want to hear". The idea of a rate cut before the end of the year "doesn't align" with the RBA board's current thinking. "I think it's hard …

RBA Governor delivers another blow to Aussies with a mortgage - and why you shouldn't expect rate cuts anytime soon
7 months, 3 weeks ago

RBA Governor delivers another blow to Aussies with a mortgage - and why you shouldn't expect rate cuts anytime soon

Daily Mail  

Australia's most powerful banker has aggressively scotched expectations of rate cuts by Christmas - despite global concerns about an American recession and weak local economic activity. In the media conference afterwards, Governor Michele Bullock stressed a rate cut wasn't happening soon - despite the Reserve Bank statement emphasing the risk of an economic slowdown and weaker gross domestic product 'Given …

Finance guru Mark Bouris makes worrying admission about Australia
7 months, 3 weeks ago

Finance guru Mark Bouris makes worrying admission about Australia

Daily Mail  

Finance guru Mark Bouris has claimed that Australia has been in a recession for the past 18 months with the standard of living the worst its been in two years. Finance guru Mark Bouris has claimed that Australia has been in a recession for the past 18 months The cash rate is currently at a 12 year high of 4.35 …

'RBA to hike in August', says investment bank as property market pushes on up
9 months ago

'RBA to hike in August', says investment bank as property market pushes on up

ABC  

In short: The Australian property market will remain robust this year and next, according to several analysts. Australian property prices are expected to increase by as much as 5 per cent in calendar year 2024, according to the June PropTrack Property Market Outlook Report. "We got capital cities a little stronger at 6 to 7 per cent for the 2024 …

RBA's 'narrow path' gets narrower with an interest rate rise more likely than a cut
9 months, 2 weeks ago

RBA's 'narrow path' gets narrower with an interest rate rise more likely than a cut

ABC  

You could see, hear and feel the pressure on Reserve Bank boss Michele Bullock at yesterday's press conference, held after an angst-filled decision to do nothing. Before being peppered with questions, the RBA governor prefaced the discussion by outlining the "complex" economic dilemma the bank's board confronts. "I think the RBA probably should have increased rates a little bit further, …

RBA keeps interest rate at 4.35 per cent, says rate rise could be on cards as governor says she's not expecting a recession in Australia
9 months, 2 weeks ago

RBA keeps interest rate at 4.35 per cent, says rate rise could be on cards as governor says she's not expecting a recession in Australia

ABC  

The Reserve Bank has kept interest rates on hold at 4.35 per cent. "Inflation has fallen substantially since its peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance," the Board said. RBA governor warns the narrow path is 'getting a bit narrower,' but doesn't expect a recession The RBA board …

RBA Sees Some Households Struggling, Suggesting Rate-Hike Limits
10 months ago

RBA Sees Some Households Struggling, Suggesting Rate-Hike Limits

Live Mint  

-- Australia’s inflation is showing persistent strength and weighing heavily on the finances of some households, a senior Reserve Bank official said, highlighting the limits to further interest-rate increases. “The board are absolutely focused on the fact that inflation is clearly still above the target band,” RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said at a conference in Sydney on Thursday, referring …

RBA should now 'in theory' hike interest rates in June, but will it?
10 months ago

RBA should now 'in theory' hike interest rates in June, but will it?

ABC  

Inflation is rising again, and that's a problem for both the government and the Reserve Bank. The annual rate of inflation has ticked up slightly in April to 3.6 per cent, from 3.5 per cent in March, but economists say it's enough to put even more pressure on the Reserve Bank. "At the moment consumers are the ones copping all …

The Reserve Bank's interest rate dilemma: Households are hurting but inflation remains stubbornly high
10 months, 3 weeks ago

The Reserve Bank's interest rate dilemma: Households are hurting but inflation remains stubbornly high

ABC  

Please make it stop. That's what Michele Bullock must say to herself after RBA board meeting days, when journalists conjure a dozen different ways to ask the same question — what's going to happen with interest rates? Over the past year, the inflation rate for discretionary goods and services has been within the RBA's 2-3 per cent target band, at …

Jobs market 'incredibly tight' despite rise in unemployment
11 months, 2 weeks ago

Jobs market 'incredibly tight' despite rise in unemployment

ABC  

Australia's headline unemployment rate increased slightly to 3.8 per cent in March, after employment fell by 7,000 people and unemployment rose by 21,000 people. "Despite a small drop in employment, Australia's labour market remains incredibly tight," said Callam Pickering, APAC senior economist at global job site Indeed. "The easing in the labour market since late 2022 is most evident in …

RBA Financial Stability Review says Australia's banks safe even as up to 85,000 borrowers risk running out of cash
1 year ago

RBA Financial Stability Review says Australia's banks safe even as up to 85,000 borrowers risk running out of cash

ABC  

In short: Around 5 per cent of mortgage borrowers currently spend more than they earn on essentials and their mortgage, and more than 2 per cent could run out of savings by the end of next year. Around 5 per cent of mortgage borrowers currently spend more than they earn on essentials and their mortgage, and more than 2 per …

RBA leaves door open to interest rate cuts and rises as unemployment risks rise
1 year ago

RBA leaves door open to interest rate cuts and rises as unemployment risks rise

ABC  

What a difference six weeks makes. Economists and traders expect the US Federal Reserve to lead off a global round of interest rate cuts, but recent economic data suggests the RBA should beat them to it. CBA's head of Australian economics Gareth Aird points out that the RBA board made seven references to "uncertainty" in its one-page post-meeting statement, up …

RBA keeps interest rates on hold at 4.35pc but says 'it will be some time' before inflation within target band
1 year ago

RBA keeps interest rates on hold at 4.35pc but says 'it will be some time' before inflation within target band

ABC  

The Reserve Bank has left interest rates on hold amid signs that growth in the economy has dramatically slowed down following 13 interest rate rises since May 2022. The cash rate remains at 4.35 per cent, and while the central bank gave no clear indication of where it was headed next, saying it was "not ruling anything in or out", …

Did the Reserve Bank hit the brakes too hard? Why Australia's economy is heading into reverse
1 year ago

Did the Reserve Bank hit the brakes too hard? Why Australia's economy is heading into reverse

ABC  

The softening-up process is already underway. There's now every possibility the GDP numbers could tip negative, giving the first real indication that Australia's economy is shrinking under the weight of 13 interest rate hikes in quick succession. The RBA lifted the cash rate to 4.35 per cent last November, but it hasn't fully flowed through to the whole economy. Prepare …

Economists predict RBA's next rates move will be a cut, but stage 3 tax cuts muddy the timetable
1 year, 1 month ago

Economists predict RBA's next rates move will be a cut, but stage 3 tax cuts muddy the timetable

ABC  

In short: Westpac's CEO has joined senior economists in predicting that the next interest rates move by the Reserve Bank will be a cut to the cash rate. Westpac's CEO has joined senior economists in predicting that the next interest rates move by the Reserve Bank will be a cut to the cash rate. The Reserve Bank board says "a …

Why the RBA may be forced to cut interest rates before the Fed
1 year, 1 month ago

Why the RBA may be forced to cut interest rates before the Fed

ABC  

There's been a nearly universal assumption by both analysts and traders that the US Federal Reserve will effectively kick off the global rate-cutting cycle for developed economy central banks. While the average mortgage rate in Australia has risen by 3.2 percentage points since the RBA started hiking, US home borrowers, on average, have seen their interest rates rise 0.5 of …

RBA leaves interest rates unchanged at 4.35pc after first meeting of the year, ASX ends lower — as it happened
1 year, 1 month ago

RBA leaves interest rates unchanged at 4.35pc after first meeting of the year, ASX ends lower — as it happened

ABC  

The Reserve Bank has released its latest forecasts for the economy. While lowering its inflation forecasts to reflect the latest December quarter Consumer Price Index, which came in well below its previous expectations, it appears to be wedded to its view that services inflation is sticky and will take a long time to tame. The RBA has taken 0.6 of …

Australia narrowly avoided recession this year — what these experts think will happen in 2024
1 year, 3 months ago

Australia narrowly avoided recession this year — what these experts think will happen in 2024

ABC  

Fears that Australia would enter a technical recession during 2023 didn't eventuate. "I think the last interest rate hike in November has led to a bit of a perhaps change in expectation that maybe we haven't seen the peak in interest rates in Australia," AMP's deputy chief economist Diana Mousina said. "I'll be the first to say that we were …

Why further RBA interest rate hikes are less likely now than even one week ago
1 year, 4 months ago

Why further RBA interest rate hikes are less likely now than even one week ago

ABC  

Since Australia's Reserve Bank hiked interest rates two weeks ago, there have been two important developments — one in the United States and the other in the United Kingdom. In this way, decisions made in the US not to increase interest rates or even to cut them make it easier for Australia's Reserve Bank not to increase rates — or …

The RBA says the fight against inflation has entered a new phase. Here's what it means for interest rates
1 year, 7 months ago

The RBA says the fight against inflation has entered a new phase. Here's what it means for interest rates

ABC  

Australia has entered a new frontier in its fight against inflation after the Reserve Bank left interest rates on hold at 4.1 per cent for the second month in a row at its August meeting. It comes back to the fact the RBA's cash rate is only a benchmark — and it's only part of a more complicated puzzle used …

With inflation rapidly falling, there's a strong case the RBA pushed too hard on interest rates
1 year, 8 months ago

With inflation rapidly falling, there's a strong case the RBA pushed too hard on interest rates

ABC  

Outgoing Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has been called quite a few names in the past two years and might cop a few more in the months ahead. For all the criticism heaped upon him for his ill-considered and catastrophic call that interest rates wouldn't rise until 2024, which capped the Reserve Bank's generally poor forecasting over the past decade, …

RBA leaves interest rates on hold for second consecutive month
1 year, 8 months ago

RBA leaves interest rates on hold for second consecutive month

ABC  

The Reserve Bank has left interest rates on hold for consecutive months for the first time since it started raising them in May last year. Key points: The RBA's benchmark cash rate target remains at 4.1 per cent The central bank expects inflation to fall back below 3 per cent by late 2025 However, RBA governor Philip Lowe warns more …

Australia is on the brink of ending RBA rate hikes and an economic first: beating inflation without a recession
1 year, 8 months ago

Australia is on the brink of ending RBA rate hikes and an economic first: beating inflation without a recession

ABC  

What if Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe and his successor Michele Bullock were able to achieve something truly remarkable — a steady decline in inflation without further interest rate increases, and without bringing on a recession? Then, the US inflation rate was 4 per cent, well down on the peak of 9.1 per cent a year earlier, but high enough …

Interest rates unlikely to fall amid 'once-in-a-generation' inflation battle, warns former RBA boss Glenn Stevens
1 year, 10 months ago

Interest rates unlikely to fall amid 'once-in-a-generation' inflation battle, warns former RBA boss Glenn Stevens

ABC  

The Reserve Bank of Australia has warned that further interest rate increases are still possible, with a former RBA governor arguing the low-rate era is over, leaving households feeling like Australia is heading for recession. Key points: Former RBA governor Glenn Stevens warns interest rates are unlikely to fall back much from current levels He says it is rare for …

RBA's rate hikes creating inflation, Ross Garnaut says, calling for radical overhaul of economic policy
1 year, 10 months ago

RBA's rate hikes creating inflation, Ross Garnaut says, calling for radical overhaul of economic policy

ABC  

Australia's economy has become increasingly dominated by powerful firms that are extracting "economic rents" from the system, economist Ross Garnaut is warning. "There have been big changes over the 21st century that greatly affect Australia's capacity to deliver rising standards of living to most people in a growing population," Professor Garnaut said. Professor Garnaut said "economic rent" referred to income …

RBA forecasts harsher short-term pain for longer term gain
1 year, 10 months ago

RBA forecasts harsher short-term pain for longer term gain

ABC  

The latest Reserve Bank economic outlook brings both bad and good news for Australians. Economic growth over the year to June is expected to be just 1.7 per cent, more than half a percentage point lower than was forecast just three months ago. The RBA had expected workers to enjoy a 4.7 per cent jump in their hourly pay rates …

RBA delivers 'massive' interest rate hit to millions of Australians already struggling with overwhelming cost pressures
1 year, 10 months ago

RBA delivers 'massive' interest rate hit to millions of Australians already struggling with overwhelming cost pressures

ABC  

It was designed to shock, and it did just that. On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia increased its cash rate target — after a month's pause — by 0.25 percentage points, to 3.85 per cent. "Don't forget that the RBA estimates that 15 per cent of variable rate borrowers will move into negative cash flow by year's end if …

Reserve Bank hikes cash rate to 3.85 per cent, ASX hits three-week low, Qantas appoints new CEO to replace Alan Joyce
1 year, 11 months ago

Reserve Bank hikes cash rate to 3.85 per cent, ASX hits three-week low, Qantas appoints new CEO to replace Alan Joyce

ABC  

Here are some comments from Callam Pickering, an economist at global job site Indeed. He's just put out this note on the rate decision, which I think is worth quoting in full: "The flow of recent economic data provides a compelling case for further rate hikes,” he said. "The RBA anticipates that further rate hikes may well be needed to …

RBA boss Philip Lowe defends shock interest rate rise, saying 'there is a limit' to inflation patience
1 year, 11 months ago

RBA boss Philip Lowe defends shock interest rate rise, saying 'there is a limit' to inflation patience

ABC  

Just a month after the Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates on hold — to assess the economic fallout from an unprecedented string of 10 consecutive rate hikes — on Tuesday afternoon it shocked most experts with another rise. Key points: The RBA raised interest rates from 3.6 to 3.85 per cent RBA governor Philip Lowe says inflation needs to …

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