2023 recession now expected to start later than predicted
1 year, 9 months ago

2023 recession now expected to start later than predicted

LA Times  

Over the last year, the Federal Reserve has raised its key short-term rate eight times, causing many kinds of consumer and business loans, including auto loans, to become more expensive. A majority of the nation’s business economists expect a U.S. recession to begin later this year than they had previously forecast, after a series of reports have pointed to a surprisingly resilient economy despite steadily higher interest rates. The delay in the economists’ expectations of when a downturn will begin comes after a series of government reports that have pointed to a still-robust economy even after the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates eight times in a strenuous effort to slow growth and curb high inflation. Economic research released Friday found that the Fed has never managed to reduce inflation from the high levels it has recently reached without causing a recession.

Interest Rates Fed Rate Recession  economists  later  loans  start  economy  begin  fed  2023  rate  business  expected  interest  survey  predicted  recession

History of this topic

Fed leader, concerned about jobs downturn, tees up interest rate cuts
4 months ago

Fed leader, concerned about jobs downturn, tees up interest rate cuts

LA Times  

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell now sees inflation as less of a threat and maximizing jobs as even more important. But Powell’s emphasis on doing “everything we can to support a strong labor market” gave some economists reason to think that the Fed could make a half-point move next month. Powell said that the pace of policy actions would …

Experts are warning of a global recession. Here’s what that actually means
4 months, 2 weeks ago

Experts are warning of a global recession. Here’s what that actually means

The Independent  

The latest headlines from our reporters across the US sent straight to your inbox each weekday Your briefing on the latest headlines from across the US Please enter a valid email address Please enter a valid email address SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Please try again later {{ /verifyErrors …

Will US economy go into recession? Goldman economists lift ‘limited’ risk to 25%
4 months, 2 weeks ago

Will US economy go into recession? Goldman economists lift ‘limited’ risk to 25%

Hindustan Times  

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists increased the probability of a US recession in the next year to 25% from 15%, but said there are several reasons not to fear a slump even after unemployment jumped. “We continue to see recession risk as limited,” the Goldman economists led by Jan Hatzius said in a report to clients on Sunday. “The premise …

US economic growth increased last quarter to a healthy 2.8% annual rate
4 months, 4 weeks ago

US economic growth increased last quarter to a healthy 2.8% annual rate

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The nation’s economy accelerated last quarter at a strong 2.8% annual pace, with consumers and businesses helping drive growth despite the pressure of continually high interest rates. The central bank’s favored inflation gauge rose at a 2.6% annual rate last quarter, down from 3.4% in the first quarter of the year. the Fed thinks that it’s getting close …

Powell stresses message that US job market is cooling, a possible signal of coming rate cut
5 months, 2 weeks ago

Powell stresses message that US job market is cooling, a possible signal of coming rate cut

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday reinforced a message that the Fed is paying growing attention to a slowing job market and not only to taming inflation, a shift that signals it’s likely to begin cutting interest rates soon. “We also have an employment mandate.” On Tuesday, when Powell addressed the Senate Banking Committee, he suggested that …

US job openings rise to 8.1 million despite higher interest rates
5 months, 3 weeks ago

US job openings rise to 8.1 million despite higher interest rates

Hindustan Times  

U.S. job openings rose slightly to 8.1 million in May despite the impact of higher interest rates intended to cool the labor market. Vacancies rose from a revised 7.9 million in April, the first reading below 8 million since February 2021, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. The U.S. economy and job market have been remarkably resilient in the face of …

Why the recession still isn’t here
6 months, 2 weeks ago

Why the recession still isn’t here

Live Mint  

Steady hiring continues to fuel consumer spending and, in turn, an economic expansion unlike any the U.S. has seen. “Last year, at the first sign of higher rates, people ran for the hills, so it seems like the consumer is more battle-hardened now," he said. “If you keep interest rates at this level, there will be folks who just can’t …

Next US recession may be pushed back to 2025, according to JPMorgan
8 months, 3 weeks ago

Next US recession may be pushed back to 2025, according to JPMorgan

Hindustan Times  

US recession may have just been delayed to 2025, as per a recent note from JPMorgan's trading desk that highlighted the strength seen in ISM manufacturing activity in March that jumped over 50 for the first time since September 2022 which represents an expansion in manufacturing activity. The data ended a 16-month decline in US factory activity amid a solid …

US economy grew solid 3.2% in fourth quarter, a slight downgrade from government's initial estimate
9 months, 3 weeks ago

US economy grew solid 3.2% in fourth quarter, a slight downgrade from government's initial estimate

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Read our privacy policy The U.S. economy grew at …

Professional forecasters raise expectations for US economy in 2024
9 months, 4 weeks ago

Professional forecasters raise expectations for US economy in 2024

Associated Press  

NEW YORK — This year looks to be a much better one for the U.S. economy than business economists were forecasting just a few months ago, according to a survey released Monday. High rates put the brakes on the economy, such as by making mortgages and credit card bills more expensive, in hopes of starving inflation of its fuel. Professional …

UK fell into recession at the end of 2023 as economy takes center stage in runup to general election
10 months, 1 week ago

UK fell into recession at the end of 2023 as economy takes center stage in runup to general election

Associated Press  

LONDON — The British economy fell into recession at the end of 2023 for the first time since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, as output shrank more than anticipated in the final three months of the year, official figures showed Thursday. The quarterly decline followed a 0.1% fall in the previous three-month period and highlights how the economy has …

Federal Reserve signals that interest rate cuts aren’t imminent, leaving them unchanged for now
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Federal Reserve signals that interest rate cuts aren’t imminent, leaving them unchanged for now

LA Times  

Interest rate cuts are coming. “I don’t think it’s likely that the committee will reach a level of confidence by the time of the March meeting” to start cutting rates, Powell said at his news conference. The change in the Fed’s stance Wednesday comes as the economy is showing surprising durability after a series of 11 rate hikes helped drastically …

How the markets and the economy surprised investors and economists in 2023, by the numbers
1 year ago

How the markets and the economy surprised investors and economists in 2023, by the numbers

Associated Press  

NEW YORK — In a year full of big numbers, with strong gains for stocks and even more fantastic flights for crypto, it was one shrinking number that superseded all. It’s still relatively high, particularly after the many years of low inflation that everyone enjoyed before U.S. inflation topped 9% two summers ago. For a while, the worry was even …

The Fed is probably done raising interest rates and could cut them next year
1 year ago

The Fed is probably done raising interest rates and could cut them next year

NPR  

The Fed is probably done raising interest rates and could cut them next year Enlarge this image toggle caption Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images The Federal Reserve signaled it's probably done raising interest rates to curb inflation and the central bank could start cutting rates next year. "We're seeing inflation making real progress," Fed chairman Jerome Powell told reporters …

Market bets for 2024 thrown into chaos by US recession conundrum
1 year ago

Market bets for 2024 thrown into chaos by US recession conundrum

The Hindu  

Investment banks and asset managers have wildly varying stock market and currency calls for 2024, reflecting deep division over whether the U.S. economy will enter a long-heralded recession and drag the world with it. Amundi, Europe's largest asset manager, now expects a U.S. recession in the first half of 2024, meaning the group is negative on the dollar and likes …

Economists predict US inflation will keep cooling and the economy can avoid a recession
1 year ago

Economists predict US inflation will keep cooling and the economy can avoid a recession

Associated Press  

NEW YORK — Most business economists think the U.S. economy could avoid a recession next year, even if the job market ends up weakening under the weight of high interest rates, according to a survey released Monday. Most of the surveyed economists expect inflation to continue to slow in 2024, though many say it may not get all the way …

US economic growth accelerated to strong 4.9% rate last quarter as consumers shrugged off Fed hikes
1 year, 1 month ago

US economic growth accelerated to strong 4.9% rate last quarter as consumers shrugged off Fed hikes

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The nation’s economy expanded at a robust 4.9% annual rate from July through September as Americans defied higher prices, rising interest rates and widespread forecasts of a recession to spend at a brisk pace. The Commerce Department said the economy expanded last quarter at the fastest pace in nearly two years — and more than twice the 2.1% …

U.S. economic growth accelerated to 4.9% last quarter as consumers shrugged off Fed rate hikes
1 year, 1 month ago

U.S. economic growth accelerated to 4.9% last quarter as consumers shrugged off Fed rate hikes

LA Times  

Shoppers look over blankets on sale in a Costco warehouse in Sheridan, Colo. The Commerce Department on Thursday said the economy expanded last quarter at the fastest pace in nearly two years. The nation’s economy expanded at a robust 4.9% annual rate from July through September as Americans defied higher prices, rising interest rates and widespread forecasts of a recession …

A Recession Is No Longer the Consensus
1 year, 2 months ago

A Recession Is No Longer the Consensus

Live Mint  

Economists are turning optimistic on the U.S. economy. In the latest quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal, business and academic economists lowered the probability of a recession within the next year, from 54% on average in July to a more optimistic 48%. View Full Image “The probability of recession continues to recede in the U.S. as the banking turmoil …

U.S. employers added a surprisingly strong 336,000 jobs in September in a sign of economic resilience
1 year, 2 months ago

U.S. employers added a surprisingly strong 336,000 jobs in September in a sign of economic resilience

Politico  

The job market has defied an array of threats this year, notably high inflation and the rapid series of Fed interest rate hikes that were intended to conquer it. Though the Fed’s hikes have made loans much costlier, steady job growth has helped fuel consumer spending and kept the economy growing. Job growth has remained resilient for most of the …

The Federal Reserve keeps raising rates. That means it’s harder to get a car loan
1 year, 4 months ago

The Federal Reserve keeps raising rates. That means it’s harder to get a car loan

Associated Press  

NEW YORK — The Federal Reserve’s decision Wednesday to raise its benchmark rate for the 11th time, by a quarter-point, could once again send ripple effects across the economy. “Perhaps the scariest thing of all for folks with credit card debt is that interest rates are actually rising more quickly than the Fed is forcing them to.” The average Annual …

US leading indicators point to recession starting soon
1 year, 5 months ago

US leading indicators point to recession starting soon

India Today  

An index designed to track turns in US business cycles fell for the 15th straight month in June, dragged down by a weakening consumer outlook and increased unemployment claims, marking the longest streak of decreases since the lead-up to the 2007-2009 recession. The Conference Board on Thursday said its Leading Economic Index, a measure that anticipates future economic activity, declined …

The temporary madness of modern politics: is our strongest market a harbinger of recession?
1 year, 6 months ago

The temporary madness of modern politics: is our strongest market a harbinger of recession?

ABC  

Stephen Hawking, the scientific genius who solved some of the deepest secrets of our universe, summed up the fundamental problems facing modern economists. Rates and jobs part ways Not so long ago, in time before we were all sent home, the "natural rate" of unemployment was considered to be around 5 per cent. Inflation didn't immediately take off after Australia's …

US economic growth for last quarter is revised up to a still-tepid 1.3% annual rate
1 year, 6 months ago

US economic growth for last quarter is revised up to a still-tepid 1.3% annual rate

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy grew at a lackluster 1.3% annual rate from January through March as businesses wary of an economic slowdown trimmed their inventories, the government said Thursday in a slight upgrade from its initial estimate. The steady slowdown in the nation’s economic growth is a consequence of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive drive to tame inflation, with 10 …

RBA delivers 'massive' interest rate hit to millions of Australians already struggling with overwhelming cost pressures
1 year, 7 months ago

RBA delivers 'massive' interest rate hit to millions of Australians already struggling with overwhelming cost pressures

ABC  

It was designed to shock, and it did just that. On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia increased its cash rate target — after a month's pause — by 0.25 percentage points, to 3.85 per cent. "Don't forget that the RBA estimates that 15 per cent of variable rate borrowers will move into negative cash flow by year's end if …

How will we know if the US economy is in a recession?
1 year, 7 months ago

How will we know if the US economy is in a recession?

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The government’s report Thursday that the economy grew at a 1.1% annual rate last quarter signaled that one of the most-anticipated recessions in recent U.S. history has yet to arrive. The economy’s direction has confounded the Fed’s policymakers and many private economists ever since growth screeched to a halt in March 2020, when COVID-19 struck and 22 million …

Higher Interest Rates Drive U.S. Economy Slowdown To 1.1% Rate
1 year, 7 months ago

Higher Interest Rates Drive U.S. Economy Slowdown To 1.1% Rate

Huff Post  

LOADING ERROR LOADING WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy slowed sharply from January through March, decelerating to just a 1.1% annual pace as higher interest rates hammered the housing market and businesses reduced inventories. Yet the central bank’s policymakers are aiming for a so-called soft landing: Cooling growth enough to curb inflation yet not so much as to send the world’s …

How will we know if the US economy is in a recession?
1 year, 7 months ago

How will we know if the US economy is in a recession?

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. The economy's direction has confounded the Fed's policymakers and …

Bank turmoil led Fed officials to forecast fewer rate hikes
1 year, 8 months ago

Bank turmoil led Fed officials to forecast fewer rate hikes

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Turmoil in the banking system after two major banks collapsed led many Federal Reserve officials to envision fewer rate increases this year out of concern that banks will reduce their lending and weaken the economy. At their meeting last month, Fed officials projected that they will raise their benchmark short-term rate — which affects many consumer and business …

2023 US recession now expected to start later than predicted
1 year, 9 months ago

2023 US recession now expected to start later than predicted

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — A majority of the nation’s business economists expect a U.S. recession to begin later this year than they had previously forecast, after a series of reports have pointed to a surprisingly resilient economy despite steadily higher interest rates. Fifty-eight percent of 48 economists who responded to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics envision a recession …

UK avoided recession last year by narrowest of margins. It might not be so lucky in 2023
1 year, 10 months ago

UK avoided recession last year by narrowest of margins. It might not be so lucky in 2023

CNN  

London CNN — The UK economy flatlined in the last quarter of 2022, meaning that it just managed to avoid falling into a recession. “No recession on the pedantic definition of two consecutive quarters of falling GDP, but a calamitous performance nonetheless,” Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, tweeted. “The UK still is the ‘only’ G7 country in …

US economy slowed but still grew at 2.9% rate last quarter
1 year, 10 months ago

US economy slowed but still grew at 2.9% rate last quarter

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy expanded at a 2.9% annual pace from October through December, ending 2022 with momentum despite the pressure of high interest rates and widespread fears of a looming recession. “From the Fed’s perspective, a desired slowdown in the economy will be welcome news.” Consumer spending, which fuels about 70% of the entire economy, rose at a …

What recession? Consumers, businesses of this country signal optimism
1 year, 11 months ago

What recession? Consumers, businesses of this country signal optimism

Live Mint  

Real-time indicators and surveys point to the health of consumer spending and business investment. Make UK’s survey this week showed that manufacturers’ investment plans have held up in recent months, with executives planning to pump money into new products and energy efficiency. What’s really noticeable at the moment is confidence is as bad as the beginning of lockdown, yet the …

World economy to experience recession in 2023, says Centre for Economics and Business Research
1 year, 11 months ago

World economy to experience recession in 2023, says Centre for Economics and Business Research

Firstpost  

The CEBR takes its base data from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook and uses an internal model to forecast growth, inflation and exchange rates According to the Centre for Economics and Business Research, the world will experience a recession in 2023 as a result of rising borrowing prices intended to combat inflation. According to the British consultancy’s annual World Economic …

US recession a growing fear as Fed plans to keep rates high
2 years ago

US recession a growing fear as Fed plans to keep rates high

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — After scaling 40-year highs, inflation in the United States has been slowly easing since summer. We’re going to break inflation or we’re going to break the economy.’’ Many investors had convinced themselves that with inflation pressures gradually easing, the Fed might soon declare some progress in their fight and perhaps even reverse course and cut rates sometime in …

Don’t expect the bounce-back in the US economy to quiet recession calls
2 years, 1 month ago

Don’t expect the bounce-back in the US economy to quiet recession calls

CNN  

New York CNN Business — Don’t expect the bounce-back in the US economy in the third quarter to quiet the chorus of recession calls. “That’s why I’ve tried to wave people off of this whole question about whether there was a recession or has been a recession in the first half because inflation is bad enough,” Mark Hamrick, senior economic …

Wells Fargo 3Q revenue boosted by higher interest rates
2 years, 2 months ago

Wells Fargo 3Q revenue boosted by higher interest rates

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Wells Fargo easily beat Wall Street’s third-quarter revenue forecasts as higher interest rates helped offset a steep decline in home lending. Wells has benefitted from the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes this year as the central bank tries to tamp down the highest inflation in four decades. While those higher interest rates have padded Wells’ bottom line, …

The Fed’s solution might be worse than the problem
2 years, 2 months ago

The Fed’s solution might be worse than the problem

Live Mint  

The Federal Reserve System, the central bank of the US, has increased its benchmark interest rate, from near zero in mid-March 2022 to 3-3.25% in late-September 2022, in five hikes over the past six months, and projections place it in the range of 4.5% by end-2022. Small Indian cinemas take on big Hollywood studios Contrasting Q2 stories of two tech …

Typical mortgage payment has soared $337 in just six weeks
2 years, 2 months ago

Typical mortgage payment has soared $337 in just six weeks

Daily Mail  

Just this week, lender Freddie Mac said that the lending rate has more than doubled in the last 12 months While the seven percent rise in mortgage rates is the highest since just prior to the Great Recession The volatility of mortgage rates has led to potential buyers abandoning their plans to buy homes The average homeowner's monthly mortgage payment …

US Federal Reserve raises key interest rate as recession fears mount
2 years, 3 months ago

US Federal Reserve raises key interest rate as recession fears mount

New Indian Express  

It was the third consecutive increase of 0.75 percentage point by the Fed's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee, continuing the forceful action to tamp down inflation that has surged to the highest in 40 years. Soaring prices are putting the squeeze on American families and businesses and have become a political liability for President Joe Biden, as he faces midterm …

Powell: Higher rates unlikely to cause deep US recession
2 years, 3 months ago

Powell: Higher rates unlikely to cause deep US recession

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The last time the Federal Reserve faced inflation as high as it is now, in the early 1980s, it jacked up interest rates to double-digit levels — and in the process caused a deep recession and sharply higher unemployment. “We think we can avoid the very high social costs that Paul Volcker and the Fed had to bring …

United States recession fears grow as economy contracts for second quarter
2 years, 4 months ago

United States recession fears grow as economy contracts for second quarter

ABC  

The United States economy has unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter, with consumer spending growing at its slowest pace in two years and business spending declining, raising speculation the economy is on the cusp of a recession. Key points: Prices for groceries, petrol and other basics increased at the fastest pace since 1981 Job growth averaged 456,700 per month in …

US economy shrinks for a 2nd quarter, raising recession fear
2 years, 4 months ago

US economy shrinks for a 2nd quarter, raising recession fear

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy shrank from April through June for a second straight quarter, contracting at a 0.9% annual pace and raising fears that the nation may be approaching a recession. “The fact that the economy created 2.7 million payrolls in the first half of the year would seem to argue against an official recession call for now.” Still, …

Recession fears deepen as U.S. economy contracts again
2 years, 4 months ago

Recession fears deepen as U.S. economy contracts again

The Hindu  

The U.S. economy contracted for a second straight quarter between April and June, government data showed Thursday, adding fuel to recession fears in a headache for President Joe Biden ahead of midterm elections. Mr. Biden insisted that the US economy is "on the right path," despite the slowdown, but his critics are sure to seize on the report as proof …

US not yet in recession and 4 other takeaways from the Fed
2 years, 4 months ago

US not yet in recession and 4 other takeaways from the Fed

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Jerome Powell delivered a tough message at the start of a news conference Wednesday: Inflation is way too high, and the Federal Reserve is laser-focused on taming it with higher borrowing costs. With the Fed’s benchmark interest rate now at a level that’s believed to neither stimulate nor restrain growth, Powell said the pace of rate hikes could …

US economy shrinks for a second quarter, fuelling recession fears
2 years, 4 months ago

US economy shrinks for a second quarter, fuelling recession fears

Al Jazeera  

The fall in US GDP comes on the heels of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, as Chair Jerome Powell says growth needs to slow. The US economy shrank for a second straight quarter, raising chances of a recession, as decades-high inflation undercut consumer spending and Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes stymied business investment and housing demand. The report illustrates how …

Yellen downplays US recession risk as economic reports loom
2 years, 4 months ago

Yellen downplays US recession risk as economic reports loom

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Sunday said the U.S. economy is slowing but pointed to healthy hiring as proof that it is not yet in recession. Yellen spoke on NBC’s “Meet the Press” just before a slew of economic reports will be released this week that will shed light on an economy currently besieged by rampant inflation and …

As Fed tightens, economists worry it will go too far
2 years, 5 months ago

As Fed tightens, economists worry it will go too far

Live Mint  

Economists increasingly expect the Federal Reserve, in its efforts to push down inflation, to raise rates enough to trigger a recession, with many worrying the central bank will go too far. “Fiscal and monetary policy was left too loose for too long and now the Fed is playing catch-up and this always comes with a chance of overshoot," said James …

Canadian bank expects short-lived recession in 2023
2 years, 5 months ago

Canadian bank expects short-lived recession in 2023

Associated Press  

TORONTO — A report issued Thursday by the Royal Bank of Canada says the country is headed towards a recession in 2023, but it will be short-lived and not as severe as prior downturns. RBC economists said that soaring food and energy prices, rising interest rates and ongoing labor shortages will push the economy into a “moderate contraction″ next year. …

Discover Related