AP EXPLAINS: How one computer forecast model botched Ian
As Hurricane Ian bore down on Florida, normally reliable computer forecast models couldn’t agree on where the killer storm would land. The major American computer forecast model -- one of several used by forecasters -- missed that and the error was “critical,” a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration postmortem of computer forecast models determined Thursday. Ian’s eventual southwestern Florida landfall was always within the “cone of uncertainty” of the National Hurricane Center’s forecast track, although at times it was on the farthest edge. University of Albany meteorology professor Brian Tang said he calculated the American model’s average track error during Ian at 325 miles five-days out, while the European model was closer to 220 miles.
Accurate forecasts alone aren't enough to prevent deaths from hurricanes and storms
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