Options Pricing Suggests Rupee is Likely to Weaken Further
Live Mint-- The rupee is set to extend its slide from record lows in the near term, with the options market signaling a significant chance of the currency weakening to 87 per dollar by the end of March. “Most prefer a softer rupee in the short-to-medium term, aligning with broader dollar strength across Asian currencies,” said Mukund Daga, head of foreign exchange-options for Asia at Barclays Bank Plc in Singapore. On Wednesday, when the rupee fell to another low, $2.1 billion in notional contracts were traded via dollar-rupee call options in offshore markets — nearly double the notional traded via puts, according to Depository Trust and Clearing Corp. data “This shows that market participants continue to place elevated bets on a continued dollar advance,” said Akshay Chinchalkar, head of research at Axis Securities Ltd. in Mumbai. The dollar has rallied for three straight months ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration, and may continue to strengthen more if US non-farm payrolls data on Friday further reduces expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.