EXPLAINER: Why bond yields may be warning of a recession
2 years, 9 months ago

EXPLAINER: Why bond yields may be warning of a recession

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. The “yield curve” is watched for clues to how the bond market is feeling about the U.S. economy’s long-term prospects. When yields for short-term Treasurys are higher than yields for long-term ones, market watchers call it an “inverted yield curve.” And when that chart has a downward sloping line, Wall Street starts getting nervous. Some market watchers have also suggested the yield curve is now less significant because herculean actions by central banks around the world have distorted yields. Last week, he said that he pays more attention to the first 18 months of the yield curve than what's going on between the two-year and 10-year yields.

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History of this topic

A bond selloff is rocking the world. You might want to take the other side.
Trending News
3 days ago

A bond selloff is rocking the world. You might want to take the other side.

Live Mint  

Wall Street is really worried about bonds. On Friday, a jobs report that blew past expectations pushed yields on 10-year Treasurys to 4.772%, the highest close since Nov. 1, 2023, and those on 30-year paper to 4.962%. Rather, it might be the result of investors applying a higher discount or “term premium" to hold long-term bonds, estimates by the Federal …

Treasury Yields Edge Higher With Long-Term Debt Out of Favor
3 weeks, 1 day ago

Treasury Yields Edge Higher With Long-Term Debt Out of Favor

Live Mint  

-- Treasury yields rose on Monday as traders continue to see a slower pace of interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve next year and the potential worsening of country’s fiscal backdrop under President-elect Donald Trump’s administration. The moves Monday built on a rise in yields last week following US central bank officials latest quarterly projections — dubbed the dot …

Are we saying goodbye to the flawless record of this recession predictor?
2 months, 3 weeks ago

Are we saying goodbye to the flawless record of this recession predictor?

NPR  

Are we saying goodbye to the flawless record of this recession predictor? Two years ago, the yield curve inverted, meaning short-term interest rates on treasury bonds were unusually higher than long term rates. Our colleagues at The Indicator From Planet Money, Darian Woods and Adrian Ma, explain what is going on with the inverted yield curve. DARIAN WOODS, BYLINE: The …

Longer-dated yields climb as investors consider recession outlook
4 months, 2 weeks ago

Longer-dated yields climb as investors consider recession outlook

Live Mint  

* U.S. two-year note auction better than expected * U.S. 2/10 year yield curve inversion narrowest in 3 weeks * Investors await PCE data due Friday By Caroline Valetkevitch NEW YORK, Aug 27 - U.S. Treasury longer-dated yields edged higher on Tuesday, as investors assessed the likelihood that the U.S. economy will be able to avoid a recession, while a …

Experts are warning of a global recession. Here’s what that actually means
5 months, 1 week ago

Experts are warning of a global recession. Here’s what that actually means

The Independent  

The latest headlines from our reporters across the US sent straight to your inbox each weekday Your briefing on the latest headlines from across the US Please enter a valid email address Please enter a valid email address SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Please try again later {{ /verifyErrors …

The Fed’s high rates spur fear of slowdown, yet recession signals have so far proved wrong
5 months, 1 week ago

The Fed’s high rates spur fear of slowdown, yet recession signals have so far proved wrong

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The turmoil shaking global financial markets reflects a sudden fear that the Federal Reserve may have held its key interest rate too high for too long, heightening the risk of a U.S. recession. “Absent a shock, it’s a bit more challenging to get into a recession.” Other previously notable recession indicators that have flopped in the post-pandemic era …

Wall Street’s favorite recession indicator is in a slump of its own
7 months, 2 weeks ago

Wall Street’s favorite recession indicator is in a slump of its own

Live Mint  

An anomaly known as an inverted yield curve, in which yields on short-term Treasurys exceed those of longer-term government debt, has long been taken as a nearly surefire signal that an economic pullback looms. If a recession doesn’t materialize soon, it could do lasting damage to the yield curve’s status as a warning system, providing one of the most significant …

India's Bond Yield Curve Inverts For First Time in 8 Years: What Does It Mean?
1 year, 10 months ago

India's Bond Yield Curve Inverts For First Time in 8 Years: What Does It Mean?

News 18  

For the first time since May 2015, India’s bond yield curve witnessed inversion, with 364-day treasury bill cutoff yield briefly rising above that of the benchmark 10-year bond. The RBI sold 364-day notes at a 7.48 per cent yield on Wednesday, while the 10-year benchmark 7.26 per cent 2032 bond yield saw a high of 7.4728 per cent, and ended …

Treasury bond yield inversion raises worries over recession
2 years, 7 months ago

Treasury bond yield inversion raises worries over recession

Associated Press  

NEW YORK — One of the more reliable warning signals for an economic recession started blinking again. When yields for short-term Treasurys are higher than yields for long-term ones, market watchers call it an “inverted yield curve.” And when that chart has a downward sloping line, Wall Street starts getting nervous. Every recession in the past 60 years has been …

Treasury bond yield inversion raises worries over recession
2 years, 7 months ago

Treasury bond yield inversion raises worries over recession

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. When yields for short-term Treasurys are higher than yields …

'Decent chance' of economic downturn in Australia, as experts predict US recession by 2024
2 years, 8 months ago

'Decent chance' of economic downturn in Australia, as experts predict US recession by 2024

ABC  

When America sneezes, the world catches a cold – as the old saying goes. Money markets are betting the Fed will announce outsized rate hikes at its next few meetings – and that its benchmark interest rate will soar to 3.2 per cent in a year's time. The source of this panic was a recession signal from the US government …

Economists seek recession clues in the yield curve
2 years, 9 months ago

Economists seek recession clues in the yield curve

Live Mint  

As yields on two-year Treasury notes this week moved above yields on 10-year notes, Wall Street analysts sent up warning flares. When short-term interest rates are higher than long-term interest rates, a phenomenon Wall Street mavens call an inverted yield curve, it is sometimes a signal of recession. Wall Street inboxes were thus stuffed this week with notes like Mr. …

EXPLAINED: Why Bond Yields In US May Be Warning Of A Recession
2 years, 9 months ago

EXPLAINED: Why Bond Yields In US May Be Warning Of A Recession

News 18  

One of the more reliable warning signals for an economic recession is starting to shine. The “yield curve” is watched for clues to how the bond market is feeling about the US economy’s long-term prospects. When yields for short-term Treasurys are higher than yields for long-term ones, market watchers call it an “inverted yield curve.” And when that chart has …

EXPLAINER: Why bond yields may be warning of a recession
2 years, 9 months ago

EXPLAINER: Why bond yields may be warning of a recession

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. The “yield curve” is watched for clues to how …

Recession is not right around the corner, Fed official says
5 years, 2 months ago

Recession is not right around the corner, Fed official says

CNN  

New York CNN Business — The American economy is experiencing turbulence. “Negative interest rates are very hard on institutions like community banks that rely heavily on deposit taking,” Daly said. “That really makes their profitability suffer…That would be a pretty heavy lift, in my mind.” Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, said in September that he doesn’t think …

With the warning lights flashing, how likely is a global recession?
5 years, 2 months ago

With the warning lights flashing, how likely is a global recession?

The Independent  

Just how likely is a global recession? The aforementioned 3 per cent represents a marked slowdown from last year’s 3.6 per cent. Oxford Economics recently identified seven of them: world industrial output, global stocks, commodity prices, corporate bond spreads, US credit standards, a US earnings recession and the US bond yield curve. Despite the fear that’s been spread through the …

Opinion | The world could be staring at a long era of deflation
5 years, 4 months ago

Opinion | The world could be staring at a long era of deflation

Live Mint  

There are three games of chicken currently in play in the US. The second is associated with US President Donald Trump’s constant dissatisfaction with the US Federal Reserve on the need to cut real interest rates more aggressively, though a rate cut happened last quarter and another seems in sight. The third, which seems more perplexing, is the Fed’s internal …

Wall Street’s favorite recession signal suggests the economy is in trouble
5 years, 4 months ago

Wall Street’s favorite recession signal suggests the economy is in trouble

CNN  

New York CNN Business — Wall Street’s favorite fortuneteller is telling an ominous story about the fate of America’s economy. If things continue to escalate, that poses a real threat to the business cycle.” James McCann, senior global economist at Aberdeen Standard Investments “Anything over 30% is very bad,” said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. “Everyone either looks at …

Why people should not get too worked up about recession fears
5 years, 4 months ago

Why people should not get too worked up about recession fears

CNN  

New York CNN Business — Trade war fears are rattling investors. There is not enough evidence to suggest we are on the immediate verge of recession,” said Steve Chiavarone, a portfolio manager and equity strategist at Federated Investors. “Fears of a near-term recession are overblown,” said KC Mathews, chief investment officer with UMB Bank. “It’s extremely important for investors to …

How to invest if you’re worried a recession is coming
5 years, 4 months ago

How to invest if you’re worried a recession is coming

Salon  

Although the U.S. economy continues to grow and add jobs, talk of a recession is increasingly in the air due to a number of worrying signs. But the continued growth of defined contribution plans like 401s — which require people to make choices about where to put their money — means their financial security increasingly depends on their own investment …

Yield curve: What it is and why it matters
5 years, 4 months ago

Yield curve: What it is and why it matters

CNN  

New York CNN Business — The bond market is trying to tell us something: The yield curve keeps inverting, flashing a warning sign that a recession could be coming. A yield curve inversion happens when long-term bond yields fall below short-term bond yields. Yield curve inversions are one of those moments in markets that get everyone’s attention. Although an inverted …

Inverted yield curve: Does the bond market really signal we’re heading for a recession?
5 years, 5 months ago

Inverted yield curve: Does the bond market really signal we’re heading for a recession?

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Please enter a valid email address Please enter a valid email address SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. An "inverted yield curve" may …

Recession may be coming a lot sooner than anyone thought (Opinion)
5 years, 5 months ago

Recession may be coming a lot sooner than anyone thought (Opinion)

CNN  

Editor’s Note: Sven Henrich is founder and lead market strategist at NorthmanTrader. But just one day later, global stock markets sold off hard due to ever-weakening economic data in Europe and Asia and further yield curve inversions. For the 10 yield curve inversions since 1956, the S&P 500 peaked within approximately three months of the inversion six times. A sudden …

The bond market smells recession as global stress rises
5 years, 5 months ago

The bond market smells recession as global stress rises

Associated Press  

NEW YORK — Compared to the free-swinging and sometimes emotional stock market, the bond market is supposed to be the sober and measured one. The last inversion of this part of the yield curve began in December 2005, two years before the Great Recession tore through the global economy. Some market watchers also say the yield curve may be less …

Bond rally: The bond market is freaking out. Here’s why that matters
5 years, 7 months ago

Bond rally: The bond market is freaking out. Here’s why that matters

CNN  

New York CNN Business — The bond market is once again sending a big fat warning sign about the US economy. Inverted yield curve is often a sign of bad things to come The yield on the 3-month US bond is currently higher than the 10-year, hovering around 2.35%. Yields sliding in rest of the world But bond yields around …

The bond market flashed recession. So why is the stock market booming?
5 years, 9 months ago

The bond market flashed recession. So why is the stock market booming?

CNN  

New York CNN Business — A reliable recession predictor flashed in the US bond market last week: the most closely watched part of the Treasury yield curve inverted. Michael Darda, chief economist and market strategist at MKM Partners, said in a note this week that stock markets usually, but not always, peak after a yield curve inversion. Peter Boockvar, chief …

Stock Indexes Drop As Bond Market Flashes Recession Warning
5 years, 9 months ago

Stock Indexes Drop As Bond Market Flashes Recession Warning

NPR  

Stock Indexes Drop As Bond Market Flashes Recession Warning Enlarge this image toggle caption Spencer Platt/Getty Images Spencer Platt/Getty Images The stock market tumbled Friday as investors digested an ominous warning sign: Interest rates on long-term government debt fell below the rate on short-term bills. "We don't see that occur that often, but when it does, it's almost always bad …

Fed official warns of US recession risk if rate hikes continue
6 years ago

Fed official warns of US recession risk if rate hikes continue

Live Mint  

Washington: The US economy is in good shape but could be pushed into recession if the central bank goes “too far” in raising interest rates, a senior US Federal Reserve official said Wednesday. James Bullard, president of the St Louis Federal Reserve Bank, one of 12 in the Fed system and a voting member of the policy committee this year, …

Opinion | 14,889,930,106,680 reasons to fear recession
6 years ago

Opinion | 14,889,930,106,680 reasons to fear recession

Hindustan Times  

Traders and investors will be glad to see the back of 2018. Talking about a recession It’s clear that one of the fundamental worries spooking investors is that the period of coordinated global growth that propelled stock markets higher in recent years is coming to an end. Europe stumbles Europe has seen growth falter this year, with Italy’s political crisis …

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