Opinion | 14,889,930,106,680 reasons to fear recession
6 years ago

Opinion | 14,889,930,106,680 reasons to fear recession

Hindustan Times  

Traders and investors will be glad to see the back of 2018. Talking about a recession It’s clear that one of the fundamental worries spooking investors is that the period of coordinated global growth that propelled stock markets higher in recent years is coming to an end. Europe stumbles Europe has seen growth falter this year, with Italy’s political crisis and Germany’s diesel vehicle emissions scandal taking their toll. Relying on China China came to the global economy’s rescue in the wake of the financial crisis, but it is starting to pay the price for increasing its debt to create additional GDP growth. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has trimmed its forecast for number of potential Fed rate increases in 2019; billionaire fund manager Paul Tudor Jones said earlier this month that he’s not expecting any additional tightening from the US central bank next year.

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History of this topic

Bond Vigilantes Are Putting Governments on Notice
2 weeks, 2 days ago

Bond Vigilantes Are Putting Governments on Notice

Live Mint  

-- On a rather quiet final Friday of the year, I used my Bloomberg Terminal to check how key government bond yields in advanced economies have changed in 2024. As part of the general move up, the US 10-year Treasury yield, a global benchmark, rose by 0.75 percentage point during the year to 4.63% last week, near its 2024 high …

U.K. exits recession with better-than-expected 0.6% GDP growth
8 months ago

U.K. exits recession with better-than-expected 0.6% GDP growth

The Hindu  

The data will be welcome news for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak who said the economy had “turned a corner” Britain's economy grew by the most in nearly three years in the first quarter of 2024, ending the shallow recession it entered in the second half of last year and delivering a boost to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak ahead of an …

Recession has struck some of world’s top economies; US keeps defying expectations
10 months, 4 weeks ago

Recession has struck some of world’s top economies; US keeps defying expectations

New Indian Express  

Several unique characteristics of the US economy have sheltered it from recessionary storms, analysts say. The US government provided about $5 trillion in pandemic aid in 2020-2021, far more than overseas counterparts, which left most households in much better financial shape and supported consumer spending well into 2023. “But also the structure of our economy is so much different.” Americans …

Market bets for 2024 thrown into chaos by US recession conundrum
1 year, 1 month ago

Market bets for 2024 thrown into chaos by US recession conundrum

The Hindu  

Investment banks and asset managers have wildly varying stock market and currency calls for 2024, reflecting deep division over whether the U.S. economy will enter a long-heralded recession and drag the world with it. Amundi, Europe's largest asset manager, now expects a U.S. recession in the first half of 2024, meaning the group is negative on the dollar and likes …

UK economy in ‘horrible bind’ as recession looms, say experts
1 year, 2 months ago

UK economy in ‘horrible bind’ as recession looms, say experts

The Independent  

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inbox Get our free View from Westminster email Get our free View from Westminster email SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. The IFS said there was little room for the tax cuts wanted by Tory MPs …

UK ‘will fall into recession’ following bond market chaos
1 year, 7 months ago

UK ‘will fall into recession’ following bond market chaos

The Telegraph  

Britain will fall into recession by the end of this year or early next year, a top City investment chief has predicted, following the bond market turmoil. Luke Hickmore, investment director at asset manager Abrdn, said the "real surprise" of rising core inflation in Britain's economy would force the Bank of England into action on interest rates. Mr Hickmore told …

Germany economy shrinks in first quarter, signaling one definition of recession
1 year, 7 months ago

Germany economy shrinks in first quarter, signaling one definition of recession

Associated Press  

BERLIN — The German economy shrank unexpectedly in the first three months of this year, marking the second quarter of contraction that is one definition of recession. Two consecutive quarters of contraction is a common definition of recession, though economists on the euro area business cycle dating committee use a broader set of data, including employment figures. Employment in the …

UK economy to avoid recession but inflation still a worry, IMF says
1 year, 7 months ago

UK economy to avoid recession but inflation still a worry, IMF says

Associated Press  

LONDON — The British economy will avoid falling into recession this year, according to upgraded growth forecasts Tuesday from the International Monetary Fund. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said at a press briefing in London that the latest assessment reflects “favorably” on the U.K. in comparison to other countries in the Group of Seven leading industrial nations. Despite the more …

UK avoided recession last year by narrowest of margins. It might not be so lucky in 2023
1 year, 11 months ago

UK avoided recession last year by narrowest of margins. It might not be so lucky in 2023

CNN  

London CNN — The UK economy flatlined in the last quarter of 2022, meaning that it just managed to avoid falling into a recession. “No recession on the pedantic definition of two consecutive quarters of falling GDP, but a calamitous performance nonetheless,” Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, tweeted. “The UK still is the ‘only’ G7 country in …

‘Turning point’: IMF raises 2023 world growth forecast to 2.9%, 1st in a year
1 year, 11 months ago

‘Turning point’: IMF raises 2023 world growth forecast to 2.9%, 1st in a year

Hindustan Times  

Global growth is set to be higher than expected this year, the IMF said Monday, raising its forecast on surprisingly strong consumption and investment while China's lifting of zero-Covid restrictions provides another boost. The International Monetary Fund expects the world economy to expand 2.9 percent this year, slowing from 2022 to a rate that remains weak by historical standards, said …

Explained: Why Europe is likely to escape recession but the UK is in trouble
1 year, 11 months ago

Explained: Why Europe is likely to escape recession but the UK is in trouble

Firstpost  

The brighter prediction comes as a survey showed Europe’s economy growing for the first time since June and in the backdrop of lower inflation, improved supply chains, and the recent reopening of China’s COVID-scarred economy. EU economic commissioner Paolo Gentiloni was quoted as saying by Reuters earlier in January that although the bloc’s economic situation “is still uncertain … we …

Germany will not fall into recession, insists Scholz
1 year, 11 months ago

Germany will not fall into recession, insists Scholz

The Telegraph  

Germany will avoid a recession this year, Chancellor Olaf Scholz has insisted, despite the energy crisis which has ravaged its economy. Mr Scholz said that new liquefied natural gas terminals on the Baltic and North Sea coasts would help cushion the blow from the energy crisis on Germany’s crucial manufacturing sector. “I’m absolutely convinced that this will not happen – …

What recession? Consumers, businesses of this country signal optimism
2 years ago

What recession? Consumers, businesses of this country signal optimism

Live Mint  

Real-time indicators and surveys point to the health of consumer spending and business investment. Make UK’s survey this week showed that manufacturers’ investment plans have held up in recent months, with executives planning to pump money into new products and energy efficiency. What’s really noticeable at the moment is confidence is as bad as the beginning of lockdown, yet the …

World Bank warning: Global economy is at risk of recession
2 years ago

World Bank warning: Global economy is at risk of recession

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Read our privacy policy The global economy will come …

World economy to grow 3.1% this year, down from 5.9% : OECD
2 years, 1 month ago

World economy to grow 3.1% this year, down from 5.9% : OECD

Al Jazeera  

While not predicting a global recession, the OECD said it was ‘a very, very challenging outlook’ for this year and next. Hobbled by high interest rates, punishing inflation and Russia’s war against Ukraine, the world economy is expected to eke out only modest growth this year and to expand even more tepidly in 2023. In the OECD’s estimation, the world …

The UK economy is sliding into recession and Europe is set to follow
2 years, 2 months ago

The UK economy is sliding into recession and Europe is set to follow

CNN  

London CNN Business — The UK economy shrank in the third quarter, signaling the start of a recession that is likely to hit Europe next. “Lower consumer spending appetite is likely to help push GDP into a second-straight contraction during the fourth quarter,” James Smith, developed markets economist at ING, said in a note on Friday. “As inflation keeps cutting …

Britain ‘step closer to recession’ after economy shrank in August
2 years, 3 months ago

Britain ‘step closer to recession’ after economy shrank in August

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Read our privacy policy Britain’s economy unexpectedly shrank in …

Europe's largest economy Germany will fall into recession in 2023: OCED
2 years, 3 months ago

Europe's largest economy Germany will fall into recession in 2023: OCED

Firstpost  

Germany is facing soaring inflation, particularly in energy prices, after Russia cut gas supplies through the Nord Stream pipeline as tensions mount over the Ukraine war New Delhi: Europe’s largest economy Germany will fall into recession in 2023, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said on Monday. “Pessimism regarding the coming months has grown decidedly.” Energy prices spike as …

Europe heading for recession as cost-of-living crisis deepens
2 years, 4 months ago

Europe heading for recession as cost-of-living crisis deepens

The Hindu  

The eurozone is almost certainly entering a recession, with surveys on Monday showing a deepening cost-of-living crisis and a gloomy outlook that is keeping consumers wary of spending. "The PMI surveys signal that the euro area is entering recession earlier than we previously thought, led by its largest economy Germany, and we now see the euro area 'enjoying' a longer, …

40 Per Cent Chance Of Recession In US, Other Key Economies Face High Risk: Report
2 years, 5 months ago

40 Per Cent Chance Of Recession In US, Other Key Economies Face High Risk: Report

ABP News  

A latest poll of economists have hinted that the global economy is facing serious threats of a slowdown with some key economies at high risk of recession. The US inflation which is at a four-decade high of 9.1 per cent, is not expected to cool to the Fed's 2 per cent target until at least 2024. According to the Reuters …

Nomura Says Many Major Economies Will Hit Recession In 2023
2 years, 6 months ago

Nomura Says Many Major Economies Will Hit Recession In 2023

News 18  

A report by Nomura Holdings Inc revealed many major economies will enter recessions over the next 12 months. Nomura said the Eurozone, the UK, Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia and the US will fall into recession in the research note published by Rob Subbaraman and Si Ying Toh. In the US, Nomura predicted a shallow recession but a long one …

The recession we have been dreading is about to strike
2 years, 6 months ago

The recession we have been dreading is about to strike

The Telegraph  

“We expect the economy to struggle under the weight of higher interest rates and to enter a short recessionary period at the end of the year, extending into the first quarter of 2023.” Martin Beck, chief economic adviser to the EY Item Club, says “the retail sector is already effectively in recession” with the damage spreading as inflation combines with …

What is a recession, and how scared should we be?
2 years, 8 months ago

What is a recession, and how scared should we be?

CNN  

New York CNN Business — Around the world, warning signs of a recession are flashing. “We will get a major recession,” Deutsche Bank economists warned last month, staking out the more bearish position on Wall Street. Bank of America, in the still-grim-but-less-dire camp, said the mood in financial markets has been “recessionary.” Goldman Sachs is among the more optimistic of …

'Decent chance' of economic downturn in Australia, as experts predict US recession by 2024
2 years, 8 months ago

'Decent chance' of economic downturn in Australia, as experts predict US recession by 2024

ABC  

When America sneezes, the world catches a cold – as the old saying goes. Money markets are betting the Fed will announce outsized rate hikes at its next few meetings – and that its benchmark interest rate will soar to 3.2 per cent in a year's time. The source of this panic was a recession signal from the US government …

EXPLAINED: Why Bond Yields In US May Be Warning Of A Recession
2 years, 9 months ago

EXPLAINED: Why Bond Yields In US May Be Warning Of A Recession

News 18  

One of the more reliable warning signals for an economic recession is starting to shine. The “yield curve” is watched for clues to how the bond market is feeling about the US economy’s long-term prospects. When yields for short-term Treasurys are higher than yields for long-term ones, market watchers call it an “inverted yield curve.” And when that chart has …

EXPLAINER: Why bond yields may be warning of a recession
2 years, 9 months ago

EXPLAINER: Why bond yields may be warning of a recession

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. The “yield curve” is watched for clues to how …

EXPLAINER: Why bond yields may be warning of a recession
2 years, 9 months ago

EXPLAINER: Why bond yields may be warning of a recession

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. The “yield curve” is watched for clues to how …

Fading hopes of big US spending pull down yields overseas
4 years, 2 months ago

Fading hopes of big US spending pull down yields overseas

Live Mint  

The election-induced drop in Treasury yields rippled overseas, dragging down borrowing costs in Europe as investors wrote off hopes that a big U.S. spending package could give the global economy a jolt. German 10-year yields hovered around their lowest levels since March on Thursday, dropping to minus 0.657% in early trading before rebounding to minus 0.636%, slightly above Wednesday’s close, …

UK recession is worst of any major economy
4 years, 5 months ago

UK recession is worst of any major economy

CNN  

London CNN Business — UK economic output shrank by 20.4% in the second quarter of 2020, the worst quarterly slump on record, pushing the country into the deepest recession of any major global economy. But while there are difficult choices to be made ahead, we will get through this, and I can assure people that nobody will be left without …

Parts of financial markets are pricing in a global recession
4 years, 10 months ago

Parts of financial markets are pricing in a global recession

CNN  

London CNN Business — A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. But it warned Friday that “larger revisions may be required” if shutdowns related to the coronavirus drag on, or “if more draconian actions are needed in the event of a global pandemic.” “Our scenarios suggest that the latter could push the global …

Europe’s stagnant economy is vulnerable to a shock from China
4 years, 11 months ago

Europe’s stagnant economy is vulnerable to a shock from China

CNN  

London CNN Business — Recession fears are stalking Europe again after Germany’s economy flatlined at the end of 2019. Weakness in the world’s fourth largest economy reverberated across the eurozone, where growth slumped to a seven-year low of 0.1% in final quarter of last year. “The economy should be about to turn a corner, but the coronavirus now means that …

Recession is not right around the corner, Fed official says
5 years, 2 months ago

Recession is not right around the corner, Fed official says

CNN  

New York CNN Business — The American economy is experiencing turbulence. “Negative interest rates are very hard on institutions like community banks that rely heavily on deposit taking,” Daly said. “That really makes their profitability suffer…That would be a pretty heavy lift, in my mind.” Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, said in September that he doesn’t think …

With the warning lights flashing, how likely is a global recession?
5 years, 2 months ago

With the warning lights flashing, how likely is a global recession?

The Independent  

Just how likely is a global recession? The aforementioned 3 per cent represents a marked slowdown from last year’s 3.6 per cent. Oxford Economics recently identified seven of them: world industrial output, global stocks, commodity prices, corporate bond spreads, US credit standards, a US earnings recession and the US bond yield curve. Despite the fear that’s been spread through the …

Germany could spend big to counter recession. But Europe shouldn’t hold its breath
5 years, 4 months ago

Germany could spend big to counter recession. But Europe shouldn’t hold its breath

CNN  

London CNN Business — With storm clouds gathering over the economy, what Europe really needs is for Germany to open up its pocketbook and start spending big. “One big bang to support the economy — that is not something the government is willing to do right now,” said Carsten Brzeski, chief German economist at the Dutch bank ING. “Germany’s recession …

Opinion | The world could be staring at a long era of deflation
5 years, 4 months ago

Opinion | The world could be staring at a long era of deflation

Live Mint  

There are three games of chicken currently in play in the US. The second is associated with US President Donald Trump’s constant dissatisfaction with the US Federal Reserve on the need to cut real interest rates more aggressively, though a rate cut happened last quarter and another seems in sight. The third, which seems more perplexing, is the Fed’s internal …

Wall Street’s favorite recession signal suggests the economy is in trouble
5 years, 4 months ago

Wall Street’s favorite recession signal suggests the economy is in trouble

CNN  

New York CNN Business — Wall Street’s favorite fortuneteller is telling an ominous story about the fate of America’s economy. If things continue to escalate, that poses a real threat to the business cycle.” James McCann, senior global economist at Aberdeen Standard Investments “Anything over 30% is very bad,” said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. “Everyone either looks at …

Why people should not get too worked up about recession fears
5 years, 4 months ago

Why people should not get too worked up about recession fears

CNN  

New York CNN Business — Trade war fears are rattling investors. There is not enough evidence to suggest we are on the immediate verge of recession,” said Steve Chiavarone, a portfolio manager and equity strategist at Federated Investors. “Fears of a near-term recession are overblown,” said KC Mathews, chief investment officer with UMB Bank. “It’s extremely important for investors to …

Recession fears: Five risks facing the US economy
5 years, 4 months ago

Recession fears: Five risks facing the US economy

CNN  

Washington CNN — Fears of a brewing global recession were renewed this week as markets whipsawed over President Donald Trump’s trade war with China as well as disappointing economic data from both Germany and China. The US economy, for now, remains on solid ground with strong consumer spending propping up the country’s longest expansion, now in its 11th year, despite …

Inverted yield curve: Does the bond market really signal we’re heading for a recession?
5 years, 5 months ago

Inverted yield curve: Does the bond market really signal we’re heading for a recession?

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Please enter a valid email address Please enter a valid email address SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. An "inverted yield curve" may …

Recession may be coming a lot sooner than anyone thought (Opinion)
5 years, 5 months ago

Recession may be coming a lot sooner than anyone thought (Opinion)

CNN  

Editor’s Note: Sven Henrich is founder and lead market strategist at NorthmanTrader. But just one day later, global stock markets sold off hard due to ever-weakening economic data in Europe and Asia and further yield curve inversions. For the 10 yield curve inversions since 1956, the S&P 500 peaked within approximately three months of the inversion six times. A sudden …

The bond market smells recession as global stress rises
5 years, 5 months ago

The bond market smells recession as global stress rises

Associated Press  

NEW YORK — Compared to the free-swinging and sometimes emotional stock market, the bond market is supposed to be the sober and measured one. The last inversion of this part of the yield curve began in December 2005, two years before the Great Recession tore through the global economy. Some market watchers also say the yield curve may be less …

Recession watch: 5 of the world’s biggest economies are on the brink
5 years, 5 months ago

Recession watch: 5 of the world’s biggest economies are on the brink

CNN  

London CNN Business — Five big economies are at risk of recession. “The bottom line is that the German economy is teetering on the edge of recession,” said Andrew Kenningham, chief Europe economist at Capital Economics. China’s massive economy is growing at the slowest pace in nearly three decades as the country wages a prolonged trade war with the United …

US recession fears are growing, survey of economists finds
5 years, 7 months ago

US recession fears are growing, survey of economists finds

CNN  

New York CNN Business — America’s business leaders are growing more worried that the United States will enter a recession by the end of 2020. “Increased trade protectionism is considered the primary downwide risk to growth by a majority of the respondents,” Gregory Daco, chief US economist for Oxford Economics, said in a statement. Other notable findings from the National …

Bond rally: The bond market is freaking out. Here’s why that matters
5 years, 7 months ago

Bond rally: The bond market is freaking out. Here’s why that matters

CNN  

New York CNN Business — The bond market is once again sending a big fat warning sign about the US economy. Inverted yield curve is often a sign of bad things to come The yield on the 3-month US bond is currently higher than the 10-year, hovering around 2.35%. Yields sliding in rest of the world But bond yields around …

Italy falls into recession after economy shrinks by 0.2%
5 years, 11 months ago

Italy falls into recession after economy shrinks by 0.2%

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Read our privacy policy Italy has fallen into recession …

Is Germany’s golden decade coming to an end?
5 years, 11 months ago

Is Germany’s golden decade coming to an end?

The Economist  

F OR MOST of the past decade Germany has been a shining exception to Europe’s economic weakness. After the economy contracted by 0.2% in the third quarter of last year, industrial production declined by 1.9% month-on-month in November, much worse than the expected growth of 0.3%, prompting fears that the country was about to enter a technical recession. The federal …

Recession fears are stalking Germany
6 years ago

Recession fears are stalking Germany

CNN  

London CNN Business — Europe’s largest economy may be in recession for the first time since the region’s debt crisis. Carsten Brzeski, ING’s chief economist in Germany, said the data showed that the risk of recession had “clearly increased.” Oxford Economics downgraded its growth forecast for the fourth quarter to 0% and said recession was now “a reasonably high risk.” …

Global growth to slow to 3.5% in 2019: OECD
6 years, 1 month ago

Global growth to slow to 3.5% in 2019: OECD

Live Mint  

Paris: Trade tensions and higher interest rates are slowing the global economy, though for now there are no signs of a sharp downturn, the OECD said on Wednesday, lowering its outlook for next year. The global growth slowdown would be worst in non-OECD countries, with many emerging market economies likely to see capital outflows as the US Federal Reserve gradually …

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