Why are monsoons difficult to predict?
5 years, 8 months ago

Why are monsoons difficult to predict?

The Hindu  

The story so far: The southwest monsoon made a late entry into Kerala on June 7, after a delay of nearly a week. The monsoon branch that enters eastern India, around the same time as the southern branch, is relatively better performing thanks to convective currents formed in the Bay of Bengal. These essentially involved identifying climate parameters linked to the performance of the monsoon — for instance, the sea surface temperature gradient between North Atlantic and North Pacific, the volume of warm water in the equatorial Pacific, the Eurasian snow cover. Their values in February and March are correlated to values of actual rainfall over a hundred years and then, using statistical techniques, extrapolated to forecast a particular year’s monsoon. Given that June contributes only 17cm or about 20% of the monsoon rainfall and is known to progress in spurts, farmers have already delayed sowing and relying on crop varieties that grow relatively quickly.

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