
Why are monsoons difficult to predict?
The HinduThe story so far: The southwest monsoon made a late entry into Kerala on June 7, after a delay of nearly a week. The monsoon branch that enters eastern India, around the same time as the southern branch, is relatively better performing thanks to convective currents formed in the Bay of Bengal. These essentially involved identifying climate parameters linked to the performance of the monsoon — for instance, the sea surface temperature gradient between North Atlantic and North Pacific, the volume of warm water in the equatorial Pacific, the Eurasian snow cover. Their values in February and March are correlated to values of actual rainfall over a hundred years and then, using statistical techniques, extrapolated to forecast a particular year’s monsoon. Given that June contributes only 17cm or about 20% of the monsoon rainfall and is known to progress in spurts, farmers have already delayed sowing and relying on crop varieties that grow relatively quickly.
History of this topic

Normal monsoon likely as neutral El Nino forecast
New Indian Express
IMD forecasts above normal temperature, heatwave days
New Indian Express
The year of extremes: From a ruthless summer to bountiful rains
The Hindu
Extreme Rainfall Events Soar, Droughts Get Longer in India
Hindustan Times
At 28%, Punjab’s rain deficiency highest in country
Hindustan Times
Monsoon withdraws from parts of Rajasthan
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Bengaluru sees unusually dry September amid high temperatures, IMD predicts rainfall ahead: Report
Hindustan Times
More rains predicted for Delhi today, minimum temp at 24.4 deg Celsius
Live Mint
Andhra Floods: Southern India in Deluge This Monsoon With Seasonal Rains in Excess of 26%
News 18
India likely to experience above normal rainfall in September: IMD
Deccan Chronicle
India Likely to Experience Above Normal Rainfall in September: IMD
News 18
IMD predicts above normal rainfall in India in September month | Here are DETAILS
India TV News
‘Monsoon likely to extend, threatening ripe summer crops’
The Hindu
Monsoon remains active in August; more rain likely in September first week
Hindustan Times
Active monsoon boosts rainfall in northwest India by 36 per cent in August: IMD report
India TV News
Weather Update: Rain Likely In Delhi Today As IMD Predicts More Showers In North India — Check Alert
ABP News
After June deficit, August logs 28% excess rainfall within 2 weeks
Hindustan Times
Less than normal rainfall in 6 northeast states; Manipur deficit highest at 48%
Hindustan Times
A.P. likely to receive normal to above normal rainfall in August
The Hindu
Above normal rainfall predicted in India in August, September: IMD
Hindustan Times
IMD predicts ‘India to record above-normal rainfall in August and September’
The Hindu
Heavy rains ahead in second half of southwest monsoon, says IMD
New Indian Express
IMD weather update: Heavy rains forecast for Kerala, Delhi
Hindustan Times
Monsoon distribution remains skewed in July
Hindustan Times
Heavy rain likely over northwest and east India: IMD
Hindustan Times
Weather updates: Wet spell in Delhi causes traffic disruptions; IMD forecasts heavy rain across these states
Hindustan Times
Subdued monsoon leaves climate agencies re-evaluating forecasts
New Indian Express
Karnataka records 2% rainfall deficit in June, predicted to normalize in July
New Indian Express
Monsoon covers entire India six days ahead of schedule: IMD
The Hindu
Monsoon covers entire India 6 days before schedule, rain alert in Delhi today
India Today
Odisha to receive above normal rains in July: IMD forecast
New Indian Express
Monsoon has covered entire India six days ahead of normal date: IMD
India TV News
‘Above normal’ rainfall expected in July: IMD
The Hindu
Telangana to have normal to above normal rainfall in July: IMD
The Hindu
Weather Updates Today: From Haridwar to Dwarka, Monsoon Causes Devastation Everywhere With Floods
ABP News
Heavy rain likely over most parts of the country till Thursday
Live Mint
IMD warns of heavy rainfall in northwest and northeast India for next 5 days
The Hindu
Orange alert in Delhi as IMD predicts heavy downpour for weekend
Hindustan Times
Learning to live with shifts in monsoon
Hindustan Times
IMD predicts monsoon rains across THESE states in north India | Know details
India TV News
Monsoon tracker: IMD says monsoon expected to cover most parts of northwest India between June 27 to July 3
Live Mint
Climate change makes India’s monsoons erratic. Can farmers still find a way to prosper?
Associated Press
Monsoon shakes off slump, to bring rain relief in sweltering north India
India Today
India's agriculture faces concerns as monsoon rains a fifth below normal
Hindustan Times
Sluggish monsoon leaves north and east India dry
New Indian Express
India's fizzling monsoon could prolong heatwave in north: Report
India TV News
IMD predicts heavy rainfall in Maharashtra and Karnataka as ‘southwest monsoon’ sets in. Details here
Live Mint
IMD issues heavy rain alerts for multiple states on these dates
Hindustan Times
Heavy Rain Likely In Bengaluru & Hyderabad, Heatwave In Delhi
News 18
IMD predicts above normal rain in the country this monsoon
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