US economists see higher wages feeding inflation for 3 years
3 years ago

US economists see higher wages feeding inflation for 3 years

Al Jazeera  

A new survey shows nearly three-quarters of US economists don’t see inflation falling to the Fed’s target 2-percent rate until the second half of 2023 or later. Nearly three quarters – 71 percent – of the 48 economists surveyed see the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge – Personal Consumption Expenditures minus food and energy – not falling to or below the Fed’s 2-percent year-over-year target rate “until the second half of 2023 or later,” said NABE vice president Julia Coronado who is also the founder and president, MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC. “Two-thirds of the panel expect wage increases will keep inflation elevated over the next three years,” said survey chair Yelena Shulyatyeva, who is also senior US economists with Bloomberg. A faster tapering could prepare the ground for an inflation-cooling interest rate increase as soon as the first half of next year – rather than the second half as previously expected.

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History of this topic

Column: American economists and consumers got inflation wrong during its recent surge. They still do
2 months, 3 weeks ago

Column: American economists and consumers got inflation wrong during its recent surge. They still do

LA Times  

Sen. JD Vance tried to blame the $4 price of a dozen eggs on Kamala Harris in this campaign video. The “strong policy response” Powell referred to was the Fed’s raising of short-term interest rates 11 times, a total of 5.25 percentage points, from March 2022 through July 2023. In November 2021, however, Powell told Congress that it was “probably …

Paychecks grew more slowly this spring, a sign inflation may keep cooling
4 months, 3 weeks ago

Paychecks grew more slowly this spring, a sign inflation may keep cooling

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Pay and benefits for America’s workers grew more slowly in the April-June quarter than in the first three months of the year, a trend that could keep price pressures in check and encourage the inflation-fighters at the Federal Reserve. Compensation as measured by the government’s Employment Cost Index rose 0.9% in the second quarter, down from a 1.2% …

Wages are rising 3.2% above inflation - the highest in nearly three years - as prices subside and jobs market holds steady... despite Rachel Reeves' grim claims that the economy is worse than she thou
5 months ago

Wages are rising 3.2% above inflation - the highest in nearly three years - as prices subside and jobs market holds steady... despite Rachel Reeves' grim claims that the economy is worse than she thou

Daily Mail  

Wages are rising 3.2 per cent above inflation with the jobs market holding steady, according to new figures today. Regular pay is increasing at the fastest pace in nearly three years relative to prices, after CPI inflation returned to the Bank of England's 2 per cent target. Wages are rising 3.2 per cent above inflation with the jobs market holding …

US inflation eases to 3.3% in May, defying expectations for slight rise
6 months, 1 week ago

US inflation eases to 3.3% in May, defying expectations for slight rise

Hindustan Times  

Stock markets surged Wednesday after data showed US inflation slowed in May, raising hopes the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later this year. "The cool inflation numbers should boost investor confidence for a Fed rate cut in the second half of 2024," said Bret Kenwell, US investment analyst at trading platform eToro. With inflation slowing and other recent data …

Fed’s preferred inflation gauge shows price pressures stayed elevated last month
7 months, 4 weeks ago

Fed’s preferred inflation gauge shows price pressures stayed elevated last month

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — A measure of inflation closely tracked by the Federal Reserve remained uncomfortably high in March, likely reinforcing the Fed’s reluctance to cut interest rates anytime soon and underscoring a burden for President Joe Biden’s re-election bid. Friday’s inflation data showed that excluding volatile food and energy costs, “core” prices rose by an elevated 0.3% from February to March, …

Relief for Brits as wages outstrip inflation by biggest margin since 2021 despite signs jobs market is weakening… but inactivity crisis deepens
8 months, 1 week ago

Relief for Brits as wages outstrip inflation by biggest margin since 2021 despite signs jobs market is weakening… but inactivity crisis deepens

Daily Mail  

Brits have been offered some much-needed relief as figures showed wages outstripping inflation by the biggest margin in two and a half years. Regular pay rose by 2.1 per cent year-on-year in real terms in the three months to February. The Office for National Statistics said the jobless rate jumped to 4.2 per cent in the three months to February …

US inflation unexpectedly rises to 3.2%, dampening hopes of Fed's interest rate cuts in March
9 months, 1 week ago

US inflation unexpectedly rises to 3.2%, dampening hopes of Fed's interest rate cuts in March

Hindustan Times  

US consumer prices witnessed a surge in monthly and annual rates in February, as per the inflation figures issued by the Labour Department on Tuesday. The consumer price index, a frequently followed inflation indicator, climbed 3.2 percent annually in February and 0.4 percent last month alone. Since March 2022, the Fed has progressively raised interest rates through periodic adjustments, bringing …

US worker paycheck growth slowed late last year, pointing to cooling in a very strong job market
10 months, 3 weeks ago

US worker paycheck growth slowed late last year, pointing to cooling in a very strong job market

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Pay and benefits for America’s workers grew in the final three months of last year at the slowest pace in two and a half years, a trend that could affect the Federal Reserve’s decision about when to begin cutting interest rates. “Not great news for our pay checks, but good news for inflation and the prospect of meaningful” …

Americans’ economic outlook brightens as inflation slows and wages outpace prices
11 months ago

Americans’ economic outlook brightens as inflation slows and wages outpace prices

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — After an extended period of gloom, Americans are starting to feel better about inflation and the economy — a trend that could sustain consumer spending, fuel economic growth and potentially affect President Joe Biden’s political fortunes. A survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that Americans’ inflation expectations have reached their lowest point in nearly …

Americans’ economic outlook brightens as inflation slows and wages outpace prices
11 months ago

Americans’ economic outlook brightens as inflation slows and wages outpace prices

LA Times  

A customer checks prices while shopping at a grocery store last week in Wheeling, Ill. A typical basket of groceries now costs 20% more than in February 2021, just before inflation began to take off. After an extended period of gloom, Americans are starting to feel better about inflation and the economy — a trend that could sustain consumer spending, …

Inflation ticks up modestly to 3.2% but core products continue to cool - sparking speculation the Fed could pause relentless interest rate hikes in September
1 year, 4 months ago

Inflation ticks up modestly to 3.2% but core products continue to cool - sparking speculation the Fed could pause relentless interest rate hikes in September

Daily Mail  

Inflation in the US has ticked up to a 3.2 percent annual rate - rising slightly in July from June's 3 percent annual increase. Inflation in the US has ticked up to a 3.2 percent annual rate - rising slightly in July from June's 3 percent annual increase The 3.2 percent annual inflation rate is a sharp decrease from the …

Some good news! Inflation cools down to 3% in reaching distance of Fed's 2% target
1 year, 5 months ago

Some good news! Inflation cools down to 3% in reaching distance of Fed's 2% target

Daily Mail  

Inflation in the US has slowed to a 3 percent annual rate - its slowest pace in more than two years. The latest Consumer Price Index released Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that inflation grew by 0.2 percent in June - after increasing 0.1 percent in May. The 3 percent annual inflation rate is a sharp decrease …

Hiltzik: The vanishing of wage inflation
1 year, 6 months ago

Hiltzik: The vanishing of wage inflation

LA Times  

Fed Chairman Jerome H. Powell has been fixated on pushing unemployment higher, even though it has no effect on inflation. some softening of labor market conditions,” Powell said in his most recent news conference, following the Fed’s latest interest rate hike on May 3. Powell treated every statistic showing labor market strength — low unemployment, “excess demand” for workers, persistent …

Inflation stayed high last month, compounding the challenges facing the U.S. economy
1 year, 7 months ago

Inflation stayed high last month, compounding the challenges facing the U.S. economy

NPR  

Inflation stayed high last month, compounding the challenges facing the U.S. economy Enlarge this image toggle caption Justin Sullivan/Getty Images Justin Sullivan/Getty Images Inflation remained stubbornly high last month after more than a year of rising interest rates. "My feeling is that there's a gradual slowdown here, but March seemed a little too good to be true," said Omair Sharif, …

Extra billions flowing into budget but real wages not tipped to grow for another year
1 year, 7 months ago

Extra billions flowing into budget but real wages not tipped to grow for another year

ABC  

Workers will have to wait another year before their wages outstrip the rising cost of living, according to Treasury forecasts to be released next week. Key points: Unemployment will be 3.5 per cent this year, rising to 4.25 per cent in June 2024 Higher commodity prices will also add extra billions to the budget's bottom line The greater revenue has …

Will wages outpace inflation for long? It depends on the job
1 year, 7 months ago

Will wages outpace inflation for long? It depends on the job

CNN  

Washington, DC CNN — Wages are now finally beating inflation, according to the latest quarterly data on wage growth. Workers who switched jobs are still raking in higher wages than those who choose to stay; and employees in industries struggling to hire, such as leisure and hospitality, are also enjoying fatter paychecks, economists said. “The folks who left one company …

US hiring slows in March as world's largest economy shows signs of cooling as authorities battle inflation
1 year, 8 months ago

US hiring slows in March as world's largest economy shows signs of cooling as authorities battle inflation

Firstpost  

The labour market data is highly followed for its possible influence on the Federal Reserve’s policy choices, but analysts predict the most recent results will not be enough to cause the central bank to suspend its interest rate rises Washington, United States: US employment growth slowed for the second month in a row in March, according to government statistics released …

US adds a healthy 236,000 jobs despite Fed’s rate hikes
1 year, 8 months ago

US adds a healthy 236,000 jobs despite Fed’s rate hikes

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — America’s employers added a solid 236,000 jobs in March, suggesting that the economy remains on solid footing despite the nine interest rate hikes the Federal Reserve has imposed over the past year in its drive to tame inflation. We do see that the job market is cooling, but it’s still resilient.’’ In another sign that might reassure the …

An unexpected job surge confounds the Fed’s economic models
1 year, 10 months ago

An unexpected job surge confounds the Fed’s economic models

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Does the Federal Reserve have it wrong? “Like $20 bills on the sidewalk and free lunches, falling inflation paired with falling unemployment is the stuff of economics fiction.” In economic models used by the Fed and most mainstream economists, a job market with strong hiring and a low unemployment rate typically fuels higher inflation. Chair Jerome Powell has …

US adds a surprisingly strong 517,000 jobs despite Fed hikes
1 year, 10 months ago

US adds a surprisingly strong 517,000 jobs despite Fed hikes

Al Jazeera  

The labour force participation rate is at its highest since March but still below pre-pandemic levels. Employers in the United States added 517,000 jobs in January, a surprisingly strong gain in the face of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive drive to slow growth and tame inflation with higher interest rates. Friday’s government report added to the picture of a resilient labour …

Wages rise at fastest pace in two decades but fall behind inflation
1 year, 11 months ago

Wages rise at fastest pace in two decades but fall behind inflation

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. The proportion of working-age people who were unemployed also …

Wages rose by an average 3.2% last year, inflation was 10%
1 year, 11 months ago

Wages rose by an average 3.2% last year, inflation was 10%

Dutch News  

Wages rose by an average of 3.2% last year, with the biggest increase – more than 5% – agreed for teachers, national statistics office CBS said on Thursday. Inflation averaged at around 10% last year and the difference between it and the average wage rise is the biggest recorded by the CBS since it started publishing average salary increases in …

Wages rose by an average 3.2% last year, inflation was 10%
1 year, 11 months ago

Wages rose by an average 3.2% last year, inflation was 10%

Dutch News  

Wages rose by an average of 3.2% last year, with the biggest increase – more than 5% – agreed for teachers, national statistics office CBS said on Thursday. Inflation averaged at around 10% last year and the difference between it and the average wage rise is the biggest recorded by the CBS since it started publishing average salary increases in …

A diminished US workforce could lead Fed to keep rates high
2 years ago

A diminished US workforce could lead Fed to keep rates high

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Still eager to hire, America’s employers are posting more job openings than they did before the pandemic struck 2½ years ago. “This labor shortage that we have,” the Fed chair said, “it doesn’t look like it’s going away anytime soon. “It’s hard enough finding workers, but a bench jeweler is a dying breed,” said Moriarty, referring to an …

Inflation boosts U.S. household spending to $433 a month
2 years ago

Inflation boosts U.S. household spending to $433 a month

Daily Mail  

American households are still forking out huge sums of extra cash for the same products as last year as inflation batters the nation. Despite weaker than expected inflation for October American households are still feeling the pinch with household spending rising 7.7 percent at the same time last year to $433 a month The impact on households isn't streamline however, …

US Fed Delivers Another 75bps Rate Hike; Powell Vows to 'Keep At It'
2 years, 3 months ago

US Fed Delivers Another 75bps Rate Hike; Powell Vows to 'Keep At It'

News 18  

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell vowed on Wednesday that he and his fellow policymakers would “keep at” their battle to beat down inflation, as the U.S. central bank hiked interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point for a third straight time and signaled that borrowing costs would keep rising this year. The United States has had a “red hot …

Fed delivers big rate increase, sees another large move this year
2 years, 3 months ago

Fed delivers big rate increase, sees another large move this year

The Hindu  

U.S. central bank raises target interest rate by 75 basis points to 3.00%-3.25% range The Federal Reserve raised its target interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point to a range of 3.00%-3.25% on Wednesday and signaled more large increases to come in new projections showing its policy rate rising to 4.40% by the end of this year before topping …

Why the Fed is reading US labour market wrong
2 years, 3 months ago

Why the Fed is reading US labour market wrong

Live Mint  

At this year’s Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming, US, a major event on the calendars of the world’s central bankers, US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered an uncharacteristically strong message about how the Fed plans to combat today’s high inflation. A strong India decoupling from emerging peers How Enam AMC’s Jiten Doshi picks stocks How Russia snapping gas line …

Lower US job gain in August could aid Fed’s inflation fight
2 years, 3 months ago

Lower US job gain in August could aid Fed’s inflation fight

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — America’s employers added a healthy number of jobs last month, yet slowed their hiring enough to potentially help the Federal Reserve in its fight to reduce raging inflation. “It’s a very positive report and still holds open the possibility for a soft landing,” said Ellen Gaske, an economist at PGIM Fixed Income, referring to the Fed’s goal of …

UK inflation hits 10% as cost-of-living crisis accelerates
2 years, 4 months ago

UK inflation hits 10% as cost-of-living crisis accelerates

CNN  

CNN Business — Inflation in the United Kingdom hit a new 40-year high last month, rising above 10% for the first time since 1982 and piling further pain on households already struggling to pay their bills. Soaring food prices — up 12.7% since July 2021 — were the largest single contributor to the acceleration in inflation, the ONS said. “All …

Wages still increasing, but well below inflation
2 years, 4 months ago

Wages still increasing, but well below inflation

NL Times  

The wage increases employers and trade unions set down in collective labor agreements were again relatively high last month. According to figures from AWVN, the most important advisor to Dutch employers in employment conditions, unions and employers concluded 18 collective labor agreements in July. Due to several late notifications of collective labor agreements, the AWVN adjusted June’s monthly average upward. …

US job growth surges, cooling recession fears
2 years, 4 months ago

US job growth surges, cooling recession fears

Al Jazeera  

The United States unemployment rate is at a 50-year low of 3.5 percent, data showed on Friday. US employers added more than double the number of jobs forecast, illustrating rock-solid labor demand that tempers recession fears and suggests the Federal Reserve will press on with steep interest-rate hikes to thwart inflation. Nonfarm payrolls jumped 528,000 in July, a broad advance …

Inflation and wage data suggest US prices will keep climbing
2 years, 4 months ago

Inflation and wage data suggest US prices will keep climbing

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Inflation surged in June and workers’ average wages accelerated in the spring — signs that Americans won’t likely feel any relief from rising prices anytime soon and that the Federal Reserve will feel compelled to further raise borrowing costs. An inflation gauge closely tracked by the Fed jumped 6.8% in June from a year ago, the government said …

EXPLAINER: Why US inflation is so high, and when it may ease
2 years, 5 months ago

EXPLAINER: Why US inflation is so high, and when it may ease

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Inflation’s relentless surge didn’t merely persist in June. Even if you toss out food and energy prices — which are notoriously volatile and have driven much of the price spike — so-called core inflation soared 5.9% over the past year. The inflation of the 1970s and early 1980s peaked at 14.8% in March 1980 before the Fed exorcized …

US targets inflation with biggest rate hike since 1994
2 years, 6 months ago

US targets inflation with biggest rate hike since 1994

Al Jazeera  

The move raises the short-term federal funds rate, meaning most forms of borrowing will become sharply more expensive. The rate increase announced on Wednesday was the biggest by the US central bank since 1994, and was delivered after recent data showed little progress in its battle to control a sharp spike in prices. With additional rate hikes, policymakers expect their …

Some people benefit from rising inflation, but millions don't. What's your situation?
2 years, 7 months ago

Some people benefit from rising inflation, but millions don't. What's your situation?

ABC  

Inflation and interest rates are rising. It's why a whole genre of stories has appeared in US media — which we haven't seen in Australia yet — dedicated to explaining how businesses can profit from rising inflation. Now, an inflation rate of 5.1 per cent might feel like it's understating things, because prices of some key goods are growing much …

Will lifting the minimum wage worsen inflation and raise interest rates?
2 years, 7 months ago

Will lifting the minimum wage worsen inflation and raise interest rates?

ABC  

Wages have become the latest battleground in the election, with debate raging about how much extra workers can get paid without sending businesses broke and consumer prices soaring. Key points: The Fair Work Commission is due to hand down its annual minimum wage decision in June Unions say 5.5 per cent is a fair increase while employer groups want no …

EXPLAINER: Why US inflation is so high, and when it may ease
2 years, 8 months ago

EXPLAINER: Why US inflation is so high, and when it may ease

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Another month, another four-decade high for inflation. Back in December 2020, the Fed’s policymakers had forecast that consumer inflation would stay below their 2% annual target and end 2021 at around 1.8%. For months, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and some others characterized higher consumer prices as merely “transitory” — the result, mainly, of shipping delays and temporary shortages …

US inflation hit four-decade high in March
2 years, 8 months ago

US inflation hit four-decade high in March

Live Mint  

US inflation accelerated to 8.5% in March, the Labor Department said, a new four-decade high, as surging energy prices and higher food costs hit consumer. “We’re seeing strong inflation momentum across the board, both for goods and services,” Blerina Uruci, U.S. economist at T. Rowe Price Group Inc., said ahead of the report. “They had a little revolt, and more …

US hiring stays strong as jobless rate falls, wages accelerate
2 years, 8 months ago

US hiring stays strong as jobless rate falls, wages accelerate

Al Jazeera  

Nonfarm payrolls increased 431,000 last month after an upwardly revised 750,000 gain in February, US data showed. The U.S. added close to half a million jobs in March and the unemployment rate fell by more than expected, highlighting a robust labor market that’s likely to support aggressive Federal Reserve tightening in the coming months. Nonfarm payrolls increased 431,000 last month …

Most Americans have come out ahead economically in the pandemic, despite inflation
2 years, 10 months ago

Most Americans have come out ahead economically in the pandemic, despite inflation

CNN  

CNN — Public discontent with America’s pandemic-battered economy obscures the good news: Even after inflation, most of the country has been coming out ahead. “For most people,” concludes Michael Strain, who directs economic policy studies at the right-leaning American Enterprise Institute, “the current economic situation is good.” You couldn’t tell that from public opinion, though. A CNN poll last week …

How inflation and tangled supply lines are gripping economy
2 years, 10 months ago

How inflation and tangled supply lines are gripping economy

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Since the pandemic erupted two years ago, Forest Ramsey and his wife, Kelly, have held the line on prices at their gourmet chocolate shop in Louisville, Kentucky. Yet the key trends that have sent prices soaring — higher wages, parts shortages, rent increases, robust consumer spending — won’t likely fade anytime soon. Neil Dutta, an economist at Renaissance …

EXPLAINER: Why US inflation is so high, and when it may ease
2 years, 10 months ago

EXPLAINER: Why US inflation is so high, and when it may ease

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Last year, it was a nasty surprise. In December 2020, the Fed’s policymakers had forecast that consumer inflation would stay below their 2% annual target and end 2021 at around 1.8%. For months, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and others characterized higher consumer prices as merely a “transitory” problem — the result, mainly, of shipping delays and temporary shortages …

US sees highest increase in inflation in 40 years fueled by 7.5% surge in consumer prices
2 years, 10 months ago

US sees highest increase in inflation in 40 years fueled by 7.5% surge in consumer prices

India Today  

U.S. consumer prices rose solidly in January, leading to the biggest annual increase in inflation in 40 years, which could fuel financial markets speculation for a 50 basis points interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve next month. STRONG UNDERLYING INFLATION Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI increased 0.6% last month after rising 0.6% in December. "The …

EXPLAINER: Why US inflation is so high, and when it may ease
2 years, 11 months ago

EXPLAINER: Why US inflation is so high, and when it may ease

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — At first, it didn’t even register as a threat. “Prices are increasing broadly throughout the economy, and the Federal Reserve has been caught off-guard by the extent of inflation,’' said Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial. Barely more than a year ago, the Fed had forecast that consumer prices would end 2021 only about 1.8% higher than …

Question for Fed: Has it waited too long to fight inflation?
2 years, 11 months ago

Question for Fed: Has it waited too long to fight inflation?

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — With inflation surging, unemployment falling and wages rising, some economists are warning that the Federal Reserve may have waited too long to reverse its ultra-low-rate policies — a delay that could put the economy at heightened risk. While Powell has many defenders who applaud the Fed’s willingness to keep interest rates low to help reduce unemployment after the …

Fed sees three rate increases in ’22 as inflation battle begins
3 years ago

Fed sees three rate increases in ’22 as inflation battle begins

The Hindu  

The Federal Reserve, signalling its inflation target has been met, said on Wednesday it would end its pandemic-era bond purchases in March and pave the way for three quarter-percentage-point interest rate increases by the end of 2022 as it exits from policies enacted at the start of the health crisis. In new economic projections released following its policy meeting, Fed …

Fed sees 3 rate hikes next year as it pivots to combat inflation
3 years ago

Fed sees 3 rate hikes next year as it pivots to combat inflation

Al Jazeera  

The United States Federal Reserve said it is accelerating the tapering of its easy-money policies and now sees at least three interest rate hikes by the end of 2022. At the end of its two-day meeting on Wednesday, the Fed said it is keeping its benchmark interest rate near zero – where it has been since the opening days of …

Column: Inflation has spiked. Don’t freak out
3 years, 1 month ago

Column: Inflation has spiked. Don’t freak out

LA Times  

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome H. Powell is in the hot seat over what his board can do about inflation. — Economist Ian Shepherdson Price hikes were seen in “shelter, used cars and trucks, and new vehicles, the indexes for medical care, for household furnishing and operations, and for recreation.” Among the few safe harbors cited by the BLS were airline …

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