Connecting the dots to mitigate a third wave
3 years, 7 months ago

Connecting the dots to mitigate a third wave

The Hindu  

After a long and painful month-and-a-half, confirmed cases of COVID-19 in India have been declining steadily for more than a month. ‘R’ and determinants A simple epidemiologic concept can be used to better understand the second wave and help plan for a potential third wave. R depends on four factors, summarised by the acronym DOTS: the Duration a person is infectious; Opportunities infected individuals have to spread infection to others; the probability Transmission occurs given an opportunity, and the average Susceptibility of a population or subpopulation. With this in mind, increased social mixing and large gatherings that took place in early 2021 also might have helped facilitate a second wave. Finally, the last factor in the DOTS equation is the duration of infectiousness or D. Emerging evidence suggests that the duration of infectiousness could be slightly longer with some new variants.

India Population Potential Variants Transmission Individuals New Variants Dots Second Wave Susceptible Infected Individuals  potential  dots  variants  r  second  wave  population  connecting  mitigate  susceptible  india  transmission  individuals

History of this topic

Will India be able to avert a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic?
3 years, 4 months ago

Will India be able to avert a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic?

The Hindu  

When Soumya Swaminathan, ChiefScientist, World Health Organisation, recently emphasised that there was no clear and definite way of predicting whether and when India would get a third COVID-19 wave, reports in the media reported her as also saying that it was not likely to be like the second wave. Worrying Global Backdrop At close to 1,14,000, the test-confirmed cases per …

'Next Covid wave can be bigger than second wave if...': Randeep Guleria
3 years, 5 months ago

'Next Covid wave can be bigger than second wave if...': Randeep Guleria

India TV News  

Waning immunity, the emergence of a more transmissible coronavirus variant capable of escaping the immunity shield and lockdown relaxations can be the likely causes of a possible third wave of COVID-19, AIIMS Director Randeep Guleria said on Thursday. Speaking at an event, he said the third wave can be mitigated by following Covid-appropriate behaviour such as maintaining social distancing, using …

Covid-19 third wave unlikely to be as severe as second wave: Study
3 years, 6 months ago

Covid-19 third wave unlikely to be as severe as second wave: Study

Live Mint  

New Delhi, Jun 25 A third wave of COVID-19 -- if it occurs -- is unlikely to be as severe as the second wave given the extent of spread of coronavirus infections that has already taken place in the country, according to a study. Presenting a vaccine ramp-up scenario where 40 percent of the population has received two doses within …

Third-wave seems unlikely to be as severe as the second wave: ICMR
3 years, 6 months ago

Third-wave seems unlikely to be as severe as the second wave: ICMR

Live Mint  

The third wave of covid-19 seems unlikely to be as severe as the second wave, concluded a study done by the Indian Council of Medical Research in association with Imperial College London, London. Using simple mathematical models of the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2, the ICMR study examined the conditions under which a serious third wave could occur. Using a deterministic, …

Third Wave of Covid-19 Unlikely to Be as Severe as Second Wave: Study
3 years, 6 months ago

Third Wave of Covid-19 Unlikely to Be as Severe as Second Wave: Study

News 18  

A third wave of Covid-19 — if it occurs — is unlikely to be as severe as the second wave given the extent of spread of coronavirus infections that has already taken place in the country, according to a study. Presenting a vaccine ramp-up scenario where 40 percent of the population has received two doses within three months of the …

Third Covid Wave: When Will it Arrive, What the Govt Said & Are Kids in Danger
3 years, 6 months ago

Third Covid Wave: When Will it Arrive, What the Govt Said & Are Kids in Danger

News 18  

AIIMS Director Dr Randeep Guleria on Saturday warned that if Covid-appropriate behaviour is not followed and crowding not prevented, the next wave of the viral infection could strike the country in the next six to eight weeks. In the poll conducted by Reuters, nearly two-thirds of experts, when asked if children and those under 18 years would be most at …

Coronavirus waves inevitable without appropriate protocol: experts
3 years, 8 months ago

Coronavirus waves inevitable without appropriate protocol: experts

The Hindu  

Recurring waves of coronavirus infections are inevitable if existing practices such as expanding India's vaccination drive and following COVID protocol are not adhered to, say experts. Earlier last week, Principal Scientific Advisor K. VijayRaghavan had said, “A phase three is inevitable, given the higher levels of circulating virus.” “There is, however, no clear time-line on when this third phase will …

May 4, 2021 coronavirus news
3 years, 8 months ago

May 4, 2021 coronavirus news

CNN  

M Vidyasagar, chair of the Covid-19 Modeling Committee CNN India should see a downturn in the number of cases “within a matter of a week or two, possibly within days” according to their latest model, M Vidyasagar, chair of the Covid-19 Modeling Committee, told CNN on Tuesday. “We underestimated the number of cases at the start of April but subsequent …

The Curious Case of a Second Coronavirus Wave in India
4 years, 3 months ago

The Curious Case of a Second Coronavirus Wave in India

News 18  

Is there one or not? Dr Randeep Guleria, member of India’s National Task Force on Covid-19, director of Delhi’s AIIMS and a leading pulmonologist told CNN-News18 about some parts of the country witnessing a ‘second wave’ of infection. “We don’t know if it will be a second wave, a second peak or a continuing first wave in some countries,” she …

Coronavirus: What is second wave of pandemic and has Covid-19 hit that stage in India?
4 years, 4 months ago

Coronavirus: What is second wave of pandemic and has Covid-19 hit that stage in India?

India Today  

Pandemics are known to have multiple waves before they die down. With many states in India recording sudden spikes in fresh cases of Covid-19 in recent days after showing signs of relent, the second wave of Covid-19 has been in focus in conversations about the coronavirus pandemic. For example, August 3, 10, 17 and 24 have reported minimum number of …

Is the world facing a second coronavirus wave?
4 years, 5 months ago

Is the world facing a second coronavirus wave?

Al Jazeera  

The number of new cases is surging around the globe and governments are weighing options to face it. Just a few weeks ago, many countries thought they had the coronavirus under control as the number of cases was falling and the curve of infections flattening. A sudden record number of infections is being reported in many countries. The World Health …

JOHN NAISH: Why the UK's deadliest coronavirus threat is now complacency
4 years, 6 months ago

JOHN NAISH: Why the UK's deadliest coronavirus threat is now complacency

Daily Mail  

Are we already starting to suffer a second wave of Covid-19 before the first wave has even fully subsided? A woman wearing a face mask walks past social distance advisory signs in Leicester's North Evington neighbourhood today Matt Hancock announced non-essential shops will shut from tomorrow and schools will close from Thursday in Leicester The fear is that viral pandemic …

Experts Predict What A Second Wave Of Coronavirus Will Be Like
4 years, 6 months ago

Experts Predict What A Second Wave Of Coronavirus Will Be Like

Huff Post  

LOADING ERROR LOADING There’s been much speculation about if and when a second coronavirus wave will come crashing down on us, and whether it has the potential to be more severe than the first crest. After all, that’s what unfolded with past respiratory infections like the 1918 flu pandemic, which had a second wave far more devastating and fatal than …

Second Wave Of Coronavirus Cases? Experts Say We're Still In The First.
4 years, 6 months ago

Second Wave Of Coronavirus Cases? Experts Say We're Still In The First.

Huff Post  

LOADING ERROR LOADING What’s all this talk about a “second wave” of U.S. coronavirus cases? In The Wall Street Journal last week, Vice President Mike Pence wrote in a piece headlined “There Isn’t a Coronavirus ‘Second Wave’” that the nation is winning the fight against the virus. Let’s get out of the first wave before you have a second wave.” …

2nd wave of virus cases? Experts say we’re still in the 1st
4 years, 6 months ago

2nd wave of virus cases? Experts say we’re still in the 1st

Associated Press  

What’s all this talk about a “second wave” of U.S. coronavirus cases? In The Wall Street Journal last week, Vice President Mike Pence wrote in a piece headlined “There Isn’t a Coronavirus ‘Second Wave’” that the nation is winning the fight against the virus. Let’s get out of the first wave before you have a second wave.” Clearly there was …

India may see second wave of COVID-19 outbreak in monsoon, say scientists
4 years, 8 months ago

India may see second wave of COVID-19 outbreak in monsoon, say scientists

India TV News  

The trajectory of COVID-19 cases could have plateaued and might even fall for some weeks after the lockdown is lifted but India is likely to see a second wave in late July or August with a surge in the number of cases during the monsoon, say scientists. “Still, we may get a surge of new cases of the same coronavirus …

What causes a 'second wave' outbreak of coronavirus, and could we see this in Australia?
4 years, 8 months ago

What causes a 'second wave' outbreak of coronavirus, and could we see this in Australia?

ABC  

Following the emergence and rapid spread of COVID-19, several countries have succeeded in bringing local outbreaks under control. If a population has not achieved herd immunity, enough susceptible people may remain to fuel a second wave if controls are relaxed and infection is reintroduced. As China winds back social distancing measures, new infected cases could, if not quickly detected and …

How bad could a second wave of coronavirus infections be, and where could they strike?
4 years, 9 months ago

How bad could a second wave of coronavirus infections be, and where could they strike?

ABC  

It is highly likely the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak will shift multiple times around the globe until a vaccine is found. Stay up-to-date on the coronavirus outbreak Download the ABC News app and subscribe to our range of news alerts for the latest on how the pandemic is impacting the world Professor Teo Yik Ying from the Saw Swee …

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