Connecting the dots to mitigate a third wave
After a long and painful month-and-a-half, confirmed cases of COVID-19 in India have been declining steadily for more than a month. ‘R’ and determinants A simple epidemiologic concept can be used to better understand the second wave and help plan for a potential third wave. R depends on four factors, summarised by the acronym DOTS: the Duration a person is infectious; Opportunities infected individuals have to spread infection to others; the probability Transmission occurs given an opportunity, and the average Susceptibility of a population or subpopulation. With this in mind, increased social mixing and large gatherings that took place in early 2021 also might have helped facilitate a second wave. Finally, the last factor in the DOTS equation is the duration of infectiousness or D. Emerging evidence suggests that the duration of infectiousness could be slightly longer with some new variants.
Third Covid Wave: When Will it Arrive, What the Govt Said & Are Kids in Danger
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