Eight indicators tell us what is going wrong in Indian economy right now and why bad days await next government
5 years, 8 months ago

Eight indicators tell us what is going wrong in Indian economy right now and why bad days await next government

Firstpost  

The rural economy, which largely depends on agriculture, is in a mess. Falling prices of agricultural produce and lack of irrigation/ storage facilities have been hurting the farmers Multiple pointers are indicating the persistence of an economic slowdown in Asia’s third-largest economy. For instance, in a research note dated 4 May, Kotak Institutional Equities talked about a ‘sharp, sudden deterioration in short-term demand narrative.’ “We see a major shift in tone on short-term demand narrative in the management commentaries of the companies that have reported thus far. The average annual agricultural GDP growth has been 2.9 percent in the past five years, lower than the 4.3 percent rate achieved during the preceding five years. India’s unemployment rate in April accelerated to 7.6 percent, the highest since October 2016, and up from 6.71 percent in March 2019, according to data compiled by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy.

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History of this topic

DC Edit | Fall in consumption signals economic slump lies ahead
6 days, 12 hours ago

DC Edit | Fall in consumption signals economic slump lies ahead

Deccan Chronicle  

The Indian economy is likely to record the slowest growth in the last four years at 6.4 per cent in the next financial year 2024-25, according to the first advance estimates released by the government on Tuesday. The growth in the manufacturing sector, constrained by weak exports and slowing global demand, is expected to muted at 5.3 per cent from …

India must shift its policy focus to address the demand deficiency that ails its economy.
1 month ago

India must shift its policy focus to address the demand deficiency that ails its economy.

Live Mint  

Two key pieces of economic data released last month have rung alarm bells on the state of India’s economy. Rural wages have been stagnant for the last 10 years, but even general wages have shown a decline in real terms for both rural and urban areas for more than a decade. The Centre’s strategy for managing food inflation has largely …

India’s Godrej Consumer slumps 9% after flagging weak Q3 demand
Trending News
1 month ago

India’s Godrej Consumer slumps 9% after flagging weak Q3 demand

Live Mint  

By Sethuraman N R Dec 9 - Shares of India's Godrej Consumer Products slumped 9% on Monday, set for their worst day since March 2020 and dragging down its peers in the fast moving consumer goods sector after the firm warned of stress on demand and profit margins in the third quarter. Including Monday's decline, the consumer index has shed …

India’s economic slowdown calls for a well-crafted response
1 month, 1 week ago

India’s economic slowdown calls for a well-crafted response

Live Mint  

Poll managers in the BJP must be heaving a sigh of relief: the underwhelming gross domestic product data for the July-September 2024 quarter has been released well after the Maharashtra assembly polls were done and dusted. Logging disappointing year-on-year growth of 5.4%, the GDP data print for the second quarter of 2024-25 is not only much below consensus estimates from …

Vivek Kaul: Why the stockmarket wallahs are suddenly worried about the economy
2 months, 1 week ago

Vivek Kaul: Why the stockmarket wallahs are suddenly worried about the economy

Live Mint  

The Indian economy has had a consumption problem for a while now. In the limited experience of the OPM wallahs, the Indian economy was doing well because the companies listed on the stock exchanges were doing well. Let’s now take a look at the growth in GST collections—a favourite among the OPM wallahs when they wanted to tell us that …

Business News: Catch All Stock Market and Business Updates in Just 2 Minutes | ABP News
4 months ago

Business News: Catch All Stock Market and Business Updates in Just 2 Minutes | ABP News

ABP News  

Retail inflation in India is projected to stay below 4% for August 2024, according to recent reports. The Consumer Price Index, a key measure of retail inflation, is expected to remain within this range due to various factors influencing the market. Additionally, the prices of essential goods and services have not seen major spikes, contributing to the overall lower inflation …

Explained | Is the economy driving with the brakes on?
2 years ago

Explained | Is the economy driving with the brakes on?

The Hindu  

The story so far: At this time last December, India’s economy was on the cusp of a fledgling recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, though the Omicron variant posed fresh speed bumps for the rebound. As JP Morgan managing director and India chief economist Sajjid Chinoy explained at a CII economic policy summit last week, 2022 was expected to see a …

On inflation in India, a silver lining of stability
2 years ago

On inflation in India, a silver lining of stability

Hindustan Times  

After treading above the Reserve Bank of India’s target range for almost a year, India’s consumer price inflation is finally back within the band — registering a 5.9% year-on-year increase in November. However, we Food inflation remains the dominant driver of volatility in consumer price index inflation, despite the sharp pullback in the prices of vegetables and fruits being the …

Monthly economic review | India’s growth to be sustained by consumer spending rebound
2 years, 3 months ago

Monthly economic review | India’s growth to be sustained by consumer spending rebound

The Hindu  

A sharp rebound in consumer spending and rising employment will sustain economic growth in India in the months ahead, the government said in its monthly economic review for August published on Saturday. The report also said high levels of foreign exchange reserves, sustained foreign direct investment and strong export earnings have provided a reasonable buffer against monetary policy normalisation in …

Surge in services demand helps steady India’s economy in August
2 years, 4 months ago

Surge in services demand helps steady India’s economy in August

Live Mint  

India’s economy showed signs of stabilizing last month, with strong demand for services helping weather headwinds from high inflation, according to a gauge of earliest available indicators. Business Activity Purchasing managers’ surveys showed a rebound in S&P Global India Composite PMI in August, thanks largely to a stronger expansion in services activity amid an upturn in new orders and slower …

Why the cautious Indian consumer is bad news for GDP
2 years, 4 months ago

Why the cautious Indian consumer is bad news for GDP

Live Mint  

NEW DELHI' : There’s a seeming mismatch between India’s high GDP growth rates and persistently weak consumer sentiments. Since 58-60% of the GDP of India is on account of consumption, sustaining even a 7% GDP growth rate will be impossible unless the Indian consumer spends liberally. Ordinary Indians are still struggling to manage household expenses because income levels are not …

Economic recovery still dicey, key indicators remain dull in Nov
4 years ago

Economic recovery still dicey, key indicators remain dull in Nov

Live Mint  

The Indian economy remained in a slump in November as most high-frequency indicators failed to show any marked improvement. Nine out of a group of 16 such indicators considered in Mint’s monthly macro tracker remain in red, or below their five-year-average trend. Launched in October 2018, Mint’s macro tracker provides a monthly state-of-the-economy report based on trends in 16 high-frequency …

GDP shrank 8.6% in Q2 pushing economy into recession: RBI
4 years, 2 months ago

GDP shrank 8.6% in Q2 pushing economy into recession: RBI

The Hindu  

India’s economy rebounded sharply in the wake of the reopening from lockdowns, slowing the pace of its contraction to 8.6% in the second quarter, a ‘nowcast’ in the RBI’s monthly bulletin showed on Wednesday. An Economic Activity Index, which tracks real-time data from 27 monthly indicators, showed the economy had rebounded sharply from May/June, with industry normalising faster than contact-intensive …

Indian economy coming back on track at ’more speed than expected’: Javadekar
4 years, 2 months ago

Indian economy coming back on track at ’more speed than expected’: Javadekar

Live Mint  

Thanks to higher Goods and Services Tax collections and rise in power demand, Indian economy is coming back on track at "more speed than expected," Union minister Prakash Javadekar said on Wednesday. An increase in rail freight collection, higher GST collections in October, rise in power demand and improved Foreign direct investment inflows in the recent months indicate that the …

Ominous signals: on slowdown of India's economy
4 years, 7 months ago

Ominous signals: on slowdown of India's economy

The Hindu  

India’s economy is in a severe slowdown that is only going to get worse in a pandemic-stricken world. Three months after Finance Ministry mandarins prognosticated that India’s growth slowdown had bottomed out, the latest economic data has belied that prediction. Crucially, the GDP growth estimates for the January-March quarter and the full fiscal year barely reflect the impact of the …

India’s GDP growth may plummet to multi-decade low of 1.6% in FY21: Goldman Sachs
4 years, 9 months ago

India’s GDP growth may plummet to multi-decade low of 1.6% in FY21: Goldman Sachs

India TV News  

Indian policymakers have not been aggressive enough in their response till now to the crisis, and will need to eventually intensify their efforts, economists at Goldman Sachs said. Economic growth is likely to plummet to a multi-decade low of 1.6% in fiscal year 2020-21 due to COVID-19 pandemic and ensuing measures like lockdowns and social distancing, an American brokerage said …

Explained | Is the economy in really bad shape?
5 years ago

Explained | Is the economy in really bad shape?

The Hindu  

The story so far: On November 30 this year, India’s statistical machinery revealed that growth in the quarter from July to September had slipped to 4.5%. Mr. Subramanian’s paper with Mr. Felman reckons that India’s current crisis is driven by both cyclical and structural factors — but problems in finance have exacerbated the slowdown. What’s the Way Out?”, underlines: “All …

India braces for shock GDP as Modi scrambles to spur economy
5 years, 1 month ago

India braces for shock GDP as Modi scrambles to spur economy

Live Mint  

New Delhi: Explore what’s moving the global economy in the new season of the Stephanomics podcast. “Domestic demand is displaying chronic weakness, with an apparent credit crunch afflicting wide swaths of the economy,” said Taimur Baig, chief economist at DBS Group Holdings Ltd. in Singapore. “Production and sales are under pressure, and public spending is running out of room due …

Once the world’s fastest growing economy, India faces a slowdown
5 years, 1 month ago

Once the world’s fastest growing economy, India faces a slowdown

Al Jazeera  

India’s economy grew at the slowest pace in more than six years and the pain is widespread. “The private sector is definitely down both for consumption and investment and that’s the fundamental problem in the economy today,” said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at CARE Ratings. “We’ll have to live with this low growth scenario for the rest of the year.” …

Lower demand drags India's factory growth to 2-year low in October: Survey
5 years, 2 months ago

Lower demand drags India's factory growth to 2-year low in October: Survey

India Today  

India's factory activity growth hit a two-year low in October as new orders and output rose at a slower pace, dragging business confidence to its weakest since early 2017, a survey showed on Friday, suggesting more policy easing is on the cards. That mirrors a recent sharp deceleration in global manufacturing activity as a protracted US-China trade war took a …

Economic slowdown is here, show various indicators
5 years, 2 months ago

Economic slowdown is here, show various indicators

The Hindu  

The months of August and September marked among the lowest lows for the Indian economy, according to various indicators. This was in line with what IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva suggested -- the emerging markets such as India will experience an even "more pronounced" effect admist a "synchronised slowdown" in the global economy. image/svg+xml Credit to commercial sector down Non-food credit …

‘India Still Fast-Growing Economy’: World Bank Economist
5 years, 3 months ago

‘India Still Fast-Growing Economy’: World Bank Economist

The Quint  

But since the great recession, the global financial crisis and other transmission mechanism has become much more important that it directly goes to domestic demand in the developing countries that.everywhere in the world investors are becoming very cautious, he said. We are seeing it in Pakistan and to some extent we are seeing it in Bangladesh also, though the pictures …

India facing prolonged slowdown: Manmohan Singh
5 years, 4 months ago

India facing prolonged slowdown: Manmohan Singh

The Hindu  

Former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Sunday said the 5% growth in India’s Gross Domestic Product signalled a prolonged slowdown and asked the government to engage with “thinking minds by shunning vendetta politics to take the economy out of a man-made crisis.” In a video statement, he said the state of the economy was “deeply worrying” and the near zero% …

State of Indian economy: Decoding the 5% problem
5 years, 4 months ago

State of Indian economy: Decoding the 5% problem

Hindustan Times  

On Friday, the Central Statistics Office released India’s GDP figures for the quarter ending June 2019. The measures announced in the conference held on 23 August can be classified into three broad categories and also listed in order of importance: boosting business sentiment in the economy, removing supply-side hurdles to the flow of credit and working capital, and boosting demand …

GDP slump signals significant deceleration in investment, consumption: FICCI
5 years, 4 months ago

GDP slump signals significant deceleration in investment, consumption: FICCI

India TV News  

India's economic growth dropping to an over six-year low of 5 per cent in April-June 2019 is indicating a "significant deceleration" in both investment and consumer demand, industry body Ficci said on Saturday. Expressing "deep" concerns over sluggishness in the growth momentum, Ficci President Sandip Somany said "the latest GDP growth numbers are below expectations and point towards a significant …

Economic growth seen slipping in April-June on weak consumer demand, private investment; more stimulus expected: Poll
5 years, 4 months ago

Economic growth seen slipping in April-June on weak consumer demand, private investment; more stimulus expected: Poll

Firstpost  

In spite of a windfall dividend to the government of nearly $21 billion from the central bank, the room for aggressive stimulus is limited due to slower growth in tax receipts, analysts say. New Delhi: India’s economy likely expanded at its weakest pace in more than five years in April-June, a Reuters poll showed, as consumer demand and private investment …

Slowdown in consumption: India Ratings cut GDP forecast to 6.7% for current fiscal from earlier estimate of 7.3%
5 years, 4 months ago

Slowdown in consumption: India Ratings cut GDP forecast to 6.7% for current fiscal from earlier estimate of 7.3%

Firstpost  

New Delhi: India Ratings on Wednesday lowered the country’s growth forecast to six-year low of 6.7 percent for the current fiscal from an earlier estimate of 7.3 percent on account of slowdown in consumption and moderation in industrial growth among other factors. However, average investment growth, largely constituting government and corporate sector maintenance capex, at 9.2 percent during 2016-17 to …

Tracking India’s economic slowdown: Between NITI Aayog chief’s warning and CEA’s tough talk lies real cure for economy; inaction will be disastrous
5 years, 4 months ago

Tracking India’s economic slowdown: Between NITI Aayog chief’s warning and CEA’s tough talk lies real cure for economy; inaction will be disastrous

Firstpost  

By now, the fear that India’s economy is slowing and slowing at a real dangerous pace has been confirmed by hard data Editor’s note: This is the seventh and concluding part of a series in which Firstpost’s columnists analyse the ongoing economic slowdown and offer solutions. In the absence of private sector participation, India’s economic growth fell to 5.8 percent …

Tracking India's economic slowdown: Path to revival will be slow, painful; govt must start work now
5 years, 5 months ago

Tracking India's economic slowdown: Path to revival will be slow, painful; govt must start work now

Firstpost  

The most positive aspect of the economic slowdown in the country is that there is official acceptance that something is amiss Editor’s note: This is the fourth part of a series in which Firstpost’s columnists analyse the ongoing economic slowdown and offer solutions. The most positive aspect of the economic slowdown in the country is that there is official acceptance …

Tracking India’s economic slowdown: Why Narendra Modi govt shouldn’t delay fiscal stimulus to revive struggling industries
5 years, 5 months ago

Tracking India’s economic slowdown: Why Narendra Modi govt shouldn’t delay fiscal stimulus to revive struggling industries

Firstpost  

Industry captains are marching to the North Block making their case for an urgent fiscal stimulus. The industry, battered with the economic slowdown, thinks there is an urgent case for a stimulus package nothing less than Rs 1 lakh crore. Growth in eight core industries—coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertiliser, steel, cement and electricity —that constitutes 40 percent …

Economy shows signs of structural slowdown: Govt must work on urgent stimulus plan that Budget couldn’t deliver
5 years, 5 months ago

Economy shows signs of structural slowdown: Govt must work on urgent stimulus plan that Budget couldn’t deliver

Firstpost  

There is no immediate respite seen for the economy till now. Also, global analytical firm CRISIL has cut India’s GDP growth forecast for this fiscal by 20 basis points to 6.9 percent citing weak monsoon, slowing global growth, and sluggish high-frequency data for the first quarter. In May this year, the labour ministry data showed that India’s unemployment rate rose …

Missing demand: on economic slowdown
5 years, 8 months ago

Missing demand: on economic slowdown

The Hindu  

A welter of data collectively and individually point to one worrying conclusion: economic momentum across sectors is slowing in the widening absence of that key ingredient, demand. While sales of commercial vehicles, a fair proxy for overall economic activity, slid 6% last month, a 16.4% drop in demand for two-wheelers extended the segment’s slump into the new financial year, mirroring …

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