Market bets for 2024 thrown into chaos by US recession conundrum
1 year ago

Market bets for 2024 thrown into chaos by US recession conundrum

The Hindu  

Investment banks and asset managers have wildly varying stock market and currency calls for 2024, reflecting deep division over whether the U.S. economy will enter a long-heralded recession and drag the world with it. Amundi, Europe's largest asset manager, now expects a U.S. recession in the first half of 2024, meaning the group is negative on the dollar and likes emerging market assets. For U.S. stocks, which drive world equity markets, forecasters are divided between what Citi head of trading strategy Stuart Kaiser calls the "converts and disciples" of last year's strong recession consensus. Deutsche Bank predicts a mild U.S. recession in the first half of 2024 and a whopping 175 basis points of rate cuts, with lower borrowing costs driving the S&P 500 share index to 5,100 points.

Market Investment 2024 Fed Rate Rate Cuts Recession  investment  rate  chaos  sp  cuts  recession  markets  market  conundrum  forecasters  bets  2024  bank  thrown

History of this topic

2024 has been a year of extremes in the stock market. Can it last?
5 days, 13 hours ago

2024 has been a year of extremes in the stock market. Can it last?

Live Mint  

In 2024, extreme market trends have become even more so. Fateful past periods of small-caps’ having relative price/earnings ratios as low as today include the Nifty Fifty era of the 1970s and the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s. The world’s top investment manager by assets recommends that investors stick with U.S. stocks, embrace actively managed funds and delve into …

The stock market is riding a "red wave" with policy risks, analysts say
1 month, 1 week ago

The stock market is riding a "red wave" with policy risks, analysts say

Salon  

Market analysts say the stock market's momentum following the 2024 election could continue, driven by steady economic growth, strong corporate earnings and expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Stovall cited historical data showing that during similar "red wave" periods, the stock market gained an average of nearly 13% annually and increased 75% of the time. In …

Stocks Fall, US Yields Rise Amid Election Jitters
2 months ago

Stocks Fall, US Yields Rise Amid Election Jitters

Live Mint  

Global stock markets are experiencing volatility due to the upcoming U.S. election and the outlook on interest rate cuts. U.S. yields rose, while stocks fell, reflecting market uncertainty. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average finished lower, while the Nasdaq Composite ended higher. The pan-European STOXX 600 index closed down, while MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe fell.

Experts are warning of a global recession. Here’s what that actually means
4 months, 2 weeks ago

Experts are warning of a global recession. Here’s what that actually means

The Independent  

The latest headlines from our reporters across the US sent straight to your inbox each weekday Your briefing on the latest headlines from across the US Please enter a valid email address Please enter a valid email address SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Please try again later {{ /verifyErrors …

Will US economy go into recession? Goldman economists lift ‘limited’ risk to 25%
4 months, 2 weeks ago

Will US economy go into recession? Goldman economists lift ‘limited’ risk to 25%

Hindustan Times  

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists increased the probability of a US recession in the next year to 25% from 15%, but said there are several reasons not to fear a slump even after unemployment jumped. “We continue to see recession risk as limited,” the Goldman economists led by Jan Hatzius said in a report to clients on Sunday. “The premise …

Stocks slammed by US recession risk, bonds bet on rapid rate cuts
4 months, 2 weeks ago

Stocks slammed by US recession risk, bonds bet on rapid rate cuts

Live Mint  

* Asian stock markets : https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4 * Nasdaq futures drop 1.9%, Nikkei sheds 6% * Markets wager Fed to cut by 50bps in Sept * Dollar on back foot after Treasury yields dive By Wayne Cole SYDNEY, - Major share markets were deep under water in Asia on Monday as fears the United States could be heading for recession triggered …

US stock market may fall 10% soon, Morgan Stanley’s top strategist warns
5 months, 2 weeks ago

US stock market may fall 10% soon, Morgan Stanley’s top strategist warns

Hindustan Times  

The US stock market is likely to witness a correction soon owing to US presidential elections, corporate earnings, and Federal Reserve policy on rate cuts, Morgan Stanley’s top strategist Mike Wilson said. He predicted, “I think the chance of a 10% correction is highly likely sometime between now and the election.” Wall Street traders sent stocks toward fresh all-time highs …

Professional forecasters raise expectations for US economy in 2024
9 months, 3 weeks ago

Professional forecasters raise expectations for US economy in 2024

Associated Press  

NEW YORK — This year looks to be a much better one for the U.S. economy than business economists were forecasting just a few months ago, according to a survey released Monday. High rates put the brakes on the economy, such as by making mortgages and credit card bills more expensive, in hopes of starving inflation of its fuel. Professional …

Wall Street’s hopes for rate cuts may be too optimistic, like they’ve been so many times before
11 months, 2 weeks ago

Wall Street’s hopes for rate cuts may be too optimistic, like they’ve been so many times before

Associated Press  

NEW YORK — Even when everyone agrees the interest-rate cuts that Wall Street craves so much are coming, there’s still room for potential disappointment. Since the Federal Reserve hinted last month its drastic rate hikes to get inflation under control may be done, bets have built on how much the Fed will lower its main interest rate in 2024. “All …

2024: Equity market set for eventful journey on LS polls, interest rate trajectory
11 months, 3 weeks ago

2024: Equity market set for eventful journey on LS polls, interest rate trajectory

Live Mint  

With tailwinds of a remarkable year and handsome investor returns, Indian equities are set for an eventful journey in 2024, with a slew of local and global cues — varying from interest rates to Lok Sabha polls to geopolitical happenings. Lok Sabha elections, the US Presidential polls, the trajectory of interest rates, particularly in the US and India, inflation trends …

Banking CEOs warn of economic uncertainty: Is a US recession on the horizon?
1 year ago

Banking CEOs warn of economic uncertainty: Is a US recession on the horizon?

Hindustan Times  

Wall Street is buzzing with concerns as top banking executives, including Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan, Brian Moynihan of Bank of America, and Jane Fraser of Citigroup, testify before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson/File Photo Soaring inflation has plagued the nation, decreasing from 9 percent in June 2022 to 3.2 percent in October 2023 but still exceeding the Fed's …

Economists predict US inflation will keep cooling and the economy can avoid a recession
1 year ago

Economists predict US inflation will keep cooling and the economy can avoid a recession

Associated Press  

NEW YORK — Most business economists think the U.S. economy could avoid a recession next year, even if the job market ends up weakening under the weight of high interest rates, according to a survey released Monday. Most of the surveyed economists expect inflation to continue to slow in 2024, though many say it may not get all the way …

Investors See Interest-Rate Cuts Coming Soon, Recession or Not
1 year ago

Investors See Interest-Rate Cuts Coming Soon, Recession or Not

Live Mint  

Wall Street is gearing up for rate cuts. “You’re really talking about a distribution of outcomes that range between the Fed doing nothing next year to the Fed cutting aggressively next year,” said Rob Waldner, fixed income chief strategist at Invesco. Investors caution that it is still possible that the Fed doesn’t cut rates in 2024, potentially pushing bond yields …

A Recession Is No Longer the Consensus
1 year, 2 months ago

A Recession Is No Longer the Consensus

Live Mint  

Economists are turning optimistic on the U.S. economy. In the latest quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal, business and academic economists lowered the probability of a recession within the next year, from 54% on average in July to a more optimistic 48%. View Full Image “The probability of recession continues to recede in the U.S. as the banking turmoil …

JPMorgan boss Jamie Dimon warns 7% interest rates would cripple the global economy as the Fed holds the line at 5.5%: 'You find out who is swimming naked when that tide goes out'
1 year, 2 months ago

JPMorgan boss Jamie Dimon warns 7% interest rates would cripple the global economy as the Fed holds the line at 5.5%: 'You find out who is swimming naked when that tide goes out'

Daily Mail  

The boss of JPMorgan has warned that the worst of the interest rate pain may still be ahead for businesses and families already scarred by an historic round of hikes. JPMorgan chief Jamie Dimon said that the Fed was forced to hold on another hike at its latest meeting because the effect of a jump to 5 to 7 percent …

US leading indicators point to recession starting soon
1 year, 5 months ago

US leading indicators point to recession starting soon

India Today  

An index designed to track turns in US business cycles fell for the 15th straight month in June, dragged down by a weakening consumer outlook and increased unemployment claims, marking the longest streak of decreases since the lead-up to the 2007-2009 recession. The Conference Board on Thursday said its Leading Economic Index, a measure that anticipates future economic activity, declined …

UK ‘will fall into recession’ following bond market chaos
1 year, 6 months ago

UK ‘will fall into recession’ following bond market chaos

The Telegraph  

Britain will fall into recession by the end of this year or early next year, a top City investment chief has predicted, following the bond market turmoil. Luke Hickmore, investment director at asset manager Abrdn, said the "real surprise" of rising core inflation in Britain's economy would force the Bank of England into action on interest rates. Mr Hickmore told …

2023 US recession now expected to start later than predicted
1 year, 9 months ago

2023 US recession now expected to start later than predicted

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — A majority of the nation’s business economists expect a U.S. recession to begin later this year than they had previously forecast, after a series of reports have pointed to a surprisingly resilient economy despite steadily higher interest rates. Fifty-eight percent of 48 economists who responded to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics envision a recession …

2023 recession now expected to start later than predicted
1 year, 9 months ago

2023 recession now expected to start later than predicted

LA Times  

Over the last year, the Federal Reserve has raised its key short-term rate eight times, causing many kinds of consumer and business loans, including auto loans, to become more expensive. A majority of the nation’s business economists expect a U.S. recession to begin later this year than they had previously forecast, after a series of reports have pointed to a …

What’s in store for investors in 2023? 8 predictions to help you set right expectations
1 year, 11 months ago

What’s in store for investors in 2023? 8 predictions to help you set right expectations

Live Mint  

In 2022, equity investors had a difficult time. One event after another spooked market sentiments, whether it was the crypto currency crash, the Russia-Ukraine war, or inflation and higher interest rates. Here are our eight predictions for the coming year The rate of inflation would have either reached its zenith or begun to decline Inflation will start to decrease after …

US recession a growing fear as Fed plans to keep rates high
2 years ago

US recession a growing fear as Fed plans to keep rates high

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — After scaling 40-year highs, inflation in the United States has been slowly easing since summer. We’re going to break inflation or we’re going to break the economy.’’ Many investors had convinced themselves that with inflation pressures gradually easing, the Fed might soon declare some progress in their fight and perhaps even reverse course and cut rates sometime in …

Investors overseeing $5 trillion bet economic recession can be avoided: Report
2 years ago

Investors overseeing $5 trillion bet economic recession can be avoided: Report

Hindustan Times  

Professional investors are loading up on bets that an economic recession can be avoided despite all the warnings to the contrary. Investors overseeing $5 Trillion bet economic recession can be avoided: Report Money managers have been favoring economically sensitive equities, such as industrial companies and commodity producers, according to a study from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. on positioning by mutual …

Global stocks to grind higher, lacklustre year ahead
2 years ago

Global stocks to grind higher, lacklustre year ahead

Live Mint  

The global economy needs to find a more solid footing before most stock markets to break out of their torpor, according to market strategists polled by Reuters who have broadly cut their 2023 forecasts compared with three months ago. Much will depend on how much longer central banks persist with their current mantra that interest rates, while perhaps rising in …

5 signs the world is headed for a recession
2 years, 2 months ago

5 signs the world is headed for a recession

CNN  

New York CNN Business — Around the world, markets are flashing warning signs that the global economy is teetering on a cliff’s edge. The dollar’s strength also creates destabilizing effects for Wall Street, as many of the S&P 500 companies do business around the world. “Companies are hanging back and waiting to see what conditions hold.” Welcome to bear territory …

40 Per Cent Chance Of Recession In US, Other Key Economies Face High Risk: Report
2 years, 4 months ago

40 Per Cent Chance Of Recession In US, Other Key Economies Face High Risk: Report

ABP News  

A latest poll of economists have hinted that the global economy is facing serious threats of a slowdown with some key economies at high risk of recession. The US inflation which is at a four-decade high of 9.1 per cent, is not expected to cool to the Fed's 2 per cent target until at least 2024. According to the Reuters …

Nomura Says Many Major Economies Will Hit Recession In 2023
2 years, 5 months ago

Nomura Says Many Major Economies Will Hit Recession In 2023

News 18  

A report by Nomura Holdings Inc revealed many major economies will enter recessions over the next 12 months. Nomura said the Eurozone, the UK, Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia and the US will fall into recession in the research note published by Rob Subbaraman and Si Ying Toh. In the US, Nomura predicted a shallow recession but a long one …

Is a global recession coming? In US, China risks are mounting
2 years, 8 months ago

Is a global recession coming? In US, China risks are mounting

Al Jazeera  

Ukraine war and China’s lockdowns among risks to global growth, although most economists say downturn unlikely in 2022. The war in Ukraine, Russia sanctions, China’s “zero COVID” policies, spiking inflation, and interest hikes by the United States Federal Reserve are all set to crimp growth in 2022. On Wednesday, European Council President Charles Michel told the European parliament he believed …

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