Saudi oil strikes: Will Gulf ‘powder-keg’ detonate?
Al JazeeraAs questions swirl over the Saudi oil attacks, all eyes are on the Middle East to see if tensions finally boil over. “Because of one thing we can be certain, and that is that this very serious incident makes the chances of a regional conflict that much higher.” The strikes on Saudi Aramco petroleum and gas processing plants at Abqaiq and Khurais in the kingdom’s Eastern Province halted more than half of crude output from the world’s main exporter, by some 5.7 million barrels per day. Saturday’s attacks were the latest in a series of escalatory moves witnessed since the US unilaterally withdrew from a nuclear deal with Iran and other world powers in May 2018 and slapped sanctions on Iran’s oil and banking sectors in a “maximum pressure” campaign against it. What is Iran’s calculation here, and do they have a Plan B?” ‘Ratchet up pressure’ Bronk, however, pointed to Trump’s stated unwillingness to go to war, his recent decision to sack his hawkish, anti-Iran national security adviser, John Bolton, and the president’s bid to win re-election in 2020 from voters who are still weary from wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. “Continuing to ratchet up the pressure is in Iran’s interests as long as it doesn’t lead to war, especially if the attack is de facto tied to Iran but cannot or will not be specifically attributed to the Islamic republic.” For Jim Krane, author of Energy Kingdoms and a research analyst on the Gulf at Rice University, the attacks should serve as a wake-up call for world powers to broker an end to Yemen’s civil war.