El Niño doesn't automatically mean it won't rain. Here's why it's been so wet and stormy for Australia's eastern states
1 year, 2 months ago

El Niño doesn't automatically mean it won't rain. Here's why it's been so wet and stormy for Australia's eastern states

ABC  

Australian weather has always been prone to extremes, which is why the sunburnt country is known for its drought and flooding rains. "So when we know it's going to be an El Niño it changes that probability so the segment for dry conditions on that chocolate wheel is much larger, and the wet is smaller." "When we talk about dry conditions from an El Niño, it's not dry everywhere – it's dry on average," Dr Brown said. "Typically the Murray-Darling Basin area is usually most related to El Niño conditions and along the coastline it's actually less prevalent." "We have done decades of research, we know El Niño and La Niña will still happen, but it's not completely clear the impact climate change has," Dr Brown said.

Climate Change Climate Rain Conditions Rainfall Brown Queensland Extreme Bom El Niño Dry Conditions La Niña Wet Dry Niño Dr Brown Dowdy  parts  el  stormy  increased  states  rain  heres  rainfall  climate  conditions  wet  dry  brown  niño  mean  eastern  extreme  wont

History of this topic

Bureau of Meteorology summer forecast predicts wetter and warmer season fuelled by simmering oceans
3 months, 2 weeks ago

Bureau of Meteorology summer forecast predicts wetter and warmer season fuelled by simmering oceans

ABC  

Months of simmering ocean temperatures around the country are feeding into a forecast of a rainy and warm summer ahead, according to climate scientists. Instructions: Use left and right arrow keys to control image transition Before and after images SLIDE Rainfall in December is looking to be higher than normal, skewing the overall forecast of rainfall for the season as …

Why Australians are being warned to prepare for a very wet summer
5 months, 2 weeks ago

Why Australians are being warned to prepare for a very wet summer

Daily Mail  

Meteorologists have warned there is a strong chance of La Niña forming ahead of summer and bringing heavy rain and flooding to Australia's east. Weatherzone's Joel Pippard said a 'clear La Niña signal' was emerging in the central Pacific Ocean in the form of a pool of cold water collecting about 150m below the surface. Meteorologists are warning there is …

Entire country to be hit by tropical rain bomb with a month's worth of water to fall in just a few days
5 months, 3 weeks ago

Entire country to be hit by tropical rain bomb with a month's worth of water to fall in just a few days

Daily Mail  

Rain is set to soak every Australian state over the next week - with some locations forecast to receive a month's worth of rainfall in just a few days. A surge of tropical moisture is forecast to cause showers across the nation from the weekend until the end of next week, according to Weatherzone. Meteorologist Miriam Bradbury said the eastern …

BOM forecasts very warm winter for Australia, with the jury out on rainfall
9 months, 2 weeks ago

BOM forecasts very warm winter for Australia, with the jury out on rainfall

ABC  

Almost all of Australia, including the capital cities, is very likely to experience another "unusually warm" winter, according to the Bureau of Meteorology's official winter outlook. "And it's only really northern Australia showing any chance of unusually dry, but that's in the dry season so basically they get no rain anyway." Good winter rain is needed for Northcliffe dairy farmer …

A La Niña Watch has been declared — here's what that could mean for Australia's weather in 2024
10 months ago

A La Niña Watch has been declared — here's what that could mean for Australia's weather in 2024

ABC  

The Bureau of Meteorology has officially moved to La Niña "watch", reflecting an increased chance the major climate driver, which helped bring flooding to eastern Australia in 2021 and 2022, will return later this year. La Niña is the cool phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and has helped deliver significant rainfall and flooding events to Australia in the …

Modelling indicates wet La Niña could be back in Australia for the fourth time in five years
1 year, 1 month ago

Modelling indicates wet La Niña could be back in Australia for the fourth time in five years

ABC  

Australia's most dominant climate driver, La Niña, has a strong chance of reappearing in 2024, shifting the odds to favour a wet year. Since 1950, La Niña years on average produced an increase in rain of 23 per cent, while El Niño years only brought a drop of 7 per cent, although south-east Australia observes a more significant dry swing …

Here's what's been pulling the strings on Australia's weather recently — and it's not just El Niño
1 year, 1 month ago

Here's what's been pulling the strings on Australia's weather recently — and it's not just El Niño

ABC  

From a parched, hot September and October — on the brink of extreme drought — to flooding rains in summer, the past few months have thrown up a range of weather extremes across the country. One of the likely reasons for this enhanced summer rainfall — particularly over the south-eastern states — is a driver known as the Southern Annular …

El Niño usually brings dry weather, so why have we just had weeks of heavy rain?
1 year, 3 months ago

El Niño usually brings dry weather, so why have we just had weeks of heavy rain?

ABC  

Last month, record daily rainfall totals fell across several parts of the New South Wales south coast and monthly totals were also above average for most of the NT and Queensland. Loading YouTube content Soaking end to dry spring The answer is no — El Niño is still underway in the Pacific and the phenomenon tends to bring hotter, drier …

Dangerous thunderstorms sweep across south-east Queensland with solid rainfall but no sign of hail
1 year, 3 months ago

Dangerous thunderstorms sweep across south-east Queensland with solid rainfall but no sign of hail

ABC  

South-east Queensland has escaped relatively unscathed following multiple warnings of giant hail and intense rainfall as a trough in the west reached the coast late on Wednesday. "The level of moisture that's in the air and the unstable conditions across with that system could facilitate some isolated, very dangerous thunderstorms as they move east during the rest of this afternoon," …

Major storm event on the horizon across Australia as El Niño takes a raincheck
1 year, 4 months ago

Major storm event on the horizon across Australia as El Niño takes a raincheck

ABC  

After a near rainless September and October, and the prospect of the driest spring on record, this November has served up a pleasant surprise: it's been raining. By this time next week, parts of fire ravaged New South Wales and southern Queensland may even see very isolated minor flooding following well over a months' worth of rain. Already this week …

El Niño is affecting weather in the eastern states, but what's it doing to WA?
1 year, 4 months ago

El Niño is affecting weather in the eastern states, but what's it doing to WA?

ABC  

A scorching severe weather season is tipped for Western Australia, with a warm and dry summer expected that the bureau warns could be among the hottest on record. Key points: El Niño is tipped to bring scorching temperatures to Australia's east this summer The main driver behind WA's outlook is a strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole In tandem with El …

Ready for round two? El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole to deliver more spring heat
1 year, 5 months ago

Ready for round two? El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole to deliver more spring heat

ABC  

Weather has dominated the headlines this week – an extraordinary period of September heat, and the official declaration of two major climate drivers. It was no coincidence record temperatures coincided with the arrival of El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, as Australia's extreme year-to-year weather variability is mostly the result of alternating phases of our surrounding oceans. Indeed, …

Summer of severe heat predicted as Bureau of Meteorology declares El Niño
1 year, 6 months ago

Summer of severe heat predicted as Bureau of Meteorology declares El Niño

ABC  

The Bureau of Meteorology has declared two major climate drivers linked to hot, dry conditions are officially underway in Australia, prompting further warnings that extreme heat could hit this spring and summer. What future El Niño summers could look like Photo shows A globe centred on Australia showing sea surface temperature patterns in red and blue with a time scale …

Over 95% chance of El Nino conditions from January-March 2024: U.S. forecaster
1 year, 6 months ago

Over 95% chance of El Nino conditions from January-March 2024: U.S. forecaster

The Hindu  

There is a more than 95% chance that the El Niño weather pattern will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter from January - March 2024, a U.S. government forecaster said on Thursday, bringing more extreme conditions. El Nino is a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific, and can provoke extreme weather phenomena from wildfires to …

How climate change could be making El Niño more extreme
1 year, 6 months ago

How climate change could be making El Niño more extreme

ABC  

El Niño in a changing climate The prospect of a possible El Niño summer, with the hot and dry conditions it's known for in Australia, can be frightening. Sea surface temperature data captured by satellites and buoys is used to determine whether the Pacific Ocean is in an El Niño, La Niña, or neutral phase. CSIRO climate and natural hazards …

Why a repeat of Black Summer is unlikely this fire season despite El Niño warnings
1 year, 7 months ago

Why a repeat of Black Summer is unlikely this fire season despite El Niño warnings

ABC  

Recent wildfires across the Mediterranean coupled with warnings of El Niño and Earth's hottest month on record have raised questions about what's ahead for Australia's bushfire season. After three years of La Niña rains suppressed bushfire activity, it's highly probable this spring and summer will be the most active fire season in four years. There are five major factors that …

World Meteorological Organization declares El Niño underway, increasing chance of record high global temperatures
1 year, 8 months ago

World Meteorological Organization declares El Niño underway, increasing chance of record high global temperatures

ABC  

The World Meteorological Organization has declared El Niño is now underway, increasing the likelihood of record high global temperatures and disruptive weather patterns over the next 12 months. Key points: The Bureau of Meteorology is yet to officially declare El Niño is here Historically, El Niño brings below average rain and above average temperatures to Australia The last fully fledged …

El Niño takes a rain check as week-long drenching forecast across Australia
1 year, 8 months ago

El Niño takes a rain check as week-long drenching forecast across Australia

ABC  

A rainband stretching more than 3,000 kilometres will engulf Australia next week, delivering soaking rains from the Pilbara and Kimberley, across the outback to the eastern seaboard. The upcoming drenching follows well-above-average rain already this June across southern states, essentially nullifying the forecast of a dry winter. During the past 48 hours rain has fallen across the whole of south-east …

Bureau of Meteorology tips warm, dry winter for virtually all of Australia
1 year, 9 months ago

Bureau of Meteorology tips warm, dry winter for virtually all of Australia

ABC  

The Bureau of Meteorology forecasts parched conditions across virtually all of Australia this winter as a double whammy of drought-linked climate drivers brew in waters to the west and east. Key points: The BOM winter outlook tips dry to very dry weather across virtually all of Australia It looks warmer than normal for most of Australia The growing likelihood of …

El Niño in 2023 becoming more likely, which would result in dry, warm weather across eastern Australia
1 year, 10 months ago

El Niño in 2023 becoming more likely, which would result in dry, warm weather across eastern Australia

ABC  

The first El Niño phase of the Pacific Ocean in eight years is becoming more likely in 2023, increasing the odds of drier and warmer weather across eastern Australia. While the Bureau of Meteorology's Pacific status is currently set at El Niño Watch, defined as about a 50 per cent chance of development, one US federal government department says the …

An 'El Niño Watch' has been declared — here's what that could mean for Australia's weather in 2023
2 years ago

An 'El Niño Watch' has been declared — here's what that could mean for Australia's weather in 2023

ABC  

The Bureau of Meteorology has simultaneously declared the end of La Niña and an El Niño Watch, indicating a potential rapid shift to hot, dry weather in 2023. Key points: The last Pacific warm phase, or El Niño, developed in 2015 It has a reputation for brining drought and bushfires Experts predict there is a 50 per cent chance of …

Australia can expect an El Niño weather pattern bringing extreme dry hot weather now La Niña is over
2 years ago

Australia can expect an El Niño weather pattern bringing extreme dry hot weather now La Niña is over

ABC  

After three years of floods and record rainfall in parts of eastern and northern Australia, La Niña is on the way out. Neutral years now resemble El Niño Last century Australia's worst droughts tended to coincide with El Niño. Australia's total rainfall in neutral years has been lower than El Nino years, a reversal of last century Australia's temperatures in …

Ongoing flood threat to most of Australia shows La Niña weakening but not yet finished
2 years, 2 months ago

Ongoing flood threat to most of Australia shows La Niña weakening but not yet finished

ABC  

Recent headlines warning of El Niño's emergence in 2023 could be premature considering the major short-term weather threat to most of Australia is still rain and flooding. Key points: La Niña's weakening stalls, but it is expected to finally end in coming months Queensland and eastern NSW are entering peak flood season El Niño is possible later in 2023 The …

La Niña is rapidly easing, the BOM says. But the prospect of El Niño has some worried. So what's next?
2 years, 2 months ago

La Niña is rapidly easing, the BOM says. But the prospect of El Niño has some worried. So what's next?

ABC  

It looks as though La Niña's three year grip as the prevailing climate driver for Australia's east coast could be over. For Australia, El Niño typically leads to drier and hotter conditions, while La Niña usually leads to cooler and wetter conditions. "That's another thing a lot of people don’t realise, that conditions in the Pacific don't have to be …

Fears drought could follow floods as BOM forecasts chance of El Niño arriving off back of La Niña
2 years, 2 months ago

Fears drought could follow floods as BOM forecasts chance of El Niño arriving off back of La Niña

ABC  

Farmers across Australia are anxiously watching long-term climate forecasts, with fears a hot and dry El Niño system could back up the current flood-inducing La Niña. Key points: The BOM says there is a 40 per cent chance of an El Niño immediately following the La Niña Experts say it won't necessarily lead to drought, but hot and dry conditions …

Sydney beats 1950 rainfall record with 3 wet months to spare
2 years, 5 months ago

Sydney beats 1950 rainfall record with 3 wet months to spare

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Please enter a valid email address Please enter a valid email address SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Please try again later {{ …

BOM's latest outlook signals soggy spring weather for eastern Australia
2 years, 6 months ago

BOM's latest outlook signals soggy spring weather for eastern Australia

ABC  

The Bureau of Meteorology's official outlook suggests we are heading towards a soggy spring for eastern Australia but relatively dry in the west. Key points: In a blow to flood-riddled communities, there is a strong chance of above median rainfall for much of eastern Australia this spring In contrast, spring rain is likely to be average to below average in …

WA's south-west is set for a dry winter and climate change is part of the reason
2 years, 9 months ago

WA's south-west is set for a dry winter and climate change is part of the reason

ABC  

As Australia's north and east gets set for a soaking-wet winter, the weather bureau's seasonal outlook shows WA's most populated region looking starkly different to the rest of the country. Key points: WA's South West Land Division is forecast to have a drier winter Warmer ocean temperatures are part of the reason Climate change models suggest drying will continue Instead …

Weather’s unwanted guest: Nasty La Nina keeps popping up
2 years, 9 months ago

Weather’s unwanted guest: Nasty La Nina keeps popping up

Associated Press  

Something weird is up with La Nina, the natural but potent weather event linked to more drought and wildfires in the western United States and more Atlantic hurricanes. “They don’t know when to leave,” said Michelle L’Heureux, head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast office for La Nina and its more famous flip side, El Nino. We need …

Global warming may have worsened series of flood disasters, says Bureau of Meteorology
2 years, 9 months ago

Global warming may have worsened series of flood disasters, says Bureau of Meteorology

ABC  

A perfect storm of factors created conditions for devastating flooding across Queensland and NSW this year and global warming may have made them worse, says the Bureau of Meteorology. Key points: The BOM links floods to a trend of high-intensity rainfall events due to climate change It says more than 50 sites in Queensland and NSW recorded more than a …

Half of Western Australia forecast to get rain over the next two days in first decent falls of the season
2 years, 10 months ago

Half of Western Australia forecast to get rain over the next two days in first decent falls of the season

ABC  

Parts of Western Australia are being warned to brace for heavy rain and damaging winds from this evening, as two systems combine to bring a blast of wintry weather to half of the state. Key points: WA recorded a host of hot weather-related records last summer The heat has taken a toll on plants, especially those with shallow roots About …

Wet autumn outlook for parts of eastern Australia as the BOM predicts above average rainfall
2 years, 11 months ago

Wet autumn outlook for parts of eastern Australia as the BOM predicts above average rainfall

ABC  

For anyone looking for an end to the wet weather soaking Australia's east coast, the news isn't good — above average rainfall is set to continue. Key points: Above median rainfall is likely for northern and eastern Australia between April and June Australia is in its second consecutive La Niña year and a third isn't out of the question While …

The east coast rain and flooding seems endless. Where on Earth is all the water coming from?
3 years ago

The east coast rain and flooding seems endless. Where on Earth is all the water coming from?

ABC  

At any one time, Earth's atmosphere holds only about a week's worth of rain. But rainfall and floods have devastated Australia's eastern regions for weeks and more heavy rain is forecast. This research was part of a broader study into where Australia's rain comes from, and what changes moisture supply during both drought and heavy rain. We found most rain …

Drought-stricken outback Queensland celebrates after downpour brings hope for 'strong wet season'
3 years, 4 months ago

Drought-stricken outback Queensland celebrates after downpour brings hope for 'strong wet season'

ABC  

Residents in outback Queensland are celebrating as storms bring heavy rain to drought-stricken towns across the state. Key points: Parts of outback Queensland have welcomed record rainfall for November Residents are celebrating signs of a promising wet season to come While skies will clear over the weekend, the wet weather is expected to return On the fringe of the Simpson …

BOM declares La Niña alert as the east braces for storms this week
3 years, 5 months ago

BOM declares La Niña alert as the east braces for storms this week

ABC  

The Bureau of Meteorology has announced a La Niña alert, signalling a 70 per cent chance that the rainfall-encouraging climate driver will form in the coming months. Key points: BOM declares an alert indicating a 70pc chance of a La Niña forming in the coming months La Niña is typically associated with wetter-than-average conditions for northern and eastern Australia Heavy …

BOM declares La Niña over – but that doesn't mean the rain is done
3 years, 11 months ago

BOM declares La Niña over – but that doesn't mean the rain is done

ABC  

The Bureau of Meteorology has reset the El Niño Southern Oscillation outlook to inactive, meaning the 2020-21 La Niña is over. Key points: After a wet few months, the BOM officially declares the La Niña over Conditions over the Pacific Ocean are expected to return to neutral for the next few months But wetter-than-average conditions are still expected for the …

WA just sweltered through its second hottest year on record, according to BOM figures
4 years, 2 months ago

WA just sweltered through its second hottest year on record, according to BOM figures

ABC  

The Bureau of Meteorology has revealed 2020 was Western Australia's second-hottest year on record, trailing behind only 2019, and the fourth-hottest for the country as a whole. Key points: WA's mean daytime and night-time temperatures were both above average The state's rainfall was also slightly below normal, despite some good falls This year is set to begin wetter-than average for …

NSW farmers welcome 'unbelievable' rain as BOM warns La Niña could 'swing from drought to flood'
4 years, 5 months ago

NSW farmers welcome 'unbelievable' rain as BOM warns La Niña could 'swing from drought to flood'

ABC  

After four punishing years, the drought has finally broken at Rick Bennett's farm in central-west New South Wales. Key points: NSW has gone from being 99 per cent drought affected or in drought to just over 20 per cent Mr Bennett says harvesting a good crop would "completely turn our world around again" financially A La Niña weather event has …

La Niña will give us a wet summer. That's great weather for mozzies
4 years, 5 months ago

La Niña will give us a wet summer. That's great weather for mozzies

ABC  

The return of the La Niña weather pattern will see a wetter spring and summer in many parts of Australia. While we've seen more mosquitoes during past La Niña events, and we may well see more mosquitoes this year, this doesn't necessarily mean we'll see more related disease. The amount of rainfall each summer is also a key predictor for …

BOM declares a La Niña, signalling wet spring and summer likely for northern, eastern Australia
4 years, 5 months ago

BOM declares a La Niña, signalling wet spring and summer likely for northern, eastern Australia

ABC  

The Bureau of Meteorology has declared a La Niña is officially underway, signalling we could be in for a wet spring and summer. Key points: La Niñas are typically associated with wet conditions for northern and eastern Australia We can expect increased chances of flooding and cyclones this summer It also means the fire risk is at least looking better …

La Nina set to bring more cyclones to WA's north, but extra rain is unlikely to help the south-west
4 years, 6 months ago

La Nina set to bring more cyclones to WA's north, but extra rain is unlikely to help the south-west

ABC  

La Nina, the climate driver that typically brings enhanced rainfall to Australia, has been in the spotlight lately as it edges closer to reaching its threshold this spring. Key points: La Nina is likely to bring heavy rain to large parts of Australia WA's south-west is unlikely to benefit because of its geographic location La Nina usually brings more tropical …

Wet winter likely as speculation over La Nina and a negative IOD mounts
4 years, 11 months ago

Wet winter likely as speculation over La Nina and a negative IOD mounts

ABC  

It is looking more and more likely that Australia could be in for a wet few months going into winter. Key points: The good chances of rain are thanks to warm ocean temperatures around Australia The last time there was a strong negative IOD was in 2016 which was a very good cropping season It offers hope for people who …

BOM rain outlook is good news and the Darling River is flowing, but beware the wintery blast
4 years, 11 months ago

BOM rain outlook is good news and the Darling River is flowing, but beware the wintery blast

ABC  

It is raining over large parts of the south-east, there is finally a good rainfall outlook after years of drought, and there is a flood of water heading down the Darling River. Key points: Cold, wet conditions are expected to continue over the south-east, bringing welcome follow-up rain for inland areas The Darling River is flowing thanks to heavy rain …

Australia restricts water use in populous state, as drought persists
5 years, 9 months ago

Australia restricts water use in populous state, as drought persists

Deccan Chronicle  

Sydney: Australia’s most populous state of New South Wales on Tuesday imposed water restrictions for the first time in a decade with dam levels at just over 50 per cent due to a prolonged drought. New South Wales, home to about a third of Australia’s 25 million people and its biggest city Sydney, last imposed water restrictions in 2009. New …

Rain in south-eastern Australia will help cropping but much more needed to break drought
5 years, 10 months ago

Rain in south-eastern Australia will help cropping but much more needed to break drought

ABC  

Rain, and lots of it, has fallen across south-eastern Australia and is expected to continue for the next few days — but what will it mean for the southern cropping season and the drought? "There's a fairly complex situation evolving throughout south-eastern Australia," Dr Watkins said. Loading YouTube content "If that moisture collides with the system coming up from the …

What you need to know about droughts: Why they happen and how they are defined
6 years, 7 months ago

What you need to know about droughts: Why they happen and how they are defined

ABC  

Most Australians will be familiar with the concept, some very familiar of late. In southern Australia, droughts of the late 20th and early 21st centuries have been found to be the worst in the past 400 years, and droughts are expected to become more prevalent in the future. Global drought numbers and impacts 1900-2013 Continent Population Events People killed People …

How bad is the drought and why has it been so dry?
6 years, 9 months ago

How bad is the drought and why has it been so dry?

ABC  

This autumn has been the fourth-warmest on record in Australia, with below average rainfall for most of the country, according to the Bureau of Meteorology's autumn summary. "Many parts of central and eastern New South Wales have had well below average rainfall, really since April last year," Dr Trewin said. "We certainly don't have those long-term drought conditions in New …

Monsoon cheer as El Nino ends
8 years, 9 months ago

Monsoon cheer as El Nino ends

The Hindu  

Australia’s weather bureau said the withering >El Nino — among the strongest in history and responsible for two years of consecutive droughts and record summer temperatures in India — had ended. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology said on Tuesday that there was “…little chance of returning to El Niño levels, in which case mid-May will mark the end of the …

Experts unsure if El Nino will fade away
9 years ago

Experts unsure if El Nino will fade away

The Hindu  

A good number of meteorologists expect the monsoon in 2016 to be normal, though they are unclear whether the El Nino — a weather anomaly blamed for back-to-back droughts over India since 2014 — will completely fade away during the crucial rain months from June to September. Meteorologists, to whom The Hindu spoke to, said that “Nino neutral” conditions were …

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