研究：世界人口将在2064年达到峰值后开始下降

科学家预测，世界人口将在2064年达到97亿的峰值，然后就开始下降，到2100年将降至88亿，包括日本、意大利在内的23个国家的人口将减少一半，全球人口结构也将发生重大变化。 Photo by Jacek Dylag on Unsplash The world's population is likely to peak at 9.7 billion in 2064, and then decline to about 8.8 billion by the end of the century, as women get better access to education and contraception, a new study has found. 运用2017年全球疾病负担研究的数据，研究人员预测人口减少最快的地方将是亚洲、东欧和中欧。 The report authors project that the population of Japan will shrink from around 128 million people in 2017 to 60 million in 2100, Thailand will see a shrink from 71 to 35 million, Spain from 46 to 23 million, Italy from 61 to 31 million, Portugal from 11 to 5 million, and South Korea from 53 to 27 million. 他解释道：“更多人需要从政府领取福利金，无论是社保金还是医保金，而纳税的人更少了。” Researchers project that the population of sub-Saharan Africa could triple over the course of the century, from an estimated 1.03 billion in 2017 to 3.07 billion in 2100. 研究人员预计，撒哈拉以南非洲人口将在本世纪末增至原来的三倍，从2017年的10.3亿左右增加到2100年的30.7亿。 North Africa and the Middle East is the only other region predicted to have a larger population in 2100 than in 2017, with a predicted 978 million compared to 600 million. 除了撒哈拉以南非洲，预计人口会增加的地区只有北非和中东，该地区的人口预计将从2017年的6亿增加到2100年的9.78亿。 The study also predicts major changes in the global age structure as fertility falls and life expectancy increases, with an estimated 2.37 billion people over 65 years globally in 2100, compared with 1.7 billion under the age of 20.