Japan’s Delicate Balancing Act Toward China

Shortly after Prime Minister Kishida Fumio delivered his first post-election policy address before the Diet on December 6, Japan faced its first foreign policy challenge. As the number of the countries that announced a “diplomatic boycott” of the February 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing grew, especially after the U.S. announcement on December 6, “to boycott, or not to boycott” became a significant policy decision that could have a lasting impact on the Kishida government’s foreign policy. Following the Biden administration’s announcement of a U.S. “diplomatic boycott” of the Beijing Games, meaning the United States will not send any government officials to attend, Kishida told a brief press gaggle on December 7 that his government would make its own decision based on a “comprehensive assessment” of various factors. As 2022 marks the landmark 50th anniversary of China-Japan diplomatic normalization, Japan does not want to spoil the chance to re-adjust its China policy to one that will, in Kishida’s words, “pursue a constructive and stable relationship in which we insist on the issues that we must and yet pursue opportunities to tackle on our shared concerns while continue to urge China to behave responsibly.” The appointment of Hayashi Yoshimasa as foreign minister is considered a signal of Kishida’s intention to fine-tune his government’s China policy toward that end. At the same time, Kishida also identified upholding a liberal international order that places a premium on universal norms and values such as human rights and rule of law, including efforts to uphold a “free and open Indo-Pacific,” as the core foreign policy principle for his government.