Beware a Chinese Fall Stall

In July, when worries about China’s economic recovery were first beginning to percolate more widely, analysts fixated on a curious bit of language from the Politburo: the recovery was developing in a winding, “wave-like" manner. For another, the two surveys sent conflicting signals on exports: the official factory PMI showed new export orders falling faster, but Caixin’s survey had the decline moderating slightly, according to Goldman Sachs. View Full Image Then, a surge of pent-up demand released after the end of China’s “zero-Covid" lockdowns petered out after a few months as underlying structural problems, including a weak job market, deeply damaged property developers and household risk aversion, reasserted themselves. And with Country Garden, one of China’s largest developers, now fighting for survival after failing to pay its dollar debt, the challenges to a sustainable recovery of confidence in the housing market remain formidable. Sales at China’s top 100 property developers were only marginally better in October than in September, according to data released Tuesday by China Real Estate Information.