How will we know if the US economy is in a recession?
1 year, 10 months ago

How will we know if the US economy is in a recession?

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The second consecutive quarter of economic growth that the government reported Thursday underscored that the nation isn’t in a recession despite high inflation and the Federal Reserve’s fastest pace of interest rate hikes in four decades. The economy’s direction has confounded the Fed’s policymakers and many private economists ever since growth screeched to a halt in March 2020, when COVID-19 struck and 22 million Americans were suddenly thrown out of work. Fed officials have made clear that they’re willing to tip the economy into a recession if necessary to defeat high inflation, and most economists believe them. They expect the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes and high inflation to overwhelm consumers and businesses, forcing them to slow their spending and investment.

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History of this topic

A recession in America by 2024 looks likely
4 months, 1 week ago

A recession in America by 2024 looks likely

Live Mint  

Not long ago recessions seemed to strike America roughly once a decade. But because the world economy, asset markets and America’s politics are all fragile, it may yet have nasty and unpredictable consequences. An American recession would land another blow on vulnerable parts of the global economy by curbing demand for their exports. But after over a decade of cheap …

Experts are warning of a global recession. Here’s what that actually means
4 months, 2 weeks ago

Experts are warning of a global recession. Here’s what that actually means

The Independent  

The latest headlines from our reporters across the US sent straight to your inbox each weekday Your briefing on the latest headlines from across the US Please enter a valid email address Please enter a valid email address SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Please try again later {{ /verifyErrors …

Why the recession still isn’t here
6 months, 2 weeks ago

Why the recession still isn’t here

Live Mint  

Steady hiring continues to fuel consumer spending and, in turn, an economic expansion unlike any the U.S. has seen. “Last year, at the first sign of higher rates, people ran for the hills, so it seems like the consumer is more battle-hardened now," he said. “If you keep interest rates at this level, there will be folks who just can’t …

Will the US unemployment rate continue at historic lows?
8 months, 3 weeks ago

Will the US unemployment rate continue at historic lows?

Al Jazeera  

US job growth has continued at a steady clip in the months since the COVID-19 pandemic, but experts are looking for warning signs. All eyes will be on Friday’s US unemployment numbers to see how many jobs were added in March and whether the unemployment rate continues to stay in its historically low range or if it is time for …

Recession has struck some of the world’s top economies. The US keeps defying expectations
10 months, 1 week ago

Recession has struck some of the world’s top economies. The US keeps defying expectations

Associated Press  

NEW YORK — As some of the world’s biggest economies stumble into recession, the United States keeps chugging along. Yet in the United States, the economy motored ahead in last year’s fourth quarter for a sixth straight quarter of growth. It’s blown past many predictions coming into last year that a recession seemed inevitable because of high interest rates meant …

Banking CEOs warn of economic uncertainty: Is a US recession on the horizon?
1 year ago

Banking CEOs warn of economic uncertainty: Is a US recession on the horizon?

Hindustan Times  

Wall Street is buzzing with concerns as top banking executives, including Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan, Brian Moynihan of Bank of America, and Jane Fraser of Citigroup, testify before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson/File Photo Soaring inflation has plagued the nation, decreasing from 9 percent in June 2022 to 3.2 percent in October 2023 but still exceeding the Fed's …

Economists predict US inflation will keep cooling and the economy can avoid a recession
1 year ago

Economists predict US inflation will keep cooling and the economy can avoid a recession

Associated Press  

NEW YORK — Most business economists think the U.S. economy could avoid a recession next year, even if the job market ends up weakening under the weight of high interest rates, according to a survey released Monday. Most of the surveyed economists expect inflation to continue to slow in 2024, though many say it may not get all the way …

A Recession Is No Longer the Consensus
1 year, 2 months ago

A Recession Is No Longer the Consensus

Live Mint  

Economists are turning optimistic on the U.S. economy. In the latest quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal, business and academic economists lowered the probability of a recession within the next year, from 54% on average in July to a more optimistic 48%. View Full Image “The probability of recession continues to recede in the U.S. as the banking turmoil …

US leading indicators point to recession starting soon
1 year, 5 months ago

US leading indicators point to recession starting soon

India Today  

An index designed to track turns in US business cycles fell for the 15th straight month in June, dragged down by a weakening consumer outlook and increased unemployment claims, marking the longest streak of decreases since the lead-up to the 2007-2009 recession. The Conference Board on Thursday said its Leading Economic Index, a measure that anticipates future economic activity, declined …

The temporary madness of modern politics: is our strongest market a harbinger of recession?
1 year, 6 months ago

The temporary madness of modern politics: is our strongest market a harbinger of recession?

ABC  

Stephen Hawking, the scientific genius who solved some of the deepest secrets of our universe, summed up the fundamental problems facing modern economists. Rates and jobs part ways Not so long ago, in time before we were all sent home, the "natural rate" of unemployment was considered to be around 5 per cent. Inflation didn't immediately take off after Australia's …

How will we know if the US economy is in a recession?
1 year, 7 months ago

How will we know if the US economy is in a recession?

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The government’s report Thursday that the economy grew at a 1.1% annual rate last quarter signaled that one of the most-anticipated recessions in recent U.S. history has yet to arrive. The economy’s direction has confounded the Fed’s policymakers and many private economists ever since growth screeched to a halt in March 2020, when COVID-19 struck and 22 million …

How will we know if the US economy is in a recession?
1 year, 7 months ago

How will we know if the US economy is in a recession?

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. The economy's direction has confounded the Fed's policymakers and …

2023 US recession now expected to start later than predicted
1 year, 9 months ago

2023 US recession now expected to start later than predicted

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — A majority of the nation’s business economists expect a U.S. recession to begin later this year than they had previously forecast, after a series of reports have pointed to a surprisingly resilient economy despite steadily higher interest rates. Fifty-eight percent of 48 economists who responded to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics envision a recession …

Can US avoid a recession? As inflation eases, optimism rises
1 year, 11 months ago

Can US avoid a recession? As inflation eases, optimism rises

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — For months, the outlook for the U.S. economy has been a mostly bleak one: Inflation hitting a four-decade high, consumer spending weakening, interest rates surging. These trends are raising expectations that the Fed might manage to engineer an often-elusive “soft landing,” whereby the economy slows but doesn’t go into reverse and unemployment rate rises slightly but stays low. …

US recession a growing fear as Fed plans to keep rates high
2 years ago

US recession a growing fear as Fed plans to keep rates high

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — After scaling 40-year highs, inflation in the United States has been slowly easing since summer. We’re going to break inflation or we’re going to break the economy.’’ Many investors had convinced themselves that with inflation pressures gradually easing, the Fed might soon declare some progress in their fight and perhaps even reverse course and cut rates sometime in …

Despite high-profile layoffs, most workers likely to keep jobs if recession comes
2 years ago

Despite high-profile layoffs, most workers likely to keep jobs if recession comes

LA Times  

The global economy is stuttering, and some of the world’s biggest names are already laying off thousands of employees. Business Fed officials signal slower pace of interest rate hikes coming ‘soon’ Since the Fed met earlier this month, economic data have shown moderate growth with some signs of slowing inflation amid a still strong labor market. Adrian Orr said the …

EXPLAINER: How will we know if the U.S. is in recession?
2 years, 1 month ago

EXPLAINER: How will we know if the U.S. is in recession?

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy grew faster than expected in the July-September quarter, the government reported Thursday, underscoring that the United States is not in a recession despite distressingly high inflation and interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The economy’s direction has confounded the Fed’s policymakers and many private economists ever since growth screeched to a halt in March …

Is the US economy in a recession and taking the world with it?
2 years, 2 months ago

Is the US economy in a recession and taking the world with it?

Al Jazeera  

The US is facing rising recession fears as the Federal Reserve remains bullish in fighting high inflation. The United States is facing rising recession fears as the Federal Reserve, the country’s central bank, remains bullish in fighting high inflation and officials increasingly talk about the need to impose some economic pain to get price pressures under control, several economists told …

US economy shrank from April through June, second time in a row
2 years, 2 months ago

US economy shrank from April through June, second time in a row

Al Jazeera  

The United States economy continues to send mixed signals with some believing it is on the brink of a recession while others point to a stronger than usual jobs market. Battered by surging consumer prices and rising interest rates, the United States economy shrank at a 0.6 percent annual rate from April through June, the government has announced, unchanged from …

EXPLAINER: How do we know when a recession has begun?
2 years, 3 months ago

EXPLAINER: How do we know when a recession has begun?

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve sent a sobering message Wednesday after it announced its latest big interest rate hike: It plans to keep raising rates as long as it takes to conquer the worst inflation bout in decades — even at the risk of causing a recession in the process. Given the strength of the job market — the unemployment …

Powell: Higher rates unlikely to cause deep US recession
2 years, 3 months ago

Powell: Higher rates unlikely to cause deep US recession

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The last time the Federal Reserve faced inflation as high as it is now, in the early 1980s, it jacked up interest rates to double-digit levels — and in the process caused a deep recession and sharply higher unemployment. “We think we can avoid the very high social costs that Paul Volcker and the Fed had to bring …

As recession fears grow, strong US hiring is likely slowing
2 years, 4 months ago

As recession fears grow, strong US hiring is likely slowing

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. “Overall conditions aren’t nearly as strong as what we …

United States recession fears grow as economy contracts for second quarter
2 years, 4 months ago

United States recession fears grow as economy contracts for second quarter

ABC  

The United States economy has unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter, with consumer spending growing at its slowest pace in two years and business spending declining, raising speculation the economy is on the cusp of a recession. Key points: Prices for groceries, petrol and other basics increased at the fastest pace since 1981 Job growth averaged 456,700 per month in …

US economy shrinks for a 2nd quarter, raising recession fear
2 years, 4 months ago

US economy shrinks for a 2nd quarter, raising recession fear

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy shrank from April through June for a second straight quarter, contracting at a 0.9% annual pace and raising fears that the nation may be approaching a recession. “The fact that the economy created 2.7 million payrolls in the first half of the year would seem to argue against an official recession call for now.” Still, …

EXPLAINER: How do we know when a recession has begun?
2 years, 4 months ago

EXPLAINER: How do we know when a recession has begun?

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy has contracted for two straight quarters, intensifying fears that the nation is on the cusp of a recession — if not already in one — barely two years after the pandemic recession officially ended. While most economists — and Fed Chair Jerome Powell — have said they don’t think the economy is in recession, many …

US economy sending mixed signals: Here’s what it all means
54 years, 11 months ago

US economy sending mixed signals: Here’s what it all means

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy is caught in an awkward, painful place. Here’s a look at the economic vital signs that are sending frustratingly mixed signals to policymakers, businesses and forecasters: ___ THE OVERALL ECONOMY As measured by the nation’s gross domestic product — the broadest gauge of output — the economy has looked positively sickly so far this year. …

US Economy Shrinks 0.9% In June 2022 Quarter, 2nd Straight Drop; Raises Fears Of Recession
2 years, 4 months ago

US Economy Shrinks 0.9% In June 2022 Quarter, 2nd Straight Drop; Raises Fears Of Recession

News 18  

The US economy contracted again in the second quarter amid aggressive monetary policy tightening from the Federal Reserve to combat high inflation, which could fan financial market fears that the economy was already in recession. But the National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of recessions in the United States defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic …

US not yet in recession and 4 other takeaways from the Fed
2 years, 4 months ago

US not yet in recession and 4 other takeaways from the Fed

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Jerome Powell delivered a tough message at the start of a news conference Wednesday: Inflation is way too high, and the Federal Reserve is laser-focused on taming it with higher borrowing costs. With the Fed’s benchmark interest rate now at a level that’s believed to neither stimulate nor restrain growth, Powell said the pace of rate hikes could …

US economy shrinks for a second quarter, fuelling recession fears
2 years, 4 months ago

US economy shrinks for a second quarter, fuelling recession fears

Al Jazeera  

The fall in US GDP comes on the heels of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, as Chair Jerome Powell says growth needs to slow. The US economy shrank for a second straight quarter, raising chances of a recession, as decades-high inflation undercut consumer spending and Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes stymied business investment and housing demand. The report illustrates how …

What does a US recession mean for the global economy?
2 years, 4 months ago

What does a US recession mean for the global economy?

The Telegraph  

The United States has entered a recession after a surprise contraction during the second quarter of the year. It followed a 1.6pc annualised decline in the first quarter – marking two quarters of negative growth. That is a so-called technical recession, and almost anywhere in the world would likely be recorded as an official recession. The US works a little …

US economy sending mixed signals: Here’s what it all means
2 years, 4 months ago

US economy sending mixed signals: Here’s what it all means

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy is caught in an awkward, painful place. Here’s a look at the economic vital signs that are sending frustratingly mixed signals to policymakers, businesses and forecasters: ___ THE OVERALL ECONOMY As measured by the nation’s gross domestic product — the broadest gauge of output — the economy has looked positively sickly so far this year. …

Yellen downplays US recession risk as economic reports loom
2 years, 5 months ago

Yellen downplays US recession risk as economic reports loom

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Sunday said the U.S. economy is slowing but pointed to healthy hiring as proof that it is not yet in recession. Yellen spoke on NBC’s “Meet the Press” just before a slew of economic reports will be released this week that will shed light on an economy currently besieged by rampant inflation and …

As Fed tightens, economists worry it will go too far
2 years, 5 months ago

As Fed tightens, economists worry it will go too far

Live Mint  

Economists increasingly expect the Federal Reserve, in its efforts to push down inflation, to raise rates enough to trigger a recession, with many worrying the central bank will go too far. “Fiscal and monetary policy was left too loose for too long and now the Fed is playing catch-up and this always comes with a chance of overshoot," said James …

Nomura Says Many Major Economies Will Hit Recession In 2023
2 years, 5 months ago

Nomura Says Many Major Economies Will Hit Recession In 2023

News 18  

A report by Nomura Holdings Inc revealed many major economies will enter recessions over the next 12 months. Nomura said the Eurozone, the UK, Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia and the US will fall into recession in the research note published by Rob Subbaraman and Si Ying Toh. In the US, Nomura predicted a shallow recession but a long one …

What is a recession? When is the next one going to begin? – Firstpost
2 years, 5 months ago

What is a recession? When is the next one going to begin? – Firstpost

Firstpost  

According to America’s National Bureau of Economic Research, a recession is ‘a significant decline in economic activity’ that is widespread and lasts several months. That means not only shrinking GDP but also declining incomes, employment, industrial production and retail sales Chaotic stock markets, sky-high interest rates and the pain of inflation have left one question at the top of Americans’ …

Yes, a recession looks inevitable. But it may not be that bad. Here’s why
2 years, 6 months ago

Yes, a recession looks inevitable. But it may not be that bad. Here’s why

LA Times  

People pass Nordstrom Rack in downtown Los Angeles on March 15. Many other leaders of businesses, small and large, as well as workers, are bracing for harder times, with fears stoked by the Federal Reserve’s plans for more fat interest rate increases to combat high inflation. “We’re skating on the edge of recession, especially with the Fed bringing out these …

EXPLAINER: Just how high is the risk of another recession?
2 years, 6 months ago

EXPLAINER: Just how high is the risk of another recession?

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Inflation is at a 40-year high. That said, Farooqi cautioned, “the economy faces headwinds.” Among the signs that recession risks are rising: High inflation has proved far more entrenched and persistent than many economists — and the Fed — had expected: Consumer prices rose 8.6% last month from a year earlier, the biggest annual 12-month jump since 1981. …

EXPLAINER: Recession fears grow. But how high is the risk?
2 years, 7 months ago

EXPLAINER: Recession fears grow. But how high is the risk?

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Inflation is at a 40-year high. And when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke at a news conference last week, he reinforced the central bank’s determination to do whatever it might take to curb inflation, including raising interest rates so high as to weaken the economy. “Recession risks are low now but elevated in 2023 as inflation could …

What is a recession, and how scared should we be?
2 years, 7 months ago

What is a recession, and how scared should we be?

CNN  

New York CNN Business — Around the world, warning signs of a recession are flashing. “We will get a major recession,” Deutsche Bank economists warned last month, staking out the more bearish position on Wall Street. Bank of America, in the still-grim-but-less-dire camp, said the mood in financial markets has been “recessionary.” Goldman Sachs is among the more optimistic of …

Recession risk is rising, economists say
2 years, 8 months ago

Recession risk is rising, economists say

Live Mint  

Economists see a growing risk of recession as the relentlessly strong U.S. economy whips up inflation, likely bringing a heavy-handed response from the Federal Reserve. “Risk of a recession is rising due to the series of supply shocks cascading throughout the economy as the Fed lifts rates to address inflation," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP. On …

The labor shortage could lead to a recession next year
2 years, 10 months ago

The labor shortage could lead to a recession next year

CNN  

Editor’s Note: Gad Levanon is the chief economist at the Burning Glass Institute. So with the central bank expected to raise rates next month, barring a major impact on the US economy from the war in Europe, the question remains: Can the Fed contain inflation without triggering a recession? In the second half of 2022, the Federal Reserve may find …

We're not in recession now? Here's what today's GDP figures mean
3 years, 3 months ago

We're not in recession now? Here's what today's GDP figures mean

ABC  

Today's GDP figures show the economy grew by 0.7 per cent in the June quarter. Economic activity grew by 0.7 per cent in the June quarter, following growth of 1.9 per cent in the March quarter "We should remind ourselves that the Australian economy was booming for a lot of the second quarter and some of the monthly data was …

The recession is technically over but for wages and jobs, the recovery is a long way away
4 years ago

The recession is technically over but for wages and jobs, the recovery is a long way away

ABC  

It's a big bounce back, undeniably, but we're not out of the woods yet. The 3.3 per cent boost to Australia's economic growth from July to September is stronger than most anticipated, but keep in mind the base it's coming off: a 7 per cent fall in the prior three months, as COVID-19 health restrictions shut down large tracts of …

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